ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Alyono]

the vort max to the northern Gulf is not exactly the invest. It is more associated with the front.

[Dean4Storms]

Ok sounds like JB obviously is not seeing the TX scenario here. He is calling for a N.Central GOM event. I personally will believe it when I see
it in reference to any of the predictions being made concerning 92L. It's not an easy call. IMO

Joe B's tweet from about 20 minutes ago.

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi

Gulf system modeled after July 4th ALAFla event.further west. Likely to strong winds, heavy rains on weekend for n cent gulf named or not

Check the 12Z NCEP Ensembles.....Most are North Central Gulf. Not out of the question at all.

[Javlin]

12z GFS still with at least an 850mb Vort headed for AL/MS border.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... atl_13.png

Yeah, 12Z GFS has not a drop of rain for TX from it. Still tremendous uncertainty in its future track. I am fairly sure it will move ashore somewhere between Veracruz and Key West.

I got $20 you are right WX57

[Dean4Storms]

the vort max to the northern Gulf is not exactly the invest. It is more associated with the front.

I don't believe so, check the 12z NCEP Ensembles, most of them come straight up toward the upper Gulf Coast from being initialized at our Low off the NW Yucatan and that Vort from the GFS I see coming from the central Gulf with Weatherbell's graphics.

[Sanibel]

Once it realizes it's over water it should put some convection clothes back on.

[Steve]

This probably throws Louisiana in the mix for rainfall total too?

Most likely. If you run the GFS (and NCEP doesn't have the full 12z yet, only the 6z), you can see various pulses of moisture forming waves along the trough and pulsing up every day or so increasingly further west. Fox 8 last night showed a surface low along the front/trough gradually backing westward across the coast (which is atypical unless the trough backs up and the easterlies push in via a building ridge SW Atlantic. The first pulse (which shows up nicely if you run the 850 Vorticity (850 Vort_Ht) is farther east, and then the next few are southeast, south central LA and then Upper Texas Coast. These are probably ejected pieces of energy getting drawn up toward the trough. QPF has the 7 day bullseye just south of Pensacola Bay extending over to Plaquemines Parish Louisiana. You can see the 12z totals here:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p168i.gif

[Javlin]

Looking at IF makes one wonder in 4-6 hrs if the NNE convection does make it's way to S

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-ir4.html

[Dean4Storms]

Well maybe half the Ensembles....

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922013_ens.png

[Portastorm]

Hey gang, when you're linking to another site please use the proper URL codes so that when we click on that link another window opens.

Thanks.

['CaneFreak]

Can't remember the exact convection proximity requirements for upgrading to a TD or a TS but I don't think it will be long.

[wxman57]

Well maybe half the Ensembles....

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922013_ens.png

That's still 6Z ensembles. 12z won't be out for a few hours.

[Bailey1777]

wxman57 you buying into those models...i dont....92l would be being drawn at least slightly northward by now if it was going for the northern solution...right?

[HurriGuy]

Infared is showing convection starting to build on north side. Here we go.

[ROCK]

ssts, wont be a problem

http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html#ATL

[wxman57]

wxman57 you buying into those models...i dont....92l would be being drawn at least slightly northward by now if it was going for the northern solution...right?

One of the models may be correct. Not sure which one yet.

[Portastorm]

wxman57 you buying into those models...i dont....92l would be being drawn at least slightly northward by now if it was going for the northern solution...right?

One of the models may be correct. Not sure which one yet.

This is classic wxman57. Love it!

Key West to Tampico is the zone, right?!

[Bailey1777]

i think you may be correct....in 2 to 5 days...

[brunota2003]

Who has the dart board of the GOM? Need to throw a few darts at it and see where 92 is going......

[Tireman4]

wxman57 you buying into those models...i dont....92l would be being drawn at least slightly northward by now if it was going for the northern solution...right?

One of the models may be correct. Not sure which one yet.

Oh my goodness. LOL. Really? Just joshing....

[Hurricanehink]

The swirl west of the Yucatan reminds me of Andrea. It was just a swirl, and then after a burst of convection it really ramped up. The 2 pm TWO will be interesting.