Surface Trough in Western Atlantic

Hurricaneman · #1 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Fri Aug 30, 2013 11:23 pm

the last couple of runs of the GFS seem to be latching on to this area. It seems to have convection with it and low shear and I do think this one has a better chance than 25L does. Does anyone think this has a chance

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Riptide · #2 Postby **Riptide** » Sat Aug 31, 2013 2:53 am

Yeah, I like this area. Thanks for pointing it out and one has to expect at least one of these areas will develop next week.

Hurricaneman · #3 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Sat Aug 31, 2013 10:11 am

Riptide wrote:Yeah, I like this area. Thanks for pointing it out and one has to expect at least one of these areas will develop next week.

The thing is its going to depend on if it stays at 12N or gets above 20N because if its between those latitudes then it probably won't develop due to shear

#4 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:49 am

Wave is introduced at 12z.

#5 Postby **Fego** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 10:57 am

I didn't see this topic and opened a new one but already I deleted it. As I said in that nonexisting topic :lol:

a few models pass this systems through the NE Caribbean.

ninel conde · #6 Postby **ninel conde** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 11:06 am

Hurricaneman wrote:the last couple of runs of the GFS seem to be latching on to this area. It seems to have convection with it and low shear and I do think this one has a better chance than 25L does. Does anyone think this has a chance

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

GFS is showing a well developed storm?

#7 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:31 pm

I circled the area in yellow. 97L is circled in orange. UKMET and CMC develop this system:

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

#8 Postby **cycloneye** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:35 pm

gatorcane wrote:While 97L will probably take focus this week, the area behind 97L currently located in the ITCZ between 40W and 50W looks a little suspicious with some convection and some cyclonic turning. Both the UKMET and CMC develop this system.

Hi gatorcane. Moved thread you made as there is another thread for this area.

#9 Postby **gatorcane** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:38 pm

cycloneye wrote:
gatorcane wrote:While 97L will probably take focus this week, the area behind 97L currently located in the ITCZ between 40W and 50W looks a little suspicious with some convection and some cyclonic turning. Both the UKMET and CMC develop this system.

Hi gatorcane. Moved thread you made as there is another thread for this area.

Ah thanks didn't see that we had a thread on it already

galaxy401 · #10 Postby **galaxy401** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:40 pm

It's right behind 97L. If 97L develops then it will put problems for this system.

leanne_uk · #11 Postby **leanne_uk** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 4:59 pm

What's the latest with the models? I can't load them on my phone today for some reason :/

Gustywind · #12 Postby **Gustywind** » Sun Sep 01, 2013 7:34 pm

Newly formed low pressure is attached with this twave...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 PM EDT SUN SEP 01 2013

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLC EXTENDS FROM 18N46W
TO A 1011 MB LOW NEAR 11N48W MOVING W NEAR 10 KT. WAVE IS
EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 10N-15N BETWEEN 43W-50W.

Gustywind · #13 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 5:59 am

No more mention of the low pressure attached with the twave...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N47W TO 11N49W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE AS
DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. SCATTERED
CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE FROM 11N-16N
BETWEEN 45W-52W.

Gustywind · #14 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 8:14 am

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT MON SEP 02 2013

A TROPICAL WAVE AXIS EXTENDS FROM 18N49W TO 11N50W MOVING W NEAR
10 KT. THE WAVE CONTINUES EMBEDDED WITHIN A SURGE OF DEEP
MOISTURE AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AN
INCREASE IN CONVECTION HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE LAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 12N-17N BETWEEN 46W-
55W.

Gustywind · #15 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 10:50 am

Looks like convection is really on the increase with this system... and i wonder if convection continues on this trend, maybe we may have an Invest from that during the next 24-36h? Any thoughts about that?
Opinions are welcomed as we're heading in the peak of this season and anything can happen from "nothing".

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-rb.html

#16 Postby **northjaxpro** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 11:04 am

Actually, this wave IMO just may have a better shot at developing than 97L. Convection really has build up with this wave this morning.

Gustywind · #17 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 11:07 am

northjaxpro wrote:Actually, this wave IMO just may have a better shot at developing than 97L. Convection really has build up with this wave this morning.

Yeah, that's right, so let's keep an eye on it i do think IMO that 97L is creating a more moist atmosphere in vicinity of this twave. I don't what the models do with it. If someone have links for the models they could post them to have a better idea of what could happen with this feature close the EC. Maybe rainy days ahead? Let's wait and see.

Hurricaneman · #18 Postby **Hurricaneman** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 1:52 pm

This system looks real interesting, it seems to have good outflow in all quadrants and seems to have ever increasing vorticity, I would not be surprised if this becomes an invest in the next day or so

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Gustywind · #19 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:05 pm

2 PM Tropical Weather Discussion.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 17N52W 14N51W 10N50W
MOVING WESTWARD 10 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS
STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 50W AND 53W. ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 6N
TO 17N BETWEEN 47W AND 56W.

Gustywind · #20 Postby **Gustywind** » Mon Sep 02, 2013 2:08 pm

I wonder if interactions might happen with 97L and this twave? It's that possible? Someone have an idea about that?

Surface Trough in Western Atlantic

Surface Trough in Western Atlantic

Re: spin in ITCZ ESE of pouch 25 at 12N 38W

Re: spin in ITCZ ESE of pouch 25 at 12N 38W

Re: Tropical Wave ESE of 97L

Re: Tropical Wave ESE of 97L

Re: Tropical Wave ESE of 97L

Possible Development with Disturbance Behind 97L?

Re: Possible Development with Disturbance Behind 97L?

Re: Possible Development with Disturbance Behind 97L?

Re:

Re: Tropical Wave ESE of 97L

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