It's Late August, Will We See 13/8/3 By November 30th?

[Blown Away]

Heading into late August and we have 5 wannabe TS's in the books and CSU said we could see a total of 18/8/3...What a ride it will be if we see 13/8/3 from now until November 30th...GFS says maybe wimpy TS by September 4th...

[Bocadude85]

Im not sure we will make it to 18 named storms but I do think September and October will be fairy active with a few threats to the USA. The 12z GFS only shows one storm but the 6z had three storms. Lets see what the 18z shows.

[CrazyC83]

8 named storms in September isn't all that far fetched since it seems to be common these days...

[Yellow Evan]

Not 8 hurricanes and 3 majors. 13 looks less and less likely IMO, 15-6-2 sounds like it IMO.

[tolakram]

tolakram=16/9/3 (Final) viewtopic.php?f=25&t=114862

I think that's still doable. We'll either go higher than that with weaker storms, or lower with stronger storms, IMO.

[Trader Ron]

My forecast was 14/7/3. We might see 14 named storms, but I doubt we have 7Hurricanes.

[Hurricane_Luis]

Hurricane_Luis=20/7/4 )Final ACE:160

I doubt it, I'd Probably put it down to 9/2/1 ACE: 85

[otowntiger]

Heading into late August and we have 5 wannabe TS's in the books and CSU said we could see a total of 18/8/3...What a ride it will be if we see 13/8/3 from now until November 30th...GFS says maybe wimpy TS by September 4th...

We will not come anywhere close to those numbers in my opinion. I say we end up: 12/5/1 for the year. Of course if the one is a doozy and hits a populated area (particularly in the US) the season will be remembered for that and always be considered a huge hurricane year, (ala 1992)

[cycloneye]

Quantity will win over quality. I had 16/8/3 at preseason poll but I am going down with the numbers for the rest of season to 8/4/1 to have the season at 13/4/1 with ACE of 75.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

In that case, I'll go down to 12/5/2 = season total

[Sanibel]

What's that west of Key West?

[hurricaneCW]

I think those numbers are very possible, we could still get something before this month ends and September could easily produce a ton of storms and don't underestimate October either as that month has proven it could be very active and dangerous as well.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

We will get at least 11/7/3 by November 30 is my guess (gives 16,7,3)

I've yet to see anybody give a legit reason for why activity won't meet expectations. Many, many seasons have seen a similar amount of activity to this year during the JJA period, only to explode in September and October.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

18/9/4 for me

IMO, we'll see a 2010ish explosion next week. (I'm expecting August to end with a Katia-like Humberto. Irene might as well be one of his ancestors too.)

Come September, two cute little cat 4s (Karen and Lorenzo) will spring to life. Karen would be an Igor whilst Lorenzo will be a happy, playful and shy Category 4 with no landfall. Melissa will be an intriguing, inquisitive cat 3 that is an avid explorer. We'll see Ingrid to Olga at this point.

Then here comes October! Pablo all the way to the red crab Sebastian! Woo hoo!

November will see a shy but bouncy cat 2 Tanya.

ACE= ~155

BUT REMEMBER...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

What's that west of Key West?

Lol exactly.

[TheStormExpert]

Original Forecast: 17/10/5, I assumed Quality over Quantity was going to be the case this year.

Updated Forecast: 13/5/2, if conditions continue like this and something doesn't change real soon this forecast will probably be about right IMO. Neither Quality nor Quantity now!

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

18/9/4 for me

IMO, we'll see a 2010ish explosion next week. (I'm expecting August to end with a Katia-like Humberto. Irene might as well be one of his ancestors too.)

Come September, two cute little cat 4s (Karen and Lorenzo) will spring to life. Karen would be an Igor whilst Lorenzo will be a happy, playful and shy Category 4 with no landfall. Melissa will be an intriguing, inquisitive cat 3 that is an avid explorer. We'll see Ingrid to Olga at this point.

Then here comes October! Pablo all the way to the red crab Sebastian! Woo hoo!

November will see a shy but bouncy cat 2 Tanya.

ACE= ~155

BUT REMEMBER...
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

BUT... Referring to that berto thingy I was talking about, he'll come on the 31st but landfall in sep in my opinion. Not official though but my prediction.

[wxman57]

It's unlikely we'll see 8 hurricanes if we don't get one in August. There have been a number of years in which the first hurricane occurred after August (2002, 2001, 1988, 1984, 1967, 1941, 1937 and 1931 - to name those since 1930). For those years, 2001 leads the pack with 9 hurricanes, the first occurring on Sept. 8th. But the average for all the seasons in the modern satellite age is 6.

I'm thinking 14/6/3 for this season.

[Tireman4]

Boy I am going to bomb this season...wowzers.....

19/6/4

[Trader Ron]

The reason I went with my forecast, 14/7,3 was because I didn't believe the so-called near "perfect conditions" in the MDR would verify. But, I usually go against the consensus.

Of course, it only takes ONE to make peoples lives miserable.