ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[tolakram]

So now only a 20% chance to not develop.

I'm not a big fan of the forecast percentages. They seem to be about as accurate as intensity forecasts.

[RL3AO]

So now only a 20% chance to not develop.

I'm not a big fan of the forecast percentages. They seem to be about as accurate as intensity forecasts.

When you look at their verification, they're actually pretty good at them.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

cycloneye, that was the 2am. They have yet to post the 8am. (that I can find, which is now late)

Edit, just came out:

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER LAND HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

2 AM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW NEAR 18N85W OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 14N84W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. A BROAD AREA OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL CYCLONIC ROTATION COVERS THE AREA WITH DISSIPATING
SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 14N-23N BETWEEN
79W-88W INCLUDING CUBA...CAYMAN ISLANDS...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AMERICA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE SYSTEM SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY.
BY FRIDAY THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
SYSTEM.

[Gustywind]

8 PM Discussion.


TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN
CHANNEL NEAR 22N85W THROUGH A 1010 MB LOW NEAR 18N87W OVER
CENTRAL AMERICA TO NEAR 15N87W MOVING W-NW NEAR 10 KT. WAVE
REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE AS DEPICTED IN
TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. THE MID LEVEL CYCLONIC
ROTATION IS E OF THE LOW/WAVE. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-25N ACROSS CUBA AND THROUGH THE
YUCATAN CHANNEL TO OVER THE SE GULF BETWEEN 80W-88W. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

[Gustywind]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 15 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE WEATHER
DISTURBANCE IN THE EXTREME NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS BECOME
LESS ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT WITH MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY NOW
MOVING OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM BEFORE IT MOVES OVER LAND HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY...HOWEVER
THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT ONCE THE DISTURBANCE MOVES
OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&
PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL STORM ERIN ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT35 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT5.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT25 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT5.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[wxman57]

I think 50% is quite generous. Thinking 20-30% at most. Just way too much shear now. Upper low to NW, upper high to SE. Not in a good position to develop. If it tracks north it runs into 50-60kt SW winds off the LA coast in 24-36 hrs. I think part of the moisture goes north, part west. Have to watch the part that goes west more, as it may be the only chance of development.

...having to hold Bones back from the mic now.

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers. Same intensity.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
15/1145 UTC 18.8N 85.5W T1.0/1.0 92L
15/0545 UTC 18.0N 84.9W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/2345 UTC 17.5N 84.3W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1745 UTC 17.7N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1145 UTC 17.6N 82.6W TOO WEAK 92L

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081512, , BEST, 0, 188N, 876W, 25, 1008, DB

[Roxy]

we could use the rain, but don't need much else. thanks for everyone's thoughts, I always enjoy watching canes with ya'll every season!

[tolakram]

Shear map this morning.

[deltadog03]

Ya, I thought it had a chance to make a low to mid grade TS, but that was yesterday when it looked like it could do something, but now....nah....nothing really more than just some very heavy rains into the SE. Next!!

[gatorcane]

I think 50% is quite generous. Thinking 20-30% at most. Just way too much shear now. Upper low to NW, upper high to SE. Not in a good position to develop. If it tracks north it runs into 50-60kt SW winds off the LA coast in 24-36 hrs. I think part of the moisture goes north, part west. Have to watch the part that goes west more, as it may be the only chance of development.

...having to hold Bones back from the mic now.

Yeah it is looking rather pathetic. In fact looking back and comparing this to what happened with Dorian in the Bahamas, it was very similar.

Had a great Mid-level circulation but the low-level circulation was not vertically stacked due to SW shear and all the convection just collapsed.

Good news is that so far systems with a potential threat to the U.S. and Caribbean islands just can't seems to get get going this year so far, no matter how great they can look on Satellite only giving the illusion they are much more organized than they really are.

Hope the luck continues...

[ROCK]

That is one ugly TW....D-max did nothing for this..

[Stormcenter]

I wouldn't DOA this just yet. IMO

[bamajammer4eva]

It's been Dynomatted!

Sent from my Droid Charge using Tapatalk 2

[tailgater]

I agree it doesn't look that good on sat loops but the low level wind field seems to have improved with easterly wind on the northern part of the Yucactan and westerly winds to southern portion. I just looked at the WV loops and I don't see how the upper level conditions are gonna improve for the next couple days.

[ROCK]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... height=480


just spit out a low level swirl to the north of the Yucatan...this thing needs help or pull the plug..

[Javlin]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480


just spit out a low level swirl to the north of the Yucatan...this thing needs help or pull the plug..

Looking more like a trof axis than anything else ATTM.

[Sanibel]

It goes against climatology. The northeast is cool and there's a lot of rain so the August Gulf isn't a normal year with hostile shear etc.. Still, I'd watch this.