ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[Weatherboy1]

If I were a betting man, Id put the center of this mess around 18N, 84W which is (I believe) to the north and east of where most early model runs suggested this thing would go. Depending on where "Erin in waiting" cranks up, she could have a higher chance of taking the more northerly path, IMO. We shall see!

[northjaxpro]

The models are indeed useful. I am not stating that at all. I am just one who is waiting for Recon to go out there and confirm the data needed for more validation of a true fix of where the center is located.

I just get tired of the repeated model war discussion. I just think worrying about EURO vs GFS and how they have performed over the past few years are for another time and and for another discussion. That is just my opinion.

[SouthDadeFish]

Not sure how reliable some of these stations are on the Honduras coast, but I see multiple reports of light winds with a westerly component. Yes it is still broad, but it is coming together. I'm with the camp that we will have a tropical cyclone tomorrow.

[GCANE]

The morning's small hot towers / overshooting tops did a nice job building a cold-topped cirrus base (CDO).

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Latest hot-tower fired at 15:45Z for a short duration

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_a ... bean.0.jpg

Should see a warm core form most likely by this evening.

[ScottNAtlanta]

:uarrow: that X is way to far NE...get on a 1KM scan and look...you will see a weak rotation in the midlevels.

The lowest pressure seems to be hugging the coast but it looks like the low level flow is starting to turn towards the MLC farther north on the RGB loop. It would not be a rare event for the lowest pressure to form under the strongest convection which seems to be consolidating north

[ROCK]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

[NDG]

Code red now.

[Yellow Evan]

THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. CLOUDINESS AND
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS OF
ORGANIZATION...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THE
DISTURBANCE REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THURSDAY. AFTER
THAT...THIS WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO...WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS WILL LIKELY BE A LITTLE LESS
FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...60
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE FORECAST
TO SPREAD OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND BELIZE DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS DISTURBANCE.

[ScottNAtlanta]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

I see what you are saying, but I think the turning is starting to change

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tailgater]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

Yeah, Rock I might have put it @ 17.5N 84.5W but it looks a little troughy.

[ROCK]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

Yeah, Rock I might have put it @ 17.5N 84.5W but it looks a little troughy.

still broad area IMO....moving wnw...should be over land later tonight....

[StormTracker]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

I see what you are saying, but I think the turning is starting to change

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Maan if you're right, then all bets are off & everybody including the models are wrong!(I know ROCK, I know!)

[tailgater]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

Yeah, Rock I might have put it @ 17.5N 84.5W but it looks a little troughy.

still broad area IMO....moving wnw...should be over land later tonight....

Yea and a lot of times these weak systems get more organized as they cross the Yucatan.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Darn, I wonder if this will become Erin or if 93L will beat it to the punch? Exciting times once again in the tropics.

[Ivanhater]

[hurricaneCW]

It looks like it's organizing a lot more quickly now, I wouldn't be surprised if this ends up stronger than modeled as intensity forecasts have frequently been blown with numerous systems.

[BigA]

Sometimes the convection pulls the low-level circulation toward it and sometimes convection fires over the low-level circulation. What I'm seeing is that there is a mid-level circulation about 50-100 miles NE of the low-level circulation (or the best approximation of it in this early stage), and that both are moving between WNW and NW. It isn't apparent whether the mid-level circulation and convection will pull the nascent LLC inward, or whether they will continue apart until convection develops over the LLC and it intensifies.

[ScottNAtlanta]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

I see what you are saying, but I think the turning is starting to change

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

Maan if you're right, then all bets are off & everybody including the models are wrong!(I know ROCK, I know!)

It would not be the first time all the models were wrong...I've been on the side of a more northern development for a couple of days now

[wxman57]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

15 frames, speed it up, animate, just click on 92L....

Yeah, Rock I might have put it @ 17.5N 84.5W but it looks a little troughy.

I was thinking maybe 17.7N/84.5W. A good bit farther north than the latest HWRF initialized it.

[RL3AO]

Starting to look like a comma shape taking over the past few frames.