Texas Summer - 2013

[somethingfunny]

My neighborhood got clobbered by wind last night.

[Ntxw]

I saw on the news, some buildings were damaged must've been some storm. Saw lightning here near the airport and a brief period of rain but wasn't much overnight.

I posted this for the fall thoughts over in the winter thread. Thought this little tidbit I made might interest some. 1961, 1990, 2001, and 2008 were the analogs I chose.

Tropics Connection: With the exception of 1990 these analog years that I have chosen were very active seasons for tropical cyclones in the gulf coast region. Again with the exception of 1990 Texas was effected by a significant named system in all but one. Hurricane Carla, Tropical storm Allison, and Hurricane Ike. A very notorious bunch. This would explain the cool patch seen on the maps posted above in the south for the fall.

[South Texas Storms]

Here is my latest weather article on our rain chances the next few days, and the now active tropics!
http://www.examiner.com/article/rain-ch ... ve-tropics

[weatherdude1108]

First time in a long time the ridge o' misery has not been mentioned in the ewx discussion. Praying the tropics give us relief!


000
FXUS64 KEWX 150853
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
353 AM CDT THU AUG 15 2013

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH STALLED ACROSS THE CWA YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. SUBTLE CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE WASHED-OUT FRONT WILL INTERACT WITH DIURNAL HEATING TO
PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTION WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS
BUT WANE OVERNIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. BETTER
CHANCES FOR RAIN AND HIGHER CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES
ACROSS OUR NERN TIER OF COUNTIES MOSTLY IN THE MID 90S.
OTHERWISE...HIGHS WILL AGAIN REACH THE UPPER 90S TO A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE 100 ACROSS THE REGION.

AN IMPULSE IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL SLIDE INTO THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS LATE TODAY AND CONTINUE TO PROGRESS TOWARD SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS. THIS FEATURE WILL GIVE US ANOTHER SHOT FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON. HIGHS ON
FRIDAY WILL AGAIN BE SEASONABLY WARM AND MOSTLY IN THE UPPER
90S/NEAR 100...AND CLOSE TO 105 ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES WILL EXIT THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER
WEAKNESS MOVES OUT OF THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. A DISORGANIZED AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CURRENTLY ACROSS THE YUCATAN PENINSULA WILL SLOWLY DRIFT
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS
SYSTEM TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT ENTERS THE GULF. MODELS
AREN`T QUITE SURE HOW TO HANDLE THIS SYSTEM...BUT AT THE VERY
LEAST THE LOW SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ENHANCE ONSHORE FLOW ACROSS
SOUTH TEXAS WHICH IN TURN WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO POOL IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. DURING THIS TIME...THE UPPER LEVELS WILL LACK GOOD
STABILITY AND THEREFORE THINK THAT THE DISORGANIZED PATTERN ALOFT
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING AND ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. HOWEVER...RAIN CHANCES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON THE DEVELOPMENT AND
PATH OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND THE FORECAST WILL LIKELY
UNDERGO SEVERAL CHANGES BETWEEN NOW AND THEN.

BOTH HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGHS WILL BEGIN TO MODERATE ON TUESDAY
IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WILL GENERALLY REMAIN
BELOW 100. SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR THIS WEEKEND WILL HELP KEEP SKIES
MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT ALLOWING LOWS SUNDAY AND MONDAY MORNING TO
BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN WE HAVE HAD RECENTLY. ONCE THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE THOUGH...CLOUDIER AND WARMER
MORNINGS WILL RETURN.

[Ntxw]

So I decided to do a run this morning and man Tireman4 would love this! Not chilly by any means but this dry steady easterly breeze/overcast made it feel like I was jogging in an air conditioned facility . Hasn't been this nice mid July

[Tireman4]

So I decided to do a run this morning and man Tireman4 would love this! Not chilly by any means but this dry steady easterly breeze/overcast made it feel like I was jogging in an air conditioned facility . Hasn't been this nice mid July

Ha ha. Good for you. . It is still humid and sultry here. Also overcast. I am expecting to be soaked today. Yet again. Well, if I can get over my Compartment Syndrome with my insert adjustment today, I might be able to run the Lake Houston 10K this Saturday around 45-46 striding. Seriously, I am glad you get to run in good weather. Maybe we will get some of that...maybe...

[Portastorm]

Another afternoon of rain on the AUS radar but nothing in AUS. I certainly hope our bad luck doesn't continue and some of these showers/storms hit the metro area before sunset.

[weatherdude1108]

Another afternoon of rain on the AUS radar but nothing in AUS. I certainly hope our bad luck doesn't continue and some of these showers/storms hit the metro area before sunset.

