ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

There is definitely a spin to west of Merida that just emerged over water. What confuses me is that the ULL kind of gets lost in the last couple satellite frames.

[Dean4Storms]

The place to watch for development is north of the western Yucatan. Near about 22.5N/89.5W. That part of the disturbance isn't heading north into higher shear, it's heading WNW-NW where shear is much lighter - at least for 24-36 hrs. Then the GFS is indicating 40-50 kts wind shear from Tampico northward within 100 miles of the coast.

Agree and convection appears to be working its way toward that area.

[Dean4Storms]

There is definitely a spin to west of Merida that just emerged over water. What confuses me is that the ULL kind of gets lost in the last couple satellite frames.

Not on WV imagery, it's still there.

[Dean4Storms]

The wild card is that ULL, looks like it has stopped dropping SW and has turned a bit more westerly, maybe fixing to lift northward!

[HurriGuy]

Okay I see it now. Looks to be steady dropping SW.

[HouTXmetro]

At the current position, I just don't see how this thing can move north. The ULL is blocking a northward path. Until that ULL positions itself West or NW of 92L the likelihood of the trough influencing it is not that great IMO.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html

[HouTXmetro]

I have a dumb question. I'm just curious. I always hear talk of LLC not stacked with MLC etc. etc........Conversely, you hear of the rare occasion of a ULL working it's way down to the surface. With that said, is it ever possible for a LLC and separate ULL to merge and stack together? Why or why not, just curious.

[nautical wheeler]

It looks to my untrained eye like the ULL is getting weaker and could spin out pretty soon, aided by the convection on the east side of 92L. That convection appears to be "throwing a wrench" into the ULL for lack of a better description.

If the ULL does dissipate, certainly with its NW motion 92L could develop as others have said. The problem I see now is a lot of dry air in Texas that it's going to have to deal with if it does get its act together.

Just taking stabs here since I'm new at this.

[Steve]

>>I have a dumb question. I'm just curious. I always hear talk of LLC not stacked with MLC etc. etc........Conversely, you hear of the rare occasion of a ULL working it's way down to the surface. With that said, is it ever possible for a LLC and separate ULL to merge and stack together? Why or why not, just curious.

Yes. But it works a little differently than stacking up. Often times warm core systems will get absorbed into larger upper level systems (look up "phasing") which then sometimes partially transition into warmcore or hybrid systems for a while. This often happens just off the SE Coast during the transitonal time between the end of tropical season and beginning of winter. You'll see a low and then all of the sudden the convection will seem to jump 100 miles (or whatever) north. It's an interesting process to watch on satellite. There are some variants on this and sometimes where you have a giant weather complex (such as "perfect storm") merging together.

Steve

[Rgv20]

Lets see if it can hold on..

[HouTXmetro]

>>I have a dumb question. I'm just curious. I always hear talk of LLC not stacked with MLC etc. etc........Conversely, you hear of the rare occasion of a ULL working it's way down to the surface. With that said, is it ever possible for a LLC and separate ULL to merge and stack together? Why or why not, just curious.

Yes. But it works a little differently than stacking up. Often times warm core systems will get absorbed into larger upper level systems (look up "phasing") which then sometimes partially transition into warmcore or hybrid systems for a while. This often happens just off the SE Coast during the transitonal time between the end of tropical season and beginning of winter. You'll see a low and then all of the sudden the convection will seem to jump 100 miles (or whatever) north. It's an interesting process to watch on satellite. There are some variants on this and sometimes where you have a giant weather complex (such as "perfect storm") merging together.

Steve

Thanks Steve

[CaneCurious]

Is Recon going to go out today?

[cycloneye]

Is Recon going to go out today?

From 8 AM TWO:

THE AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
TODAY HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

[Dean4Storms]

Another Lower Level rotation near 22N 89W.

[ROCK]

naked swirl which is better than what it was in the carib.... that top portion that was the fuss last night was never in game...

['CaneFreak]

Looks like it is has moved westward as mentioned last night and is now nearly stationary as it has hit those weak low level steering currents.

[Sanibel]

Definitely left fork not right. (Dunce icon)

[Bailey1777]

yea---was going to say---doesnt seem to be moving much.

[MGC]

With that big trough coming down, I'd expect the ULL to move northward. Lots of dry air at mid levels in western GOM due to the ULL so that low might have a hard time getting going. Is it possible another low forms in convection in eastern GOM?....MGC

[Javlin]

>>I have a dumb question. I'm just curious. I always hear talk of LLC not stacked with MLC etc. etc........Conversely, you hear of the rare occasion of a ULL working it's way down to the surface. With that said, is it ever possible for a LLC and separate ULL to merge and stack together? Why or why not, just curious.

Yes. But it works a little differently than stacking up. Often times warm core systems will get absorbed into larger upper level systems (look up "phasing") which then sometimes partially transition into warmcore or hybrid systems for a while. This often happens just off the SE Coast during the transitonal time between the end of tropical season and beginning of winter. You'll see a low and then all of the sudden the convection will seem to jump 100 miles (or whatever) north. It's an interesting process to watch on satellite. There are some variants on this and sometimes where you have a giant weather complex (such as "perfect storm") merging together.

Steve

Getting hard to decern the two locations on Satellite looks like maybe 100 miles seperate the two?Just looked @two loops WV and the one above side by side and it's 60miles or so 1' to NNE is the ULL