ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

I might be looking at sat. loops too much today, but is anyone else seeing what looks like an Anti-cyclone getting established aloft over this once ULL?

Well not quite yet, but I do see good upper outflow on the northern, eastern and southeastern sides. That could help it to eventually get a full upper anti-cyclone to develop over it.

That's what I'm seeing, Thanks for the input!

[nautical wheeler]

How many times have we seen a naked swirl form a convective MLC to its NE quadrant the last few years? It seems like one of two things happens: Either the LLC gets "pulled up" under the convective MLC or the system never quite gets its act together. If the MLC doesn't have enough convective energy it can never overcome the displaced "naked" LLC to form its own or merge back together.



I'm so intrigued by the way the ULL and this system have interacted. I, as a novice, have never seen a ULL, which was completely dissociated with the system, basically merge with and become the dominant factor in the system. I'm not even sure if that's a technically accurate description of what happened but I find it interesting nonetheless.

[HurriGuy]

All this massive convection over the Yucatan....does it look to drop south like the convection yesterday or is this convection actually pulling north to the circulation?

[Dean4Storms]

That ULL is beginning to drift northward, interesting day tomorrow.

[ozonepete]

All this massive convection over the Yucatan....does it look to drop south like the convection yesterday or is this convection actually pulling north to the circulation?

That is a massive blowup of afternoon thunderstorms over the Yucatan caused by sea breezes coming together from the west north and east. It happens almost daily there in the summer. It is also being exacerbated by the flow from this disturbance. So it's different in origin from what we saw last night. This convection is basically afternoon sea breeze storm convection so it will die out after sundown, and should not have much of an effect either way on the disturbance except to maybe rob a little energy from it over the next couple of hours or so. Then we will see if more true tropical thunderstorms build and concentrate around the new center north of the Yucatan during DMAX.

[HurriGuy]

All this massive convection over the Yucatan....does it look to drop south like the convection yesterday or is this convection actually pulling north to the circulation?

That is a massive blowup of afternoon thunderstorms over the Yucatan caused by sea breezes coming together from the west north and east. It happens almost daily there in the summer. It is also being exacerbated by the flow from this disturbance. So it's different in origin from what we saw last night. This convection is basically afternoon sea breeze storm convection so it will die out after sundown, and should not have much of an effect either way on the disturbance except to maybe rob a little energy from it over the next couple of hours or so. Then we will see if more true tropical thunderstorms build and concentrate around the new center north of the Yucatan during DMAX.

Thanks for explaining!

[HurriGuy]

What is the latest 5 day rainfall totals for GFS? Curious to see if it pushed more into LA. I know our rain chances have been going up.

[Janie2006]

Squally wx moving in off the Gulf this evening. This particular squall has dropped a couple of inches of rain in the last hour or so. It may be a long weekend.

[Annie Oakley]

Percentage lowered for the next 48 hours............that means what it says.

Am appreciating the pro-mets on here tonight!

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO

[Dean4Storms]

Bath water to the north of this developing circulation lifting northward, buoy showing from over 85F to 87F SST's at times.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

[ozonepete]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO

Wow, that is way off.

[Nikki]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO

Wow, that is way off.

Where do you put it ozonepete?

[ROCK]

yep Kat a lot more work for this to do. I have seen ULLs screw up a system internally and that is what is happening here. It has basically taken over the circulation and moisture associated with 92L even though technically its still 92L....almost doesnt look tropical but technically it is...

guidance at 18Z

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/hurricanes/real ... _early.png

[ROCK]

Bath water to the north of this developing circulation lifting northward, buoy showing from over 85F to 87F SST's at times.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42001

if it had a LLC it might make a difference....

[wxsouth]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO

Wow, that is way off.

How is that 'way off'? It's right where the low-level center is. I've seen no evidence of any surface circulation farther north. That swirl in the satellite is mid/upper level. None of the surface data I've seen suggests a new center is forming.

[Annie Oakley]

ha ha....Brooklyn vs. wxsouth.............

(all in good fun folks)

[ozonepete]

00z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081700, , BEST, 0, 210N, 917W, 25, 1009, LO

Wow, that is way off.

How is that 'way off'? It's right where the low-level center is. I've seen no evidence of any surface circulation farther north. That swirl in the satellite is mid/upper level. None of the surface data I've seen suggests a new center is forming.

Watch the rgb satellite loop. Wxman57, Alyono and I have all stated in recent posts that we can see a new LLC developing around 22.0N, 90.5W. We already gave our reasons why and I backed up mine with annotated satellite images. It just so happens that the new LLC is forming under that MLC but we are not confusing the two by any means - we certainly know the difference. The rgb satellite will show you both MLC and LLC to a large degree as long as the MLC doesn't obscure the LLC below. You may very well be seeing something different, but we all have many years a lot of experience in watching these and that's what we see.

[ozonepete]

Where do you put it ozonepete?

Look right above.

[Dean4Storms]

Yep, the RGB shows it pretty distinctly.