Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[WeatherEmperor]

To be honest, I think we've all forgotten what an average season is in the Atlantic. Its 10 to 12 storms with two to four finding good enough conditions to become majors, with that often being in the open Atlantic.

I am happy that you mention this. The real issue here isnt that an average season produces 10 to 12 storms. The issue is all the above average activity that was forecast and above average percent chances for big portions of the US coastline being affected by a tropical cyclone. When people dont see all this forecasted above normal this and that...the frustration begins. This is one of the reasons why I am against these seasonal forecasts but oh well. Bottom line is, the big weather agencies forecasted s big and potentially dangerous season...and many are like "well....where the heck is all this activity you forecasted?"

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[RL3AO]

I still suspect that we are in for an intense flurry of storms in the next four to five weeks.

[boca]

Another thing is that maybe we could be heading out of the hyperactive seasons that we been having since 1995 and going back to the way it was in the 70s and 80s

[SFLcane]

The dry air and sinking motion is normal/typical for the Atlantic this time of the year...even during active cycles. Look at the climo stats (http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/#bac) and you will see that the first named storm typically isn't until 9 July, the first hurricane isn't until 10 August, and the 3rd named storm isn't until 13 August; we have had 5 named storms already as of 15 August.

The Atlantic MDR will, unfortunately, liven up later this month and September

...Patience...

[caneman]

That is exactly what I was thinking Boca. The thing is that you won't know if you are in a period of inactivity until it goes on for several years. Just because there are more storms now doesn't make it active. Many storms where never identified prior to Satellite, Radar, etc.... And some types of storms get classified now that perhaps wouldn't have been classified before there by skewing the numbers upward. Just my thinking. The overall intensity has been there for the last few years. Many of them seem struggle to come together now.

[blp]

In my opinion the end of the active mutidecadal cycle will be begin with a shift in the sea surface temperatures back to the cooling phase we saw before 1994. We are not there yet but we can look to a change in the thermohaline circulation and its affect on the AMO to start the process. The last major shift in this circulation happened in 1995 and led to higher than normal ocean temperatures. We may be in the beginning stages of another flip but until sea surface temperatures go below normal we won't know for sure. One characteristic that is showing up recently is the lack of major hurricanes which is one aspect where the thermohaline circulation plays a role in according to Dr. Gray. We will flip back again and I wonder what will happen to some on this board when we go back to seasons like the 80's and early 90's. I think we are right on schedule this year. September and October will be quite active. If we get a lack of major hurricanes again in this non El Niño year then I may start to question whether changes are starting.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thermohaline_circulation

Dr Gray's take:
http://stormcatcher.com/blog/thermohaline-circulation-and-its-relation-to-hurricanes/

AMO to THC study
http://lightning.sbs.ohio-state.edu/indices/amo_reference/Knight2005.pdf

[psyclone]

interesting discussion. I know i'm certainly bored at this point...my preseason guess of 8 canes and 4 majors assumed we'd have a couple of canes and 1 major in august. OTOH it is nice to live on the coast and be completely devoid of the stress that inevitably creeps in when a monster is lurking out there. time to enjoy another carefree beach day.

[blp]

The latest NAO forecast tells the story on why the first week of September should finally kick the Cape Verde season into high gear. We should see lower pressure in the MDR.

[TheStormExpert]

The latest NAO forecast tells the story on why the first week of September should finally kick the Cape Verde season into high gear. We should see lower pressure in the MDR.

http://imageshack.us/a/img69/83/oom5.jpg

Could be, but the NAO was just recently Negative at the beginning of August for some time and conditions were still unfavorable.

[ninel conde]

The latest NAO forecast tells the story on why the first week of September should finally kick the Cape Verde season into high gear. We should see lower pressure in the MDR.

http://imageshack.us/a/img69/83/oom5.jpg

Could be, but the NAO was just recently Negative at the beginning of August for some time and conditions were still unfavorable.

NAO was negative the entire cane season the last 2 years and the deep tropics were stable and dry.

[hurricanetrack]

I am going to start a message board just for Negative Nancy types who, no matter what people post, always have some downer comment, a reason why things won't be busy, etc. etc. It's quite entertaining and I think a separate site, just for those folks, would do very well.

I guess in this day and age of instant info and access to pretty much anything related to the tropics that you could ask for, the ole "watched pot" syndrome is alive and well.

By the way, the site name would be simply called seasoncancel.net

Stay windy my friends...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

An upward pulse of the MJO is just now amplifying across the eastern Pacific. We should see activity there this week. Afterwards, it's the Atlantic's turn. If we get a pulse of the same magnitude the ECMWF (below) is indicating, this will no doubt be a September to remember.

[blp]

An upward pulse of the MJO is just now amplifying across the eastern Pacific. We should see activity there this week. Afterwards, it's the Atlantic's turn. If we get a pulse of the same magnitude the ECMWF (below) is indicating, this will no doubt be a September to remember.

[]http://i.imgur.com/5LKP59U.gif[/img]

Yes, this should be the final spark we need. It looks like a strong signal and Euro has done a better job this year than the GFS.

[caneman]

I am going to start a message board just for Negative Nancy types who, no matter what people post, always have some downer comment, a reason why things won't be busy, etc. etc. It's quite entertaining and I think a separate site, just for those folks, would do very well.

I guess in this day and age of instant info and access to pretty much anything related to the tropics that you could ask for, the ole "watched pot" syndrome is alive and well.

By the way, the site name would be simply called seasoncancel.net

Stay windy my friends...

