ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tolakram]

Not a lot of shear at the moment.

[vbhoutex]

A look through several different Sat loops tells me that 92L is well on its way. Definitely just starting to show convection to the N and NW. Once that gets going it should be game on. Convection to the NE is flattening out as it tries to progress N. Dry air is all but gone and it appears the ULL is weakening still. My take is that this will be a N Mexico or far S TX event in whatever form it takes. Caveat is if the trough doesn't wash out and/or strengthens, then the N GOM is the better scenario. Really a tough call all around.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[perk]

A look through several different Sat loops tells me that 92L is well on its way. Definitely just starting to show convection to the N and NW. Once that gets going it should be game on. Convection to the NE is flattening out as it tries to progress N. Dry air is all but gone and it appears the ULL is weakening still. My take is that this will be a N Mexico or far S TX event in whatever form it takes. Caveat is if the trough doesn't wash out and/or strengthens, then the N GOM is the better scenario. Really a tough call all around.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

vb i just hope we can get some rain out of this system.

[ROCK]

A look through several different Sat loops tells me that 92L is well on its way. Definitely just starting to show convection to the N and NW. Once that gets going it should be game on. Convection to the NE is flattening out as it tries to progress N. Dry air is all but gone and it appears the ULL is weakening still. My take is that this will be a N Mexico or far S TX event in whatever form it takes. Caveat is if the trough doesn't wash out and/or strengthens, then the N GOM is the better scenario. Really a tough call all around.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

agree...timing will be key as that trof will lift out and if this is still far enough south it might move NW / NNW before the ridge builds back in from the west / east....it might slip up behind it as I mentioned back in the talkin tropics section oh about 2 weeks ago... as far as what it will be will be decided by that shear moving into the GOM...

['CaneFreak]

Sure wish we had some decent surface observations to see what the winds are doing in that band well to the northeast of the center over the GOM. No recent quickscat images either.

[Dean4Storms]

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

[Stormcenter]

I see that too.

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

[Alyono]

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

It's NOT coming to MS/AL. Only moisture along with squalls

['CaneFreak]

Very simply put the GFS is tracking the wrong area.

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

[tailgater]

I'm on my phone Dean but I don't see what you're talking about the on the northwest portion of the yucatán peninsula the low-level clouds or streaming north northwest

[Dean4Storms]

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

It's NOT coming to MS/AL. Only moisture along with squalls

NOT talking about the LOW west of the Yucatan, the GFS strings out the wave toward the NNE and sends a VORT from the central Gulf NNE.

12z GFS @24hrs...Vort central Gulf moving north.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png

36hrs.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

[Javlin]

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

I see it Dean but I wonder if that is part of the ULL disenergrating.The vort to the SW still looks dominate.

[Stormcenter]

The discussion below from the New Orleans NWS gives their take of what may be happening with 92L in the future.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
FRI AUG 16 2013

444 AM CDT FRI AUG 16 2013/

SHORT TERM...
INTERESTING SITUATION APPEARS TO BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF
THAT WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME IMPACTS UPON THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY
EVENING. FOR TODAY...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
MAINTAIN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TODAY ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AROUND 90. OVERNIGHT LOWS TO
SETTLE IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S. NOW FOR SATURDAY...WE HAVE
DISCOUNTED THE GFS SOLUTION AS A FULLY BELIEVABLE SCENARIO...BUT
IT MAY BE INDICATING OTHER DYNAMICS IN PLAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE
WILL BE BASED ON THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE IN THE LOWER GULF
EMERGING OFF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA MOVING WESTWARD TOWARDS UPPER
MEXICO. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT HAS BEEN MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
PENINSULA AND BEGINNING TO STACK OVER WHATEVER SURFACE CONVERGENCE
THAT MAY BE IN PLACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE DEFINED
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MAY BECOME
CLASSIFIED SOMETIME IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER
JET STRUCTURE RESPONDING TO DIGGING TROUGH AND VORTICITY BOUNCE
FROM GULF SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A WAKE DEPRESSION LOW
PRESSURE RESPONSE THAT MOVES NORTH IN THE MEAN UPPER FLOW. THIS
APPEARS TO BE WHAT THE GFS IS INDICATING...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT
THE ECMWF AND NAM. FROM A SENSIBLE WEATHER STANDPOINT...THIS
SHOULD BE A HIGHLY TRANSITORY FEATURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTH AROUND
30-40 KTS TO ACTIVATE CONVECTION IN THE FRONTOLYTIC ZONE NEAR THE
GULF COAST. A CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK PROCESS THAT ENHANCES WINDS...SEAS
AND TIDE LEVELS FOR A SHORT PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL CAN
ALSO BE PRONOUNCED...AS INDICATED BY HPC QPF GUIDANCE...WITH
HEAVIER AMOUNTS OFF THE COAST. AT THIS TIME...WILL INDICATE
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TIDES ALONG THE MS COAST IN THE 1-2 FT
RANGE...RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS 1-3 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS AGAIN OVER THE IMMEDIATE MS COAST AREA. MARINE WIND GUSTS
MAY LIKELY EXCEED GALE FORCE BRIEFLY BUT WILL BE DUE TO CONVECTION
AND SHOULD BE HANDLED WITH SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS WHEN THE TIME
WARRANTS.

[tailgater]

I'm on my phone Dean but I don't see what you're talking about the on the northwest portion of the yucatán peninsula the low-level clouds or streaming north northwest

[Alyono]

That vort max heading to the Gulf Coast is NOT 92L

92L is in the SW Gulf

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI AUG 16 2013

CORRECTED TO CHANGE STATUS OF ERIN TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ERIN...LOCATED WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO ABOUT 120 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF CAMPECHE MEXICO. SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS INCREASED A LITTLE OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS...BUT IS STILL LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF THE
LOW CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS COULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT IF THE LOW MOVES TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST
OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE SYSTEM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE NORTHWARD TRACK...HOWEVER...IT
WOULD MOVE INTO A LESS CONDUCIVE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

[ROCK]

the NO DISCO above pretty much explains it...some squalls along the coast and some heavy rain.....

[Dean4Storms]

I'll say it again, there is a lower level circulation also up near 22.5N 89.5W moving NNW. On high resolution imagery you can see it and also note the lack of low level clouds flowing into the NE quad of the naked Low. There is another circulation and maybe this is the Vort the GFS is latching onto sending it northward toward the AL/MS border area.

I see it Dean but I wonder if that is part of the ULL disenergrating.The vort to the SW still looks dominate.

Don't think so, was watching it before all the convection this morning just as it left the north Yucatan coast. It could be an MLC, but why anyone would doubt there could be competing lower level swirls or lows with this strung out mess beats me.

That post above from New Orleans is prolly just what I'm seeing there, something is swirling below that ULL I know that much it was there closer to the north coast of the Yucatan around 3am and the ULL was still far to the north.

['CaneFreak]

Just to clarify - the area mentioned here is NOT associated with the tropical development further south and has NO chance of tropical development whatsoever.

NOT talking about the LOW west of the Yucatan, the GFS strings out the wave toward the NNE and sends a VORT from the central Gulf NNE.

12z GFS @24hrs...Vort central Gulf moving north.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... watl_9.png

36hrs.....

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

[Dean4Storms]

That vort max heading to the Gulf Coast is NOT 92L

92L is in the SW Gulf

Agree, never said it was.