Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[Ntxw]

I don't pick either. I like going by what data has . SST's are plenty warm and shear isn't that bad nor is sal. And now climo is good, everything says it should go and has been saying it, but for some reason it's been so so and mainly weak struggling systems. Until a system defies it that's all we have to go by, I'm not much of a numbers person.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is showing plenty of activity ramping up as we head into the last two weeks of August. Things should really start cranking soon.

Probably multiple systems we are tracking at the same time.

[tolakram]

Just for a reality check.

[hurricaneCW]

The GFS is showing plenty of activity ramping up as we head into the last two weeks of August. Things should really start cranking soon.

Probably multiple systems we are tracking at the same time.

We could have multiple systems but if they are of Dorian or Erin quality then its not really a big deal, let's see if we can get some quality type systems instead of low to mid grade tropical storms.

[gatorcane]

The GFS is showing plenty of activity ramping up as we head into the last two weeks of August. Things should really start cranking soon.

Probably multiple systems we are tracking at the same time.

We could have multiple systems but if they are of Dorian or Erin quality then its not really a big deal, let's see if we can get some quality type systems instead of low to mid grade tropical storms.

The GFS is hinting at much stronger systems in the Atlantic than what we have been seeing.

[Hurricaneman]

The GFS is showing plenty of activity ramping up as we head into the last two weeks of August. Things should really start cranking soon.

Probably multiple systems we are tracking at the same time.

We could have multiple systems but if they are of Dorian or Erin quality then its not really a big deal, let's see if we can get some quality type systems instead of low to mid grade tropical storms.

The GFS is hinting at much stronger systems in the Atlantic than what we have been seeing.

The ramp up period IMO is just beginning and as the CCKW and MJO move into the atlantic the last week of the month things will probably pick up substantially and don't be surprised if we get a landfall or 2 the next 2 months but looking at things as a whole I do think the streak of consecutive years without a major hurricane landfall will continue

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[caneman]

Interesting read from the Farmer's Almanac on why systems have failed to develop or maintain:

http://www.almanac.com/blog/weather-blo ... est-friend

[HURRICANELONNY]

True the SAL has been heavy. But it is normal in July and parts of August. If it wasn't then July would be busier and the Bell curve would be shifted left. Were coming up the curve slowly and guess what. It's going to ramp up. The last piece of the puzzle is coming. Which is the Phase of MJO that is usually more moist. So watch what you ask for. You might just get it and believe me clean up ain't no fun.

[Hammy]

I wasn't sure where to put this but an interesting coincidence (meaningless as it may be) that today in northern Georgia it failed to hit 70 for the first time on an August day since 8/16/64 (both this month and 1964 were quite a bit below normal), and 1964's hurricane season also had a late start to it.

[ninel conde]

i still dont think the pattern has changed. we have a chance for another named storm off africa in a few days and i think its likely to also die over deep tropical waters. i give kodos to Alyono for telling us how these waves dont clear out the dry air for the next one.

[sunnyday]

I don't want any hurricane/storm to harm anyone's life/property, but I must admit how boring this season has been so far. Even if numerous storms form, if they fizzle/dissipate, the season becomes dull for hurricane watchers. There seem to be too many factors going against development so far, and who is to say that conditions may not stay as bad as they are now? Unless things change, won't the season continue as it as been thus far?

[Ntxw]

I don't want any hurricane/storm to harm anyone's life/property, but I must admit how boring this season has been so far. Even if numerous storms form, if they fizzle/dissipate, the season becomes dull for hurricane watchers. There seem to be too many factors going against development so far, and who is to say that conditions may not stay as bad as they are now? Unless things change, won't the season continue as it as been thus far?

The pattern is changing. The big high dominating the central Atlantic will move/split and what not thanks to normal intra-seasonal changes. We'll get storms to form and more than likely some Hurricanes. The question is will these things be slow developing slops or something worth watching like a textbook picturesque fish storm (I don't want anything to form too far west for obvious reasons ). We keep hearing the conditions are going to be favorable a couple of weeks down the road, "It's only July" then it's "only early August." First I want to see something substantial in the atmosphere change, either better instability or less sinking air before I'll take any uptick ideas seriously the next 1-2 weeks.

MJO is still very much incoherent as shown in the map below. Convection is scattered throughout the globe without a significant signal. Models continue to hint at maybe coming alive and out of the circle of quiet. Different models send it to different places so it's hard to believe any signal solution until there is further evidence to back it up. I think based on what we are seeing in the CPAC (storms) the EPAC will probably be where it's headed first (P7/8) then to 1/2 IF the forecasts are believable.

[sunnyday]

Thank you for explaining.

[Alyono]

Just throwing this out for discussion... not saying it is happening or has happened.

Is it possible that we are out of the active phase and are once again in the quiet phase for the Atlantic? Remember, the active phase came suddenly... have we reverted back just as suddenly?

[gatorcane]

Alyono, I thought about that as well. I guess it's possible. Looking out at the wide image Atlantic sat view today, it is awfully quiet out there for going into the latter part of August. The GFS has been hinting at it ramping up soon though, so we will see:

[ninel conde]

Just throwing this out for discussion... not saying it is happening or has happened.

Is it possible that we are out of the active phase and are once again in the quiet phase for the Atlantic? Remember, the active phase came suddenly... have we reverted back just as suddenly?

doubtful. there were more waves and moisture in the dead times than now. when we get to the next dead time i expect it will hit with a strong el nino. also, whats happening this seasin isnt sudden. deep tropics have been dry since 2009 and super bone dry since 2011. IMO, the sole reason the tropics are dead is there simply is no moisture. none. finally, if this was a sudden onslaught of the dead times i would expect other areas to be above normal. moisture is lacking everywhere and ACE is down everywhere. i think we have 2 or 3 more seasons to go, though they may well be dried up as well.

[ninel conde]

Alyono, I thought about that as well. I guess it's possible. Looking out at the wide image Atlantic sat view today, it is awfully quiet out there for going into the latter part of August. The GFS has been hinting at it ramping up soon though, so we will see:

[northjaxpro]

That satellite image is very telling. It really highlights just how very stable the environment is out there across the majority of the Atlantic basin right now. If this continues, it will become a lackluster season tracking tropical cyclones for 2013.

We will see if things finally change out there.

[RL3AO]

To be honest, I think we've all forgotten what an average season is in the Atlantic. Its 10 to 12 storms with two to four finding good enough conditions to become majors, with that often being in the open Atlantic.

[ninel conde]

to my point about none of the basins being active. one big reason the east pac isnt producing any notable canes is the atlantic waves cant even make it to the pacific since they are so moisture starved. even in dead atlantic seasons you will often see vigorous waves cross over into the pacific and develop. there are no vigorous waves this year.