ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Florida1118]

It's looking kinda sickly tonight. I'm not so sure it is going develop into more than it is right now. It's going to have to fight because today was the day to get its act together. The conditions were all there and it didn't do it.

It got more organized (just read the NHC's TWO's from today), and it wasnt expected to develop today really anyway. And yeah its missing convection, its DMIN. That was expected.

[ozonepete]

Yeah you are right. It did get more organized today. After it undergoes DMAX tonight and looks intense tomorrow morning everyone will be getting on here saying how incredible it is and how it's going to be a hurricane. It's the storm2k daily drill, lol.

[galaxy401]

:uarrow: Yeah you are right. It did get more organized today. After it undergoes DMAX tonight and looks intense tomorrow morning everyone will be getting on here saying how incredible it is and how it's going to be a hurricane. It's the storm2k daily drill, lol.

The Storm2k mood pulses just like the storm.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Will have to be one hell of an intensification period to go through for me to be saying its going to become a hurricane.

[tailgater]

Just now starting to refire, also notice that the NHC has the low aligned with MLC now.

[Hurricane Alexis]

2am TWO.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

[Extratropical94]

Latest TWO: 70/80%

Edit:Hurricane Alexis beat me to it.

Note that they do not mention worse conditions in the GOM anymore.

[Extratropical94]

Weakened some according to the 06Z Best Track, down to 25 kt from 30, and the pressure rose from 1007 to 1008.

AL, 92, 2013081500, , BEST, 0, 177N, 859W, 30, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 200, 80, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 92, 2013081506, , BEST, 0, 180N, 870W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 200, 80, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[GCANE]

Looking at CIMSS 200mb vorticity, it appears to me the ULL at 24N 88W is beginning to break up.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/huwvloop.html


850mb vorticity is weak will little discernible convergence as seen on MIMIC-TPW

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html


Vorticity appears to be better defined at 500mb, east of the LLC

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


Anticyclone is situated west of the 500mb vorticity max

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=


Rain rate is minimal and water vapor appears to be diminishing in the mid troposphere

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... bean.0.jpg

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html


System appears to be struggling at the moment. Will need to fire off some strong convection in order to ramp up.

Need to see how it works out this afternoon when solar heating could kick off convection over the Yucatan.

[GCANE]

Euro, GFS, & UKMET are agreeing on the 700mb OW track along the Yucatan coast.

This could be significant particularly if the ULL is in fact breaking up and vorticity is more concentrated in the mid troposphere.

http://www.met.nps.edu/~mtmontgo/synops ... 081400.txt

[GCANE]

Convection firing much closer to the ULL which should help to weaken it more.

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/ ... nhanced+24

[EastCoastlow]

GFS – Keeps 92L weak and moves it towards the North-central Gulf Coast

CMC – Develops 92L in the Southern Gulf and slowly tracks 92L as a hurricane towards TX/Mexico border

GFS Ensembles – Clustered along Central Gulf Coast

NOGAPS – Keeps 92L weak and tracks towards the Western Florida Panhandle

EURO – Keeps 92L an open wave and moves towards the Central Gulf Coast

HWRF – Develops 92L into a hurricane and moves towards the Louisiana/MS Gulf Coast

[caneman]

Just not feeling it with this one. Had its chance yesterday. Look East.

[Hurricane Alexis]

Given recent trends with 92L I think chances of development will be lowered at the 8 am TWO.

[wxman57]

Not looking good at all this morning. A lot less organized than yesterday. Upper low to the NW is stretching out the convection. Development chances diminishing.

[Frank P]

Not sure if I would put a fork in it just yet... viewing the IR Sat Loops indicate some decent convection starting to fire off this morning as it approaches the Yucatan...

[Ntxw]

As I pointed out one of the talkin tropics thread, development right now was assisted by a kelvin wave and would be short. 92L (and td5 too I believe) best conditions have already past them. A sheared/elongated or split feature may be it's destiny once moving out of the Yucatan. Just my two cents.

[Frank P]

As I pointed out one of the talkin tropics thread, development right now was assisted by a kelvin wave and would be short. 92L (and td5 too I believe) best conditions have already past them. A sheared/elongated or split feature may be it's destiny once moving out of the Yucatan. Just my two cents.

I agree and the Gulf conditions do look quite hostile for any future development..

[tolakram]

latest



live loop for later today: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

[cycloneye]

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA HAS DECREASED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD DEVELOP IN THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE DISTURBANCE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10
MPH AND SHOULD REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA LATER TODAY. BY
FRIDAY...THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...80
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS
AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD OVER WESTERN CUBA...THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO...AND
INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.