How many named systems will form in September?

#1 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:12 pm

Oh folks,here is the September poll that will close on August 31 at 3:12 PM EDT. I voted for six.

Gustywind · #2 Postby **Gustywind** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:15 pm

I voted for 8.

because August is the 8th month of the year :lol:

#3 Postby **cycloneye** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:18 pm

Gustywind wrote:I voted for 8. because August is the 8th month of the year

This is the September poll.

CYCLONE MIKE · #4 Postby **CYCLONE MIKE** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:20 pm

Well since I first voted for four then decided to drop to three last poll, think I will stay at three for September. I'm in I'll believe when I see it mode now. Conditions haven't changed much, models keep pushing development back, and just tired of listening to just wait two more weeks

ninel conde · #5 Postby **ninel conde** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:23 pm

2/1/0. right now i see nothing to indicate otherwise.

#6 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:25 pm

I'm going for five, the season has to start in September, there can't be another month with only two or three weak TS's.

Hammy · #7 Postby **Hammy** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:39 pm

going with two because, at this point, anything beyond that is just a shot in the dark.

Florida1118 · #8 Postby **Florida1118** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:44 pm

Hammy wrote:going with two because, at this point, anything beyond that is just a shot in the dark.

Same thoughts, except I went with 3.

#9 Postby **CrazyC83** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 2:45 pm

All in with a record-breaking 9. That would include 6 hurricanes and 2 majors.

northtxboy · #10 Postby **northtxboy** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:23 pm

I voted 10+ named storm. 7 hurricanes 4 of them majors

TheStormExpert · #11 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:29 pm

Not saying things won't and can't pick up but after the very very boring and pathetic August I'm not risking it! :lol:

Chose 3 but leaning towards maybe 4, not even going to guess about hurricanes. :roll:

#12 Postby **JtSmarts** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:30 pm

4/2/2

#13 Postby **Ntxw** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:34 pm

4/2/1, I think most of them will be Caribbean or Gulf systems.

hurricaneCW · #14 Postby **hurricaneCW** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:35 pm

I went with 5, I'm thinking 5/3/2 for September. I can't believe I said 7 for August, wow that was a complete fail, but I see more people are far more conservative for September than they were for August when most called for 5-6 storms.

While I understand why people are conservative, do note that September is the peak month for storms, the MJO will be here for the peak of the season, vertical wind shear has been below average, and with the MJO, the amount of dry air will continue to gradually fade and storms will form. There's a lot of heat energy that has to get distributed from the tropics to the mid-latitudes so we're bound to see several storms, a few strong ones too.

Without an El Nino, it's hard not to see this season blowing up at some point. If things do bust, then there will be plenty of things to do research on as almost every agency has called for an active season.

TheStormExpert · #15 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:45 pm

I just don't see the dry stable air going away fully. I predict there will still be enough around to cause a few systems to struggle. It's been an issue all season so far.

TheStormExpert · #16 Postby **TheStormExpert** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 3:57 pm

Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits posted a quick update today and he thinks things are about to quickly ramp up. He expects at least 4 storms, most likely more than that making September above normal in activity. Off topic but remember last September only had 3 storms!

#17 Postby **Extratropical94** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 4:01 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:Levi Cowan from Tropical Tidbits posted a quick update today and he thinks things are about to quickly ramp up. He expects at least 4 storms, most likely more than that making September above normal in activity. Off topic but remember last September only had 3 storms!

Not even that, we only had Michael (Sep 03) and Nadine (Sep 10) in September. Oscar formed on Oct 03 and both Kirk and Leslie formed in August, but lasted into September.

Edit:
We will see if this September brings only two storms like last year or decides to get active like in 2007.
Back then Erin (#5) dissipated on August 17, TD6 (Felix) formed in the last hours of August and at the end of September we had Melissa and eventually a season total of 15/6/2.

#18 Postby **Hybridstorm_November2001** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 4:34 pm

three

Spin · #19 Postby **Spin** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 4:45 pm

I voted for five named storms.

I'm thinking 5/4/1 for September, with Ingrid as the major hurricane.

TropicalAnalystwx13 · #20 Postby **TropicalAnalystwx13** » Sat Aug 24, 2013 5:50 pm

I think September will catch a lot of people off guard. We're at the end of August with only one weak tropical storm forming in the month. I don't think many people realize that the main issue this season has been sinking air...leading to a stable environment...as a result of a lack of an MJO pulse and strong Bermuda High though. And I think many people underestimate what the upward pulse of the MJO does to the Atlantic. The large uptick in convective activity across the East Pacific and West Atlantic should be telling. Everything else is primed...wind shear is below average, sea surface temperatures are above average, the ITCZ is much farther north than average, tropical waves emerging off Africa are more convective, etc.

Going with 8 named storms. We'll see how that turns out.