ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

It looks like it's organizing a lot more quickly now, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up stronger than modeled as intensity forecasts have frequently been blown with numerous systems.

I've had a bad feeling about this one since the start. Take that for what it is worth.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[StormTracker]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/hemi/s_atlantic/current/s_atlantic.vis.gif

Just for a moment throw everything out the window that we know about weather! Now stare at this image for about 10 secs! What do you see? That's where we are right now with no RECON!

[StormTracker]

It looks like it's organizing a lot more quickly now, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up stronger than modeled as intensity forecasts have frequently been blown with numerous systems.

I've had a bad feeling about this one since the start. Take that for what it is worth.

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I also quoted in a few other threads in the last week or so that I have a bad feeling about the name ERIN!

[Ivanhater]

I think the faster this organizes, it will feel that weakness along the northern Gulf....looks to be on its way

[ScottNAtlanta]

The low level flow is straightening out towards the more northern MLC. If the low was farther south, would you not see some sort of curvature in the flow in this area? Its better seen in the loop, but wanted to show what I'm looking at

[wxman57]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/hemi/s_atlantic/current/s_atlantic.vis.gif

Just for a moment throw everything out the window that we know about weather! Now stare at this image for about 10 secs! What do you see? That's where we are right now with no RECON!

It does look a lot more impressive when you zoom out and look at it from a distance. Sometimes you have to step back a bit. Development chances approaching 100% within 24 hrs. Erin or Fernand. Probably Erin.

[Ivanhater]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/hemi/s_atlantic/current/s_atlantic.vis.gif

Just for a moment throw everything out the window that we know about weather! Now stare at this image for about 10 secs! What do you see? That's where we are right now with no RECON!

It does look a lot more impressive when you zoom out and look at it from a distance. Sometimes you have to step back a bit. Development chances approaching 100% within 24 hrs. Erin or Fernand. Probably Erin.

Wouldn't that be something if this Erin headed toward the Pensacola area. Anyone living in Pensacola in 1995 remembers that Erin quite well before his big sister Opal came a few weeks later.

[SunnyThoughts]

I think the faster this organizes, it will feel that weakness along the northern Gulf....looks to be on its way

I agree with you on that point. Sure not looking forward to the rain here in the panhandle, whether the systems ends up close to us or not, apparently we are in for a LOT of rain..and we are already saturated...hopefully it heads to a portion of the Gulf coast that actually needs the rain..if there is indeed a location that needs it.

[tailgater]

I love this Loop, you can see most of the factors in play.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

[Clint_TX]

http://climate.cod.edu/data/satellite/hemi/s_atlantic/current/s_atlantic.vis.gif

Just for a moment throw everything out the window that we know about weather! Now stare at this image for about 10 secs! What do you see? That's where we are right now with no RECON!

It does look a lot more impressive when you zoom out and look at it from a distance. Sometimes you have to step back a bit. Development chances approaching 100% within 24 hrs. Erin or Fernand. Probably Erin.

Good point

[Ivanhater]

I think the faster this organizes, it will feel that weakness along the northern Gulf....looks to be on its way

I agree with you on that point. Sure not looking forward to the rain here in the panhandle, whether the systems ends up close to us or not, apparently we are in for a LOT of rain..and we are already saturated...hopefully it heads to a portion of the Gulf coast that actually needs the rain..if there is indeed a location that needs it.

Good point about the rain...talked to my folks in Pensacola and they were telling me about how much rain they have had this summer...quite different out here in the west!

[petit_bois]

I love this Loop, you can see most of the factors in play.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... type=flash

Wow...
Fire In The Hole!

[ROCK]

I have it right around 17.9N and 85W....heading towards the Yucatan...might make TD before hitting land...

[NDG]

12z Euro shows the weakness to hang around the MS river valley, unlike what the CMC shows.

[ScottNAtlanta]

18.2N 83.2W is where I'm thinking the LLC is forming

[DestinTiger]

I just found this forum, and appreciate all the knowledge here. I'm in Destin, FL and this storm reminds me so much of Opal. Am I just being paranoid?

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[NDG]

I still don't see a sign of an LLC.
The surface trough is still clearly to the west of the well defined MLC.
Is going to be a little longer before the LLC forms underneath the MLC, IMO.

[Portastorm]

I just found this forum, and appreciate all the knowledge here. I'm in Destin, FL and this storm reminds me so much of Opal. Am I just being paranoid?

Sent from my HTC One using Tapatalk 2

Welcome to Storm2K! I would advise you continue soaking up the knowledge you're reading here. Probably a little early for Opal comparisons.

[Gustywind]

Latest from SSD... increasing numbers for 92L.



DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

14/1745 UTC 17.7N 84.8W T1.0/1.0 92L
14/1145 UTC 17.6N 82.6W TOO WEAK 92L

[RL3AO]

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

H. REMARKS...DISTURBANCE STILL APPEARS TO LACK A CLOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION. PBO ESTIMATED LOCATION OF TROF APEX. CONVECTION LOCATED 2
DEGREES EAST OF POSITION MEASURES GREATER THAN 2/10 FOR A DT OF 1.0. MET
AND PT ARE ALSO 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.