ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[MGC]

Yes, no doubt there is now some obvious cyclonic spin to 92L at the mid levels. So, where will the LL center form if it does? UL conditions are near ideal right now, down the road when it gets into the GOM it might be a different story. That ULL or shear axis is stubborn or so it appears, so expect so increased shear as 92L enters the GOM. I am going with the northern solution. On WWL TV at noon, the model the met ran showed a TC approaching the Louisiana coast, can't remember the name of the model but it was one the station pays for, not the GFS or Euro......MGC

The above is the opinion of MGC and not an official forecast.

[ROCK]

thats where I have the low as well on that map....easy to see on 1KM view.... NWS in Houston has good idea. Follow the EURO....

if its moving at 15 knts and 180 east of the Yucatan, I was off by 2 hours...10pm..

[tailgater]

Here is an image of where NHC has the low. Looks like it is on the western side of the big blob, so that would mean there is some shear impacting this system:

I doubt that's where the llc is if there was a llc which it may not have its where the storm is wrapping up not saying nhc is wrong because they are professionals

NHC has all the tools to tell where an LLC is, now that's not saying one will not form to the northeast with the T-storms but I think they have it right and this system will likely stay weak if the Low level circualtion and mid level circulation don't align which is very possible.

[vbhoutex]

Is there a chance this makes it as far west as Tx/La border?

I think the possibilities that have been previously discussed are the most likely. Those are N Gulf Coast from NO East to the FL panhandle or Northern Mexico somewhere S of Brownsville. Personally I am still split on which one to go with, but if the LLC initializes further West than the convection I would pick the Southern route. However, based on modeling right now I think the N Gulf solution is most likely. Intensity is up in the air for me.

[cigtyme]

MGC, sure it wasn't BoB Breck and his damn Vipr model. LoL

[MGC]

Not Bob Breck, it was Ch 4. It will be interesting to see what Bob has to say tonight.....MGC

[deltadog03]

It was prolly the RPM

[tropicwatch]

This is a starting to be a nice looking system with outflow to the north and northeast. It also appears to be being pulled a little more northward.

[stormhunter7]

Just a note, IMO... The NAVGEM (New Navy Model) has done extremely well with 92L and its current position is pretty close to what system had on sun/mon/tues.

[CaneCurious]

Not Bob Breck, it was Ch 4. It will be interesting to see what Bob has to say tonight.....MGC

It was Derek Kevra on WWL and it was the Precisioncast Model. He posted on his Facebook page that the model changed its tune this afternoon and shows more of a sheared system affecting us here in SELA.

[Frank P]

Gee, if it continues that path as shown in the vis sat loop above it might just clip the NE section of the Yucatan Pens... and not spend very much time over land...

[CrazyC83]

Gee, if it continues that path as shown in the vis sat loop above it might just clip the NE section of the Yucatan Pens... and not spend very much time over land...

That would probably send it racing northeast with the trough as well...so many possibilities.

[Dean4Storms]

It gets deeper and organized more than the models have indicated before the Yucatan it very well could go more poleward against the weakening Atlantic Ridging over the Gulf.

[Blinhart]

My question is what is the likely hood of 92L to miss the trough that is dipping down into the Northern GoM and end up staying in the GoM meandering around for a few days until there is something there to actually direct it to go either West, North, or North East?

Right now my thinking is that if it develops a little faster and a little more to the East than what the NHC is depicting right now, I have a feeling final landfall will be somewhere in between Sabine Pass and Tallahassee. Now if it decides to stay a week wave and doesn't form, it could possibly die over the flats of the Yucatan Peninsula.

[wxwatcher4405]

My question is what is the likely hood of 92L to miss the trough that is dipping down into the Northern GoM and end up staying in the GoM meandering around for a few days until there is something there to actually direct it to go either West, North, or North East?

Right now my thinking is that if it develops a little faster and a little more to the East than what the NHC is depicting right now, I have a feeling final landfall will be somewhere in between Sabine Pass and Tallahassee. Now if it decides to stay a week wave and doesn't form, it could possibly die over the flats of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wow...Sabine Pass...do you really think it can go that far west?

[Blinhart]

My question is what is the likely hood of 92L to miss the trough that is dipping down into the Northern GoM and end up staying in the GoM meandering around for a few days until there is something there to actually direct it to go either West, North, or North East?

Right now my thinking is that if it develops a little faster and a little more to the East than what the NHC is depicting right now, I have a feeling final landfall will be somewhere in between Sabine Pass and Tallahassee. Now if it decides to stay a week wave and doesn't form, it could possibly die over the flats of the Yucatan Peninsula.

Wow...Sabine Pass...do you really think it can go that far west?

The difference between Sabine Pass and New Orleans is only a couple hundred miles, so yeah I think that is the furthest West it would be able to make it if it takes the Northern Path, normally I usually would of said Vermillion Bay, but my gut is telling me to look at the Sabine Pass area.

[ROCK]

I am almost 99% sure Sabine Pass is a tad west of guidance or east depending on what camp you are in....

[wxman57]

The difference between Sabine Pass and New Orleans is only a couple hundred miles, so yeah I think that is the furthest West it would be able to make it if it takes the Northern Path, normally I usually would of said Vermillion Bay, but my gut is telling me to look at the Sabine Pass area.

But that's a big difference with respect to the predicted mid to upper-level wind flow. East of Vermilion Bay, winds are out of the southwest aloft. West of there, NW winds aloft. Hard for a storm to track against the upper level winds and get to Sabine Pass.

[deltadog03]

I still say if it doesn't really develop, heads to south TX, if it does develop (and I think it will) should move quicker and make a landfall near MS/AL

[Rgv20]

Afternoon Discussion out of the NWS in San Antonio..

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL REMAIN RAIN
FREE SUNDAY THRU WEDNESDAY WITH ONE CAVEAT. THERE IS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WEST OF THE YUCATAN MOVING WESTWARD. THIS FEATURE MAY
BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AND THEN MOVE INTO THE BAY OF
CAMPECHE ON FRIDAY. SOME NUMERICAL MODELS FORECAST A SFC
CIRCULATION FORMING BY SATURDAY OVER THE SW GULF. THE MOVEMENT OF
THIS FEATURE MAY HAVE AN IMPACT ON OUR RAIN-FREE FORECAST FOR
NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SLIGHT
DOWNWARD TREND TOWARDS SEASONAL NORMALS DUE TO THE ABSENCE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.