ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

I wouldn't write this off by no means, did everyone forget the sheared mess of a 1st Storm this year that formed in the eastern Gulf with little model support and crossed the FL Peninsula?

Lots of energy and organization still remains here!

[Stormcenter]

Agree.

I wouldn't write this off by no means, did everyone forget the sheared mess of a 1st Storm this year that formed in the eastern Gulf with little model support and crossed the FL Peninsula?

Lots of energy and organization still remains here!

[gatorcane]

I wouldn't write this off by no means, did everyone forget the sheared mess of a 1st Storm this year that formed in the eastern Gulf with little model support and crossed the FL Peninsula?

Lots of energy and organization still remains here!

Quite possibly but as WxMan57 noted, the southern part may have a chance at developing after it crosses the Yucatan in the BOC. If anything tries to go north into the high shear zone in the Gulf, it would likely be ripped apart with 50K to 60K of shear in the Northern Gulf.

Looks more like June across the Gulf than August with all the shear and the trough.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[caneman]

That part getting pulled North will only continue to shear off. The remainder will travel West and won't do much unless it sits and stews down there. Long way to go for anything to happen. IMO. I think all models now show nothing is that correct?

['CaneFreak]

No surprise but recon cancelled for today

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=115428&p=2331133#p2331133

[tropicwatch]

Conditions in Yucatan gives the appearance of circulation based on wind directions.

http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... d.type=00Q

[brunota2003]

And with today's TCPOD coming out, all AF flights have been canceled as well. No flights until tomorrow...if necessary.

[Stormlover2012]

To dangerous for recon to go out since system is over land

[MGC]

What a difference a day makes....yesterday it looked like 92L was a sure bet, today, thank you ULL.....MGC

[Stormcenter]

Things can change for the better or worse in the tropics quickly. As I've stated before I would not write off anything in tropics especially in August
until it's completely dissipated or inland. IMO

What a difference a day makes....yesterday it looked like 92L was a sure bet, today, thank you ULL.....MGC

[CYCLONE MIKE]

[Quote]It goes against climatology. The northeast is cool and there's a lot of rain so the August Gulf isn't a normal year with hostile shear etc.. Still, I'd watch this.[quote]

[Quote]Looks more like June across the Gulf than August with all the shear and the trough.[quote]

Couldn't agree more. I said it last month and was told its only July. Now that its mid august who knows what the excuse will be. Guess maybe wait til mid September

[BigA]

I still would not be surprised to see a piece of this move into the BOC and develop, as conditions are reasonably favorable there and there is still solid 850 mb vorticity associated with the system centered near Belize. That said, serious impacts to the US look a lot less likely than yesterday, though they cannot yet be ruled out.

[Stormcenter]

You can see what looks like a rotation crossing the upper Yucatan and headed to the GOM in this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[BigA]

Couldn't agree more. I said it last month and was told its only July. Now that its mid august who knows what the excuse will be. Guess maybe wait til mid September

A lot of this has to do with a persistent trough in the eastern third of the US during the last couple of weeks. Models have been reliably showing a pattern change to more ridging and warmer temperatures in the eastern US in the next couple of weeks, which should reduce shear over the GOM.

[ROCK]

You can see what looks like a rotation crossing the upper Yucatan and headed to the GOM in this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

thats another naked swirl....second one I have seen this morning.

[hurricanekid416]

It's looking better to me then it did this morning

[Dean4Storms]

New SE and Gulf 1minute Satellite links...


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/goes/srsor20 ... SRSOR.html

[Tireman4]

You can see what looks like a rotation crossing the upper Yucatan and headed to the GOM in this loop.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

thats another naked swirl....second one I have seen this morning.

I see the eye...

[Dean4Storms]

Convection really taking off between NE coast of Yucatan and Cuba over the channel. Even a swirl or two!

[Stormcenter]

Tip of Yucatan continues to look interesting. IMO

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html