Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Alyono]

You CANNOT exclude Alex when comparing the differences between 2010 and this year! I cannot believe that was just implied.

In 2010, you had a classic Gulf hurricane that formed in the deep tropics already in the season. It was a certainty that when things would poo, they would really go.

This year, yes, 3 of the 4 have formed in the MDR, which IS a sign of an active season. However, the strongest was Chantal as it passed over Martinique

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Other than Alex, we had seen a...large and disorganized Tropical Depression Two that died due to land interaction but even as a cyclone had a meager circulation...weak and disorganized Bonnie that succumbed to dry air and shear southeast of Louisiana...fast-moving Tropical Storm Colin that spent most of its time as an exposed circulation thanks to very strong trade winds, an abundance of dry air, AND moderate wind shear...and short-lived Tropical Depression Five that died thanks to its proximity to the northeast Gulf Coast and easterly shear.

It will get active eventually. Perhaps not as quickly as 2010 then -- which means not as many storms as 2010 (but who expected 19 anyways?) -- but it will. We will likely end up well above-average still. Somewhere around 16, 9, 3 is my guess.

Or could just as easily end up being like 2006 or 1997

[ninel conde]

Other than Alex, we had seen a...large and disorganized Tropical Depression Two that died due to land interaction but even as a cyclone had a meager circulation...weak and disorganized Bonnie that succumbed to dry air and shear southeast of Louisiana...fast-moving Tropical Storm Colin that spent most of its time as an exposed circulation thanks to very strong trade winds, an abundance of dry air, AND moderate wind shear...and short-lived Tropical Depression Five that died thanks to its proximity to the northeast Gulf Coast and easterly shear.

It will get active eventually. Perhaps not as quickly as 2010 then -- which means not as many storms as 2010 (but who expected 19 anyways?) -- but it will. We will likely end up well above-average still. Somewhere around 16, 9, 3 is my guess.

Or could just as easily end up being like 2006 or 1997

i brought this year up before but i like 1993 as a possibility. in 1993 there was a nonstop flood pattern in the central part of the country. this year there is a nonstop flood pattern in the east. im amazed at how wet it can be here with the rain never ending and how bone dry it is in the tropics. we may be facing a monumental disaster if a slow moving tropical system moves over the southeast.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

very little activity in the deep tropics. one oddity though if you look at the 1993 chart there was a subtropical storm that became a cat6. not likely this season, lol

[Alyono]

a cat 6? what?

[ninel conde]

a cat 6? what?

did you see the chart? lol actually it was an extra tropical cat6

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

You CANNOT exclude Alex when comparing the differences between 2010 and this year! I cannot believe that was just implied.

In 2010, you had a classic Gulf hurricane that formed in the deep tropics already in the season. It was a certainty that when things would poo, they would really go.

This year, yes, 3 of the 4 have formed in the MDR, which IS a sign of an active season. However, the strongest was Chantal as it passed over Martinique

No. You CANNOT use how the first storm performed as an indication of how the season will turn out, simply because atmospheric patterns change. The first cyclone of the busiest Atlantic hurricane season on record...2005...reached 70 mph but spent most of its life as an exposed low. Even the second and third named storms struggled to reach their intensities, the last of the three (Cindy) due to shear.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Other than Alex, we had seen a...large and disorganized Tropical Depression Two that died due to land interaction but even as a cyclone had a meager circulation...weak and disorganized Bonnie that succumbed to dry air and shear southeast of Louisiana...fast-moving Tropical Storm Colin that spent most of its time as an exposed circulation thanks to very strong trade winds, an abundance of dry air, AND moderate wind shear...and short-lived Tropical Depression Five that died thanks to its proximity to the northeast Gulf Coast and easterly shear.

It will get active eventually. Perhaps not as quickly as 2010 then -- which means not as many storms as 2010 (but who expected 19 anyways?) -- but it will. We will likely end up well above-average still. Somewhere around 16, 9, 3 is my guess.

Or could just as easily end up being like 2006 or 1997

We could, but then again, both 1997 and 2006 were El Niño years. We are very nearly in the opposite pattern.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Wow I've known of individual systems being such, but this is the first time I've ever seen an entire season that is for all intents & purposes a non-entity. It may change in the coming weeks, though at this point, I'll honestly not be shocked if it doesn't.

[ninel conde]

Wow I've known of individual systems being such, but this is the first time I've ever seen an entire season that is for all intents & purposes a non-entity. It may change in the coming weeks, though at this point, I'll honestly not be shocked if it doesn't.

im having a hard time finding a season where 3 storms in a row formed in the deep tropics and died over deep tropical waters.

[Hammy]

Wow I've known of individual systems being such, but this is the first time I've ever seen an entire season that is for all intents & purposes a non-entity. It may change in the coming weeks, though at this point, I'll honestly not be shocked if it doesn't.

im having a hard time finding a season where 3 storms in a row formed in the deep tropics and died over deep tropical waters.

in 2000 Chris, Debby, and Ernesto were all ripped apart at around 20N by an unusually persistent upper trough.

[gatorcane]

An upward pulse of the MJO is just now amplifying across the eastern Pacific. We should see activity there this week. Afterwards, it's the Atlantic's turn. If we get a pulse of the same magnitude the ECMWF (below) is indicating, this will no doubt be a September to remember.

Looks like it is not just the ECMWF that is showing this MJO pulse that could hit the Atlantic basin in September:

[tolakram]

Interesting blurb from Bastardi yesterday on the African Dust being a symptom of conditions in Africa and how those conditions are changing. He expects lower trade winds and warming SSTs in the next couple of weeks. This plus the fact that the Caribbean becomes more favorable for development in September....

