ATL: GABRIELLE - Models

[ronjon]

The ukmet was the best model at predicting genesis in 2011 according to Jeff masters.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It sure would be funny if it turns out the CMC sniffed this system out before any other model did.

[hurricaneCW]

It sure would be funny if it turns out the CMC sniffed this system out before any other model did.

A blind squirrel eventually finds a nut, so it's not impossible for it to get one right.

[gatorcane]

CMC is going nuts with development. Here it is at 180 hours and you can see invest 97L in the Bahamas with three other areas out there, strangely another one right next to 97L:

[tolakram]

The 12Z euro shows more robust vorticity south of PR this run, and also lower wind shear.





Shear image from Weather Underground: http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/?zoom=4&rad=0&wxsn=0&svr=0&cams=0&sat=0&riv=0&mm=1&mm.mdl=ECMWF&mm.type=SURPRE&mm.hour=0&mm.opa=100&mm.clk=0&hur=0&fire=0&tor=0&ndfd=0&pix=0&dir=0&ads=0&tfk=0&fodors=0&ski=0&ls=0&rad2=0

Vorticity image from http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

00z BAMS.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0038 UTC SUN SEP 1 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL972013) 20130901 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130901 0000 130901 1200 130902 0000 130902 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.0N 56.9W 15.2N 59.2W 15.3N 61.2W 15.2N 63.2W
BAMD 15.0N 56.9W 15.1N 58.6W 15.2N 60.3W 15.0N 61.7W
BAMM 15.0N 56.9W 14.9N 58.9W 14.7N 60.7W 14.4N 62.3W
LBAR 15.0N 56.9W 15.3N 59.3W 15.6N 61.7W 15.7N 64.1W
SHIP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS
DSHP 25KTS 26KTS 29KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130903 0000 130904 0000 130905 0000 130906 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.3N 64.9W 15.9N 68.7W 17.7N 73.1W 19.9N 77.9W
BAMD 15.0N 63.2W 15.7N 66.6W 18.0N 70.7W 20.6N 74.4W
BAMM 14.3N 63.9W 14.7N 67.2W 16.6N 71.4W 18.8N 75.8W
LBAR 15.8N 66.4W 16.7N 71.2W 19.5N 75.2W 23.2N 78.0W
SHIP 42KTS 57KTS 69KTS 77KTS
DSHP 42KTS 57KTS 69KTS 77KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 15.0N LONCUR = 56.9W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 14KT
LATM12 = 15.0N LONM12 = 54.0W DIRM12 = 274DEG SPDM12 = 14KT
LATM24 = 14.8N LONM24 = 51.3W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 100NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[cycloneye]

[Dean4Storms]

GFS based guidance is doing nothing with this at all.

[jinftl]

speculation for sure - esp since there is not across the board model support for this doing anything - but this is one map to get folks at least a bit interested down my way for starters

[toad strangler]

speculation for sure - esp since there is not across the board model support for this doing anything - but this is one map to get folks at least a bit interested down my way for starters

That general track is cheese grater city regardless of what would develop beforehand

** THIS IS NOT A FORECAST, IT IS AN OPINION **

[blp]

More models. GFS does not keep it after 72hrs

[blp]

I see the GFS has a low in the ECarb. in 54hrs. It is starting to bite a little.

[gatorcane]

The GFS and ECMWF are both predicting that the Upper-level low currently centered just north of the Dominican Republic will be enough to kill this invest and severely disrupt any kind of low-level structure.

By the time the invest and associated wave make it to the Western Caribbean in 4-5 days, it would be have so disrupted, it would not be able to develop despite both models showing decent upper-level conditions there.

They may be right but I would by no means say that this won't develop once it makes it to the Western Caribbean just because these models right now are not showing anything developing there.

Actually I think there is a chance it will as this invest has such a vigorous low-level circulation and structure, despite being heavily sheared. The MJO pulse should also help this invest keep enough (pulsing) convection as it traverses the Caribbean as it interacts with the DR ULL which should generate some convection also.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

I don't understand what is driving the models WSW. The GFS brings the vorticity over SA and I think that's what kills it.

[gatorcane]

Blp - it is not moving the invest into South America. It stretches out the low in a WSW to ENE orientation over the next few days and the low ends up dissipating due to strong WSW shear from the DR ULL.

The wave 97L is associated with still tracks west through the Caribbean towards the Western Caribbean over the next 4-5 days.

Check out the 00Z loop from the NCEP site instead:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle=20130803%2012%20UTC&param=precip_p12&fourpan=no&imageSize=

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I still say if this thing goes over the mountains of Hispaniola, and then Cuba as well, stick a fork in it it'll be done.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[blp]

Blp - it is not moving the invest into South America. It stretches out the low in a WSW to ENE orientation over the next few days and the low ends up dissipating due to strong WSW shear from the DR ULL.

The wave 97L is associated with still tracks west through the Caribbean towards the Western Caribbean over the next 4-5 days.

Check out the 00Z loop from the NCEP site instead:
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=gfs&area=atlantic&cycle=20130803%2012%20UTC&param=precip_p12&fourpan=no&imageSize=

I see what your are saying. Thanks

[blp]

00z CMC continues to be bullish. Starts to develop it well in E.Carib. around 48hrs

[blp]

Surprise! 00z Navgem very bullish and back on board again. It starts out developing a vorticity east of our area but ends up similar to CMC in the end.

[ROCK]

you can add the NAM to the CMC and NAVGEM