17.8N 135.9E
15 kts - 1010 mbars
Nothing on JTWC or JMA yet.
WPAC: INVEST 93W
Moderator: S2k Moderators
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
WPAC: INVEST 93W
0 likes
54° 11' 59'' N, 9° 9' 20'' E
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
Boomer Sooner!
Go Broncos! Go Cards! Go Niners!
- Daniel
- mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3617
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
there's a circulation but it's also struggling to survive due to wind shear
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 19.0N 138.3E,
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 272050Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, YET DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
271406Z INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
APPROXIMATELY 500 NM NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH A 272050Z SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, YET DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING CONVECTION. SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM
271406Z INDICATES A WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX
WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES MODERATE TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- Extratropical94
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 3535
- Age: 29
- Joined: Wed Oct 20, 2010 6:36 am
- Location: Hamburg, Germany
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.3N
137.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ALBEIT DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 280415Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETERY DATA INDICATES A
WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VWS WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND APPROACHING DRY AIR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
137.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 137.5E, APPROXIMATELY 564 NM
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, ALBEIT DEFINED, FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A 280415Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A
DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR BEGINNING TO BE ENTRAINED FROM THE NORTH
AND SOUTH OF THE CIRCULATION. RECENT SCATTEROMETERY DATA INDICATES A
WEAK CIRCULATION WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOT MAX WINDS ALONG THE WESTERN
AND SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLES. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE
TO STRONG (20-30 KNOTS) VWS WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF
DEEP CONVECTION AND APPROACHING DRY AIR, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 18.9N
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. FORMATIVE BANDING IS ALSO APPARENT ON A 291212Z
METOPA MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY ABATED TO MODERATE VALUES (15-25 KNOTS). NUMERIC
MODELS PREDICT A WEAK DEVELOPMENT FRON THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
CONVECTION AND ABATED VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
135.3E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.9E, APPROXIMATELY 535 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION THAT IS BEING SHEARED TO THE WEST
OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. FORMATIVE BANDING IS ALSO APPARENT ON A 291212Z
METOPA MICROWAVE PASS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR HAS SLIGHTLY ABATED TO MODERATE VALUES (15-25 KNOTS). NUMERIC
MODELS PREDICT A WEAK DEVELOPMENT FRON THIS AREA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. IN VIEW OF THE IMPROVED
CONVECTION AND ABATED VWS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
MEDIUM.
0 likes
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
- xtyphooncyclonex
- Category 5
- Posts: 3688
- Age: 22
- Joined: Sat Dec 08, 2012 9:07 am
- Location: Cebu City
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: INVEST 93W
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 516 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300041Z 89 GHZ
METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ONLY INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 19.2N
133.9E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.2N 133.0E, APPROXIMATELY 516 NM
SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS SCATTERED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST OF A
FULLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 300041Z 89 GHZ
METOP-A MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A DEFINED LLCC WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING
AROUND THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES AN
ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MODERATE (15-25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. NUMERICAL MODELS ONLY INDICATE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
0 likes
REMINDER: My opinions that I, or any other NON Pro-Met in this forum, are unofficial. Please do not take my opinions as an official forecast and warning. I am NOT a meteorologist. Following my forecasts blindly may lead to false alarm, danger and risk if official forecasts from agencies are ignored.
-
- WestPACMet
- Posts: 1616
- Joined: Fri Sep 17, 2010 2:26 am
- Location: Tokyo, Japan
- Contact:
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests