any one backing off ther #'s?

[pgoss11]

I'm sticking to my forecast of 3 in August. I think that's a reasonable bet. I feel when the season finally gets going it's going to be busy. I have high hopes!

[hurricanedude]

well my preseason guess was 17/6/3
My 1st update was 14/4/2
My last update..as of today 12/3/1

[CYCLONE MIKE]

See nothing wrong with that. I'm sure they f things don't change soon many more will begrudgingly follow

[Steve H.]

IMO, if you made your predictions it's too late to adjust at this point. That's a Monday morning quarterback!!!!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

So you don't agree with all the forecasting agencies being able to make updated forecasts come august 1st even every two weeks like csu does?

[cycloneye]

Here are the 161 members who participated in the 2013 Preseason Storm2k Poll for all to review but the poll will not make changes to anyone numbers as it has been every year since 2004.

[Steve H.]

No that's not what I'm saying. The folks on this board is what I'm talking about who made predictions,

[SFLcane]

If the current projected MJO comes even close to verifying we may still attain seasonal numbers predicted. Could be a VERY active few weeks ahead.

[TheStormExpert]

If the current projected MJO comes even close to verifying we may still attain seasonal numbers predicted. Could be a VERY active few weeks ahead.

If this active burst finally comes through what are your thoughts are possible tracks and areas possibly threatened?

[TheStormExpert]

I seriously think this season was way overhyped before it even started. People on this board were posting some of the highest #'s in the numbers poll since the 2005 season. Also there was the big hype of how the U.S. had a above-much above chance of being hit by at least several hurricanes. The forecasters hyped this season like it was expected to produce 2010 season #'s. This just goes to show you that forecasting the weather well in advance still kind of sucks, IMO.

[tolakram]

Nah, lots of reasonable numbers in the poll

I think I have a chance for 3 in August, but I wish I picked 2. My 16/9/3 could still happen, or perhaps I should say ... I haven't been mathematically eliminated yet.

we are at 6/0/0

rest of season needs to be 10/9/3

Every storm but one from here on out needs to be a hurricane. If that pans out I sincerely hope they are all fish.

[chaser1]

So you don't agree with all the forecasting agencies being able to make updated forecasts come august 1st even every two weeks like csu does?

Hell no! Steve, I agree with your first point about all of us "Monday Morning Quarterbacking", but that doesnt mean I'm any more inclined to let the "big boys" off the hook. This coming from someone who themself predicted a "butt-load" full of megacanes this year! Many of us just screwed up and read the tea leaves wrong. Difference is, we're not paid to be right.

Even still, remarks such as "The forecasters hyped this season like it was expected to produce 2010 season #'s..." sound as if they were made by some "storm expert" who never would have predicted a 1/2 dozen major hurricanes this year, right??? I think it does us well to MAN UP and just admit that "they" got it wrong. I know my 17/13/6 might just be a tad off LOL. Sometimes we all just have to accept that CaCa Happens from time to time and that we still have much to learn. But before we all start to cast stones, let us make sure that our glass house doesn't lie directly in the path of whats yet to come (even if that is just another tropical storm)

[ninel conde]

i think once an organization makes a prediction then they are loathe to admit it was wrong so they keep finding reasons to be right and just make minor adjustments like we saw earlier this month.

[weatherwindow]

Good morning, Chaser, Mike et al...Originally, I had in mind a 1950 sort of season...Low(14)storm total, high percentage of canes(7) and majors(6)...well at least my storm total is in the running but thats about it. Made no adjustment from my original estimates. However, in order for mine to verify, everything that forms from here on out had better be a major LOL ..Grtz from KW, Rich

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

well, I thought 16/7/4, and I still feel that the season is really in front of us. We had enough SAL going on to keep a lid on things and a bunch of upper level lows in the Caribbean that kept things in check, but now there doesn't appear to be much to stop any helathy waves that roll off of Africa from developing. Hopefully they develop right away and are fish. But if waves can get into the western Atlantic, then we could be lookign at a train of activity that could threaten landmasses/populations.
I suspect this will be simply a late season. The SSTs have had no "relief", and the pressure cooker is a bubbling. I think we will have quite a few storms in late Sep and October this year. The histroy is yet to be written...possibly an "epic" fall is in store.

question: when is the next MJO visit after the early Sep one?

We've seen storms develop into December if the SSTs can support that....no reason why they couldn't develop well into Oct & Nov this year. Too early to cry "season cancel" in my opinion.

May be interesting to look back on these posts later, when/if a bunch of storms come to pass and this proves to be a busy season after all.

We're just getting started...

[stormlover2013]

come on now you can't change ur predictions lol, stick to ur guns, we have had 6 names storms and the season ends in november, we probably will have 4 name storms in sept, 2-4 in oct and might get lucky and have one in november and that makes it above average season if it happens, but no reason to jump the gun and change ur predictions.

[Steve]

Also there was the big hype of how the U.S. had a above-much above chance of being hit by at least several hurricanes.

It is August 28. This hasn't necessarily changed. It's an argument that can and should be made in early November since the U.S. rarely has impacts in November (there are a few exceptions).

[Blown Away]

I said 17/8/3, just don't see 8 hurricanes from now until the end...The storm numbers may get near 17 b/c of hybrid/wimpy TS's in northern Atlantic come late Oct/Nov...I'm sticking w/ my prediction but 8 hurricanes now seems unlikely...

[hurricanes1234]

At the end of the season, I would expect 12-14 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes in the Atlantic. The main reason for this is because of persistently hostile conditions (extremely dry, sinking air and a lack of unstable air) through late July into late August. In the eastern Pacific, there has been a below-average number of strong storms, but the basin has had many hurricanes so far. By the end of the season, I would expect 14-17 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes and 0-3 major hurricanes. The only reason I've lowered the number of major hurricanes is because there has been a lack of intense storms thus far, probably due to the same lack of instability. However, the number of hurricanes seems to be above-average.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hurricaneman]

At the end of the season, I would expect 12-14 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, and 0-2 major hurricanes in the Atlantic. The main reason for this is because of persistently hostile conditions (extremely dry, sinking air and a lack of unstable air) through late July into late August. In the eastern Pacific, there has been a below-average number of strong storms, but the basin has had many hurricanes so far. By the end of the season, I would expect 14-17 named storms, 8-12 hurricanes and 0-3 major hurricanes. The only reason I've lowered the number of major hurricanes is because there has been a lack of intense storms thus far, probably due to the same lack of instability. However, the number of hurricanes seems to be above-average.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

the thing is I don't see much in the way of dry air but I do agree that there is alot of stable air, but due to the upper atmosphere being too warm causing a cap on the Atlantic making it really hard for thunderstorms to develop and if theres only spotty t'storms there will not be tropical cyclones or if there is they end up being weak

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products