Another 'just wait a week or so' type of posts, so time will tell. I can't judge the accuracy of the information provided.

[ninel conde]

Interesting blurb from Bastardi yesterday on the African Dust being a symptom of conditions in Africa and how those conditions are changing. He expects lower trade winds and warming SSTs in the next couple of weeks. This plus the fact that the Caribbean becomes more favorable for development in September....

Another 'just wait a week or so' type of posts, so time will tell. I can't judge the accuracy of the information provided.

sounds like he is talking climo.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

dont see any change yet. africa is pretty dried up.

[tolakram]

Here's the free Saturday Summary: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-17-2013

Careful with the volume, he screams at the start of all his videos.

Basically your observations are correct, but you are seeing the symptom of the current pattern, not the cause. As the pattern changes the symptoms will change, or so is the claim.

I'm tempted to put the disclaimer on this, but he's a professional meteorologist. If a pro met here would like to chime in it would be helpful.

[otowntiger]

Interesting blurb from Bastardi yesterday on the African Dust being a symptom of conditions in Africa and how those conditions are changing. He expects lower trade winds and warming SSTs in the next couple of weeks. This plus the fact that the Caribbean becomes more favorable for development in September....

Another 'just wait a week or so' type of posts, so time will tell. I can't judge the accuracy of the information provided.

sounds like he is talking climo.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/s ... vmid&time=

dont see any change yet. africa is pretty dried up.

Maybe its just me but this season seems really different. By that I mean we've had all kinds of experts tell us it will be a busier than average season but it seems the severely dry air and screaming wind shear has completely put a cap on any development. I know these factors are not so unusual especially earlier in the season but we are now in the climatological 'heart' of the season and any storm prospects seem to be very feeble at best. It seems very odd to me. I can't remember an August like this in the tropics. Any one else feel the same way? I"m not complaining certainly because I don't want any storms lurking around when we are looking at selling our house and buying a new one - that would play havoc with my insurance.

[tolakram]

Maybe its just me but this season seems really different. By that I mean we've had all kinds of experts tell us it will be a busier than average season but it seems the severely dry air and screaming wind shear has completely put a cap on any development. I know these factors are not so unusual especially earlier in the season but we are now in the climatological 'heart' of the season and any storm prospects seem to be very feeble at best. It seems very odd to me. I can't remember an August like this in the tropics. Any one else feel the same way? I"m not complaining certainly because I don't want any storms lurking around when we are looking at selling our house and buying a new one - that would play havoc with my insurance.

I don't have clear memories of very many seasons other than 2005. I live inland of course, so that's probably the main reason. I've looked back at the seasonal records and it doesn't seem all that abnormal, but it does seem a bit abnormal for the recent active period. I think the neat thing about the tropics is that we've really experienced so few seasons in the grand scale of things that there are still a lot of unknowns.

[otowntiger]

Maybe its just me but this season seems really different. By that I mean we've had all kinds of experts tell us it will be a busier than average season but it seems the severely dry air and screaming wind shear has completely put a cap on any development. I know these factors are not so unusual especially earlier in the season but we are now in the climatological 'heart' of the season and any storm prospects seem to be very feeble at best. It seems very odd to me. I can't remember an August like this in the tropics. Any one else feel the same way? I"m not complaining certainly because I don't want any storms lurking around when we are looking at selling our house and buying a new one - that would play havoc with my insurance.

I don't have clear memories of very many seasons other than 2005. I live inland of course, so that's probably the main reason. I've looked back at the seasonal records and it doesn't seem all that abnormal, but it does seem a bit abnormal for the recent active period. I think the neat thing about the tropics is that we've really experienced so few seasons in the grand scale of things that there are still a lot of unknowns.

very true! It seems the more we know the more we realize we don't know. This season just may teach us a lot about what we don't know and thought we did! I do love the unpredictability of Mother Nature. As soon as we all think the seasons over, boom! Something could pop up when we least expect it.

[tolakram]

So,

is the active CPAC a sign of future activity in the EPAC and then the Atlantic?

Is 2002 a good analog for this? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2002_Atlantic_hurricane_season

2002 ended early due to El Nino, if this year does not end early then do we still have a shot at a fairly active season?

Here's a 2 day water vapor movie from CIMSS: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/europe/movies/m7wvbbm/m7wvbbmjava.html

You can see the moisture over Africa increasing with time. Question is, will this finally moisten up the Atlantic?

[ninel conde]

Here's the free Saturday Summary: http://www.weatherbell.com/saturday-summary-august-17-2013

Careful with the volume, he screams at the start of all his videos.

Basically your observations are correct, but you are seeing the symptom of the current pattern, not the cause. As the pattern changes the symptoms will change, or so is the claim.

I'm tempted to put the disclaimer on this, but he's a professional meteorologist. If a pro met here would like to chime in it would be helpful.

like alot of forecasters i think mr bastardi is now finding ways to justify his pre season forecast. maybe the pattern will change but i think everything is interconnected and one thing that isnt changing is the southeast flood pattern.

[Hyperstorm]

I can't believe the amount of people that are declaring this entire season a non-entity.

Did you know that this is JUST the beginning of the ramp-up? Did you know that September is the busiest month? Did you know that there have been plenty of seasons where August was average to below average and September ended up being a record-breaker?

Remember that we do NOT have an El Niño this year. This factor is very much the MAIN factor that precludes development in seasons. There's been LOTS of neutral years that didn't really get going until September. One strong storm forming early in the season does not guarantee a strong season, the same way that lots of weak systems early on DO NOT indicate the season will be weak.

The Atlantic tropics are known to do a 180 degree turn in 2-3 days time. I've seen this plenty of times. Even if we don't see an above-average August, I will fear for September. Mark my words.