Hardly being a Negative Nancy type. Simply stating facts. While some people don't like facts and prefer to operate on emotions and or blind faith. It is quite obvious that the tropics have been quiet so far this year and not the same for the last 2 or 3 years. It has been hard for most systems to get going. I'm not saying it can't change but it is worthy of debate. Are we heading into a slower period?

[tolakram]

Hardly being a Negative Nancy type. Simply stating facts. While some people don't like facts and prefer to operate on emotions and or blind faith. It is quite obvious that the tropics have been quiet so far this year and not the same for the last 2 or 3 years. It has been hard for most systems to get going. I'm not saying it can't change but it is worthy of debate. Are we heading into a slower period?

Is that true though?

If we get to the end of the season and look back at a slow start and a really busy finish will any of this matter? It's August 18th, and so far this year we have had 5 storms. One might counter that emotions are driving the "slow season" comments rather than facts.

Regardless, let's focus the discussion on seasonal opinions and NOT opinions about why people do things.

[WPBWeather]

I am going to start a message board just for Negative Nancy types who, no matter what people post, always have some downer comment, a reason why things won't be busy, etc. etc. It's quite entertaining and I think a separate site, just for those folks, would do very well.

I guess in this day and age of instant info and access to pretty much anything related to the tropics that you could ask for, the ole "watched pot" syndrome is alive and well.

By the way, the site name would be simply called seasoncancel.net

Stay windy my friends...

Hardly being a Negative Nancy type. Simply stating facts. While some people don't like facts and prefer to operate on emotions and or blind faith. It is quite obvious that the tropics have been quiet so far this year and not the same for the last 2 or 3 years. It has been hard for most systems to get going. I'm not saying it can't change but it is worthy of debate. Are we heading into a slower period?

The major prognosticators have said pretty consistently we are heading into increased activity in the coming few years, given that NO ONE can know for sure until it does (or does not) arrive.

[caneman]

Hardly being a Negative Nancy type. Simply stating facts. While some people don't like facts and prefer to operate on emotions and or blind faith. It is quite obvious that the tropics have been quiet so far this year and not the same for the last 2 or 3 years. It has been hard for most systems to get going. I'm not saying it can't change but it is worthy of debate. Are we heading into a slower period?

Is that true though?

If we get to the end of the season and look back at a slow start and a really busy finish will any of this matter? It's August 18th, and so far this year we have had 5 storms. One might counter that emotions are driving the "slow season" comments rather than facts.

Regardless, let's focus the discussion on seasonal opinions and NOT opinions about why people do things.

I'm assuming you are referring to negative Nancy type comments as well. Yes, it still could get busy. It's not so much the #'s, there just hasn't been the quality of storms. For the last 2 or 3 years, it seems the stars have to align just right to get a decent storm. Now, it could be that it always been this way and we got spoiled with many years of beautiful Cat. 2 or above storms.

[caneman]

I am going to start a message board just for Negative Nancy types who, no matter what people post, always have some downer comment, a reason why things won't be busy, etc. etc. It's quite entertaining and I think a separate site, just for those folks, would do very well.

I guess in this day and age of instant info and access to pretty much anything related to the tropics that you could ask for, the ole "watched pot" syndrome is alive and well.

By the way, the site name would be simply called seasoncancel.net

Stay windy my friends...

Hardly being a Negative Nancy type. Simply stating facts. While some people don't like facts and prefer to operate on emotions and or blind faith. It is quite obvious that the tropics have been quiet so far this year and not the same for the last 2 or 3 years. It has been hard for most systems to get going. I'm not saying it can't change but it is worthy of debate. Are we heading into a slower period?

The major prognosticators have said pretty consistently we are heading into increased activity in the coming few years, given that NO ONE can know for sure until it does (or does not) arrive.

I agree. I don't think we will know until several years in if we are heading into a slower period, i.e less intensity, less landfall, etc.. but one does wonder if we are a couple of 3 years into this new period.

[Ntxw]

5/0/0 is where the Atlantic basin stands and ACE is 7.775 or 48% of normal. Those numbers says yes storms have formed but no they have not been much more than weak short lived storms than what is typically seen for an average season. Luckily this can change very quickly with a couple of decent Hurricanes and get back to normal or a major. ACE averages are starting to pick up modestly in the Atlantic as we enter late August and September so to catch up we will need a very active period. And to be fair this is simply not just an Atlantic problem this year it is globally. Even the WPAC is only half of where they should be.

I want to refer to a statement/question last month about the longer we go without a good El Nino the drier the overall atmosphere will be until one presents itself and adds moisture budget to the tropics long term. Activity in the Atlantic's busy period (post 1995) came when the PDO and AMO couplet both were positive. 2004/2005 were the apex of this match and then the PDO flipped around 2006/2007 and we saw the downturn as more Ninas (stronger ones, and remember Ninas take away moisture availability from the Pacific which is a largest body of water on earth into the atmosphere) started to outnumber ninos. 2010 was probably the single best year in that era which was immediately after a moderate Nino (<- the only Nino post 2007).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2010 at this time -



Other than Alex, we had seen a...large and disorganized Tropical Depression Two that died due to land interaction but even as a cyclone had a meager circulation...weak and disorganized Bonnie that succumbed to dry air and shear southeast of Louisiana...fast-moving Tropical Storm Colin that spent most of its time as an exposed circulation thanks to very strong trade winds, an abundance of dry air, AND moderate wind shear...and short-lived Tropical Depression Five that died thanks to its proximity to the northeast Gulf Coast and easterly shear.

It will get active eventually. Perhaps not as quickly as 2010 then -- which means not as many storms as 2010 (but who expected 19 anyways?) -- but it will. We will likely end up well above-average still. Somewhere around 16, 9, 3 is my guess.