Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

[hurricaneCW]

I really think the lull might end very soon, there's much more convection firing up in both the gulf and the Western Caribbean. There's is even some convection firing further east in the MDR, nothing crazy, but it's more than we've seen.

I really think once the MJO gets going and it will be soon that things will fire up rather sharply and just because models aren't latching onto anything immediate doesn't mean we won't see activity. Models can often miss smaller developing systems and don't pick up on them until they actually develop and start to strengthen.

[TheStormExpert]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Don't the models beg to differ though? And the wave train seems less active than it was earlier in the season as of now.

[ROCK]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Don't the models beg to differ though? And the wave train seems less active than it was earlier in the season as of now.

the EURO nor the GFS have been good at ATL TC genesis this year. the latest runs of the CMC and NAVGEM would beg to differ...

[HURRICANELONNY]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Couldn't of said it better. Sick of reading all the wining on this board.

[ConvergenceZone]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Couldn't of said it better. Sick of reading all the wining on this board.

it's not so much we are whining, it's just that we are all saying, "show me the money".... forward subjective predictions of "it will get active soon" mean nothing....
If we see it, THEN we'll believe it....

[caneman]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

I beg to differ. Last map I saw showed Sea Pressures as high or above average for this time of year and it's that and to a degree SAL that is the cause to the slow season thus far. There also seems to be ULL's galore this year.

[caneman]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Couldn't of said it better. Sick of reading all the wining on this board.

I'm sure you mean whining It's not whining to point out the slow season start, no hurricanes and to debate the cause.

[WeatherEmperor]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Couldn't of said it better. Sick of reading all the wining on this board.

it's not so much we are whining, it's just that we are all saying, "show me the money".... forward subjective predictions of "it will get active soon" mean nothing....
If we see it, THEN we'll believe it....

Thank you for posting this. Agree 100% with this. In any case the 18z GFS shows some increase in activity in the long run. The key will be trends. It needs to show this in future runs and develop some consistency. Lets see what happens with the next few runs.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

I beg to differ. Last map I saw showed Sea Pressures as high or above average for this time of year and it's that and to a degree SAL that is the cause to the slow season thus far. There also seems to be ULL's galore this year.

No. Sea level pressures are below average:



Shear is average to below average in the Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean, off the East Coast, in the tropical Atlantic, and in the subtropical Atlantic.

SAL is minimal:



The main issue is stable air associated with an unusually strong Bermuda High and lack of a clear MJO signal. With the latter coming next week, we should see the Atlantic begin to light up. The 18z GFS has the right idea.

[SoupBone]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Couldn't of said it better. Sick of reading all the wining on this board.

I'm sure you mean whining It's not whining to point out the slow season start, no hurricanes and to debate the cause.

I've pointed this out several times now. People get upset with posters that even hint at a slow season. I've still yet to see anyone call this season a bust, but accusations have been made that people have. Clearly, anyone calling for a bust this early would be irrational and illogical. I do like to read the back and forth banter.

I have nothing to add because at this point, I really have no idea what to think. Is it simply a combination of multiple factors, like SAL, ULLs, etc. that have put a cap on things for now?

[ROCK]

I agree with the Tropical weather guy above....

easy to see lower pressures looking at the GFS runs...1012MB in the carib and MDR....thats low...you pop a LLC in that area it wont have to do much work to get going. SST wont be a problem.

MJO coming next week will be like lighting a dried out xmas tree....IMO...

[weatherwindow]

:uarrow: I agree with the Tropical weather guy above....

easy to see lower pressures looking at the GFS runs...1012MB in the carib and MDR....thats low...you pop a LLC in that area it wont have to do much work to get going. SST wont be a problem.

MJO coming next week will be like lighting a dried out xmas tree....IMO...

Rock..you silver tongued orator, you can always be counted on for a little levity...Grtz from KW, Rich

[caneman]

Not sure why people say the Atlantic is El Nino-like. Stable air can be present in any season, warm or cool based. The fact is, wind shear is below average across much of the Atlantic, sea level pressures are low, sea surface temperatures are warm, and we've got an active wave train relative to normal this season. If we get the MJO pulse the ECMWF is predicting, things will pop.

Assuming that is an update to date map (I don't see a time stamp). I saw a map that WXMN57 posted about a week ago that showed pressures high (maybe that has changed now) - further just a week or two ago SAL was much more prevalent - so maybe that too has changed now. It certainly doesn't look as bad now but they were most likely the cause for the slow start along with a couple of other factors. The MJO will help but it's not just the MJO as you know. It looks like some of the other things stated above should help kick start things. We'll see.

[cycloneye]

Here is a tweet by NHC forecaster Blake.



Eric Blake‏@EricBlake12
Active MJO still coming, but models too fast by at least a few days on the progression into the Altantic-- Phase 1

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 52/photo/1

[ninel conde]

Here is a tweet by NHC forecaster Blake.



Eric Blake‏@EricBlake12
Active MJO still coming, but models too fast by at least a few days on the progression into the Altantic-- Phase 1

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/ ... 52/photo/1

it keeps getting delayed.

[tolakram]

it keeps getting delayed.

I must have missed the time frame ... when was it first forecast to enter the Atlantic and how much has it been delayed by?

[thetruesms]

I'm sure you mean whining It's not whining to point out the slow season start, no hurricanes and to debate the cause.

I see virtually none of the bolded in this thread. I do see a lot of people angrily forecasting climatology and persistence, neither of which are real forecasts.

[thetruesms]

Everyone should read this blog post by Brian McNoldy at UMiami: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2013/08/23/where-the-heck-are-all-the-hurricanes/

It's a good description of why we're at where we're at today (although if you follow s2k closely, it will read as just a collection of things that you've already seen), but unfortunately it is a little bit thin on why he's expecting things to pick up. Perhaps to be expected, it's aimed at a lay audience, not a technical one.

But, where I think it really shines is a the statistical overview of seasonal hurricane activity and how this year fits into it.

[caneman]

I'm sure you mean whining It's not whining to point out the slow season start, no hurricanes and to debate the cause.

I see virtually none of the bolded in this thread. I do see a lot of people angrily forecasting climatology and persistence, neither of which are real forecasts.

Well, you haven't read my posts. I believe it we may be in or heading towards a more inactive period. Further, there are many comments on here stating why some people think there is a slow start to the season. What is your forecast for the rest of the season? Will we be below average or not and why? Thanks.