Well, on my side of town, lightning, thunder, and light rain. 0.02-inch recorded so far.

Looks like your side of town may be getting some of the red in this cell Porta(?).

[weatherdude1108]

Officially 0.06-inch last night. Hopeful more will come from the north today.

[Ntxw]

Another gorgeous mid August morning in the Metroplex. About 65-68 degrees and light rain. Did I mention it was mid August?

[Portastorm]

Another afternoon of rain on the AUS radar but nothing in AUS. I certainly hope our bad luck doesn't continue and some of these showers/storms hit the metro area before sunset.

Well, on my side of town, lightning, thunder, and light rain. 0.02-inch recorded so far.

Looks like your side of town may be getting some of the red in this cell Porta(?).

Yeah we got blasted! The most intense part of that mesoscale system hit us in west/southwest Austin. Recorded about .92 inches of rain. Lot of lightning and thunder. For once we were able to enjoy a real thunderstorm! Perhaps it was my weather anti-jinx which I issued last night on Twitter and Facebook, saying that it would never...ever rain again in Austin.

[Tireman4]

Ntwx,

Do you see Summer winding down? I mean, yeah it is..meteorologically speaking, but anymore fronts coming our way (Yes, I know..in September..LOL)? Second, what are the odds we see any 100's anymore this Summer ( All the Texas pro mets can chime in too..? I was thinking maybe one or two, but we may (huge maybe) have seen the last of them.

[Rgv20]

I wish I could say the same for my part of the State! Forecast high today is 104 and 100+ for the next 7 days! Hopefully 92L sends some welcome rains to Texas!

[Ntxw]

Ntwx,

Do you see Summer winding down? I mean, yeah it is..meteorologically speaking, but anymore fronts coming our way (Yes, I know..in September..LOL)? Second, what are the odds we see any 100's anymore this Summer ( All the Texas pro mets can chime in too..? I was thinking maybe one or two, but we may (huge maybe) have seen the last of them.

Climo yes, streaks of 100 probably over. Big cold fronts? I have my doubts. You should look to the tropics, most of the cooler air will probably come from that way, humid though.

[weatherdude1108]

Another afternoon of rain on the AUS radar but nothing in AUS. I certainly hope our bad luck doesn't continue and some of these showers/storms hit the metro area before sunset.

Well, on my side of town, lightning, thunder, and light rain. 0.02-inch recorded so far.

Looks like your side of town may be getting some of the red in this cell Porta(?).

Yeah we got blasted! The most intense part of that mesoscale system hit us in west/southwest Austin. Recorded about .92 inches of rain. Lot of lightning and thunder. For once we were able to enjoy a real thunderstorm! Perhaps it was my weather anti-jinx which I issued last night on Twitter and Facebook, saying that it would never...ever rain again in Austin.

Haha! I know what you mean.

That is great Porta! It's about time you got in on the wealth.

I wish I could say the same for my area. Just ended up with light rain and a total of 0.06 inch. I'm also watching that MCV come in from the north, literally evaporating as it approaches Austin. Gee, that doesn't look familiar!

[Portastorm]

Yeahbuddy ... we both know that this morning's MCV evaporating prior to reaching the Austin metro area is a common event for us. I was hopeful when I woke up and saw that blob headed our way. Well, perhaps it'll lay down an outflow boundary which, with daily heating, might kick up some storms. Or ... maybe we'll really score and get 92L in the WGOM to form into a named system and move this way. Or not.

[Ntxw]

FW put this little snippet in today's discussion. Lets hope they are onto something, many of us would be happy campers if this came to fruition. 92L can be our first candidate to get the idea going . I loved their discussion today about how tropical systems can make their way to Texas, it was fascinating.

***

.CLIMATE...
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER RELEASED NEW LONG RANGE OUTLOOKS ON
THURSDAY. BASED PRIMARILY ON DYNAMICAL MODEL OUTPUT...THE OUTLOOKS
NOW FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION DURING THE UPCOMING AUTUMN...
WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY ONE OF THE WETTEST TIMES OF THE YEAR.
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION WOULD CERTAINLY EASE DROUGHT
CONDITIONS...THE HYDROLOGIC DROUGHT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST. AS
SUCH...THE U.S. SEASONAL DROUGHT OUTLOOK FAVORS IMPROVEMENT BUT
NOT ELIMINATION OF THE DROUGHT ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL TEXAS
THROUGH THE END OF NOVEMBER.

