ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[SunnyThoughts]

I just found this forum, and appreciate all the knowledge here. I'm in Destin, FL and this storm reminds me so much of Opal. Am I just being paranoid?

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

Hi Destin, Pensacola here ( actually Pace, but nobody would know where that is lol) welcome to the forum. Great meteorologists and information here.

[tolakram]

Live loops:

Zoom 1: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

[MiamiensisWx]

I definitely see a low-level vortex near 17.8°N 83.9°W on the latest visible satellite imagery, which is a bit SW of the mid-level circulation. I think that as convection continues to increase, the banding-type formation (a key precursor to TC genesis; note the comma shape on latest imagery) will tend to form a new LLC farther to the NE, under the MLC. Once that happens, there may be a quick jump to TS intensity that skips over the TD stage; we saw that with Arthur 2008 and other systems which formed in this area. Based upon the latest T-number estimates and the organization evident on satellite, I think we will see TS Erin within the next 12 hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-rgb-long.html

[Alyono]

Wouldn't that be something if this Erin headed toward the Pensacola area. Anyone living in Pensacola in 1995 remembers that Erin quite well before his big sister Opal came a few weeks later.

HIS big sister? LOL

[tailgater]

Latest from SSD... increasing numbers for 92L.



DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

14/1745 UTC 17.7N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1145 UTC 17.6N 82.6W TOO WEAK 92L

That would put it @ 225 miles from the Yucatan coast, so I guessing it wouldn't make Landfall till tomorrow morningish.

[DestinTiger]

I just found this forum, and appreciate all the knowledge here. I'm in Destin, FL and this storm reminds me so much of Opal. Am I just being paranoid?

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

Hi Destin, Pensacola here ( actually Pace, but nobody would know where that is lol) welcome to the forum. Great meteorologists and information here.

Thanks for the warm welcomes. Looking forward to soaking up all the information here. Hopefully avoiding getting soaked by this storm at the same time!

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

[RL3AO]

I can't tell if I'm seeing westerly winds in the lower levels or not on a loop. If I stare at it any longer, I can probably make myself see anything.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Live loops:

Zoom 1: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

How do you link the loops on GHCC?

[Ivanhater]

Wouldn't that be something if this Erin headed toward the Pensacola area. Anyone living in Pensacola in 1995 remembers that Erin quite well before his big sister Opal came a few weeks later.

HIS big sister? LOL

Gender confusion...sorry Erin!

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Must say I am impressed by how well this looks in appearance on satellite this afternoon. But as we have have seen a few times so far this season, looks aren't everything.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

This system is really getting its act together quickly. Goodness. If this convection continues, it will help the system organize quicker. Hopefully it wont be much when it crosses the Yucatan though

[cycloneye]

[tolakram]

Live loops:

Zoom 1: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

Zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=15

How do you link the loops on GHCC?

These are the build your own loops.

Main page: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/getsatellite.html

Here are the URLs for the loops I provided:

Code: Select all

Zoom 1:  http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15


You can change zoom level, lat and lon, etc.

[Rgv20]

Honestly if I was in the NHC staff I would hate to designate as a TD later today just because of the really tough forecast! lol Shortest discussion ever... "Its going to Rain in the Yucatan Peninsula...End of discussion" lol

[NDG]

Nice inflow setting up.

Conditions at 42057 as of
(12:50 pm EST)
1750 GMT on 08/14/2013:

Wind Direction (WDIR): SE ( 130 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 7.2 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 7 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.1 sec
Mean Wave Direction (MWD): E ( 100 deg true )
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.87 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 79.2 °F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.4 °F
Dew Point (DEWP): 75.9 °F
Heat Index (HEAT): 83.3 °F
Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 25.3 kts
Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 25.3 kts

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42057

[Airboy]

This could get a bit nasty if it goes north, looks like it will be a big circulation when it gets going.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

These are the build your own loops.

Main page: http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/getsatellite.html

Here are the URLs for the loops I provided:

Code: Select all

Zoom 1:  http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

Zoom 2: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=15&lon=-83&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15


You can change zoom level, lat and lon, etc.

Perfecttt. Thanks a ton.

[StormTracker]

Must say I am impressed by how well this looks in appearance on satellite this afternoon. But as we have have seen a few times so far this season, looks aren't everything.

Well we are now in mid-August! Things are a little different now!

[KatDaddy]

Invest 92L now up to 60% and code red. From the 2:00PM Tropical Weather Outlook:

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[Ivanhater]