#5 Postby euro6208 » Wed Aug 28, 2013 8:25 pm
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 17.0N
113.1E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.3E, APPROXIMATELY 188 NM SOUTH
OF HONG KONG. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
BROAD POORLY-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE WEST. A 281202Z SSMIS
MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEALS A BROAD, YET DEFINED, CIRCULATION
SPANNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. THE
SSMIS IMAGE ALSO REVEALS A LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION
STICKING WITH THE CIRCULATION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES
THE SYSTEM IS IN AN AREA WITH A STEEP VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
GRADIENT AND IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KNOT)
VWS WITH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT EASTERLY FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. DUE TO THE LACK OF PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION AND POORLY DEFINED LLCC, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
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NWS for the Western Pacifichttps://www.weather.gov/gum/