[somethingfunny]

FWD also gave us two long paragraphs about 92L:

HOWEVER WE WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON A POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM
IN THE GULF. AN ELONGATED SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS NOW
LOCATED FROM TALLAHASSEE TO VERACRUZ WITH A WELL DEFINED SURFACE
LOW SEEN ON VISIBLE SATELLITE SPINNING NORTHWEST OF THE YUCATAN.
THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS FIGHTING A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT...
AS WATER VAPOR NOW SHOWS A COLD CORE UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARLY ON TOP
OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. TROPICAL SYSTEMS ARE WARM CORE...
MEANING SURFACE PRESSURES ARE LOW BECAUSE THEY ARE ESSENTIALLY A
COLUMN OF WARM...LESS DENSE AIR. COLD CORE SYSTEMS HAVE LOW
SURFACE PRESSURES DUE TO BAROCLINIC FORCING THAT CREATES A SORT OF
VACUUM THAT EVACUATES AIR ALOFT. COLD CORE LOWS CAN TRANSITION TO
WARM CORE LOWS...BUT IT REQUIRES THE RELEASE OF LATENT HEAT FROM
PERSISTENT CONVECTION TO WARM THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN. THIS PROCESS
IS OFTEN NOT VERY FAST...BUT IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT NEARLY
ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE FORECAST THE UPPER COLD CORE LOW OVER
THE SURFACE LOW TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AND SHOWS
A STRENGTHENING OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. NHC IS FORECASTING A
50-60 PERCENT CHANCE THIS SYSTEM ORGANIZES INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...SO IT IS MORE LIKELY THAN NOT SOMETHING WILL DEVELOP IN
THE GULF OUT OF THIS DISTURBED AREA.

SO WHERE WOULD IT TRACK? THE GUIDANCE IS VERY SPLIT...FORECASTING
ANYWHERE FROM CENTRAL MEXICO TO LOUISIANA. TYPICALLY AN UPPER HIGH
CENTERED NORTHWEST OF TEXAS MEANS THERE IS AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS TENDS TO EITHER STEER GULF
SYSTEMS WEST INTO MEXICO IF THEY ARE MORE INFLUENCED BY THE UPPER
HIGH...OR NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN GULF COAST IF THE UPPER TROUGH
CAN PICK IT UP. A TEXAS LANDFALL IS MORE TRICKY AND REQUIRES THE
UPPER TROUGH TO GENTLY PICK THE TROPICAL SYSTEM UP...BUT THEN THE
UPPER TROUGH HAS TO WEAKEN CAUSING THE UPPER HIGH TO TAKE OVER THE
STEERING FLOW...TURNING THE CYCLONE BACK TO THE WEST. HURRICANE
CLAUDETTE IN 2003 WAS THE LAST LAND FALLING TEXAS HURRICANE TO
PERFORM THIS MANEUVER...BUT MAJOR HURRICANE BRET IN 1999 DID IT AS
WELL. MOST MODEL GUIDANCE DOES SHOW THE UPPER TROUGH WEAKENING
WITH RISING HEIGHTS OCCURRING OVER MEMPHIS MONDAY-TUESDAY. BUT
ONLY THE MODEL GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS A SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE
TROPICAL SURFACE LOW ARE FORECASTING THE TURN BACK TO THE
NORTHWEST THAT WOULD IMPACT TEXAS. MODELS THAT ARE FASTER WITH THE
MOTION THIS WEEKEND EITHER PUT IT INTO MEXICO OR LOUISIANA. AND
OF COURSE SOME MODELS SHOW NO DEVELOPMENT AT ALL. SO IN SHORT...
THE SLOWER THAT THIS POTENTIAL TROPICAL SYSTEM WERE TO MOVE TO
THE NORTH OR LINGER IN THE GULF...THE GREATER THE CHANCE IT WOULD
IMPACT TEXAS. SHOULD THE SYSTEM IMPACT TEXAS...THE MOST LIKELY DAY
WOULD BE TUESDAY AND WE WOULD NEED TO ADD SOME POPS TO AT LEAST
THE SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. RIGHT NOW
THAT PROBABILITY IS TOO LOW...AND WILL KEEP POPS AT 10 PERCENT.

[Portastorm]

Well, I'm a little more optimistic than usual about our rain chances in central and south Texas for this next week. Both the GFS and Euro have moisture from 92L moving into the state and creating a "wetter" picture, especially midweek. As of now, 92L doesn't look like it's going to organize much but that could change and if it does, that may impact our rain chances. Also, the Euro is showing a Pacific tropical system moving up the western coast of Mexico and that can sometimes sling Pacific moisture over our state. Wouldn't it be awesome if we got both?!

Yeah ... I know ... we'll probably get neither.

[horselattitudesfarm]

the donut hole continues for us here in Collin County (red circle). Its funny how that big block of precip out west just hits a wall before getting here, but continues through Dallas County and then goes up again just east of us and rolls into the Greenville area (orange arrow)



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