ATL: INVEST 92L - Models

[RL3AO]

Good point. While I usually ignore the SHIPs period, it does appear that the Western Caribbean is quite favorable. While I'm probably wrong, I just don't see whats stopping quicker than usual development until it moves over Mexico.

[Blown Away]

06z TAFB 72 hour position has both our Invests as "Possible Cyclones" with 92L heading towards Mexico in the southern BOC and 93L moving slowly across the Atlantic...

[tolakram]

Clearly they are going with the southern no development track, IMO, which explains the lower percentages.

[cycloneye]

06z run. The 12z should be out shortly.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1208 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130814 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 0600 130814 1800 130815 0600 130815 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 16.5N 82.0W 17.6N 84.6W 18.4N 87.0W 19.1N 89.1W
BAMD 16.5N 82.0W 17.5N 84.0W 18.4N 85.9W 19.2N 87.7W
BAMM 16.5N 82.0W 17.5N 84.1W 18.3N 86.1W 19.2N 88.0W
LBAR 16.5N 82.0W 17.2N 83.4W 18.5N 85.3W 20.1N 87.2W
SHIP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 38KTS
DSHP 20KTS 24KTS 30KTS 31KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 0600 130817 0600 130818 0600 130819 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 19.6N 90.7W 20.1N 92.7W 20.4N 95.0W 20.9N 97.8W
BAMD 20.0N 89.4W 21.2N 91.8W 22.4N 93.6W 24.4N 95.5W
BAMM 19.9N 89.5W 21.0N 91.9W 22.1N 94.0W 23.4N 96.4W
LBAR 21.8N 88.8W 26.1N 90.2W 33.2N 88.2W 38.9N 83.3W
SHIP 46KTS 63KTS 77KTS 69KTS
DSHP 28KTS 42KTS 56KTS 48KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.5N LONCUR = 82.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 5KT
LATM12 = 16.1N LONM12 = 81.0W DIRM12 = 285DEG SPDM12 = 4KT
LATM24 = 15.6N LONM24 = 79.6W
WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[sleepysilverdoor]

For the sake of avoiding undue stress, I realllllly hope that these models showing a south Texas landfall don't pan out. An evacuation situation would involve my wife taking our cats with our only functioning car, and me being holed up in the WFO sans transportation.

Though it WOULD shake up the summer doldrums, and my renter's insurance might pan out nicely in a worst case scenario. :p

[cycloneye]

12z run.

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1225 UTC WED AUG 14 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922013) 20130814 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130814 1200 130815 0000 130815 1200 130816 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 17.1N 82.8W 18.4N 85.5W 19.4N 87.9W 20.3N 89.8W
BAMD 17.1N 82.8W 18.3N 84.6W 19.4N 86.3W 20.4N 88.0W
BAMM 17.1N 82.8W 18.2N 84.8W 19.3N 86.8W 20.3N 88.6W
LBAR 17.1N 82.8W 18.2N 84.5W 19.7N 86.3W 21.4N 87.9W
SHIP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 46KTS
DSHP 25KTS 31KTS 38KTS 32KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130816 1200 130817 1200 130818 1200 130819 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 20.9N 91.3W 21.8N 92.8W 22.4N 94.1W 23.5N 96.8W
BAMD 21.4N 89.4W 23.6N 91.2W 27.5N 90.7W 32.7N 89.7W
BAMM 21.1N 90.1W 22.7N 91.8W 25.0N 92.2W 27.8N 93.3W
LBAR 23.3N 89.1W 28.5N 89.2W 36.0N 86.1W 39.8N 76.0W
SHIP 52KTS 72KTS 77KTS 67KTS
DSHP 33KTS 53KTS 58KTS 47KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.1N LONCUR = 82.8W DIRCUR = 300DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 16.2N LONM12 = 81.4W DIRM12 = 293DEG SPDM12 = 5KT
LATM24 = 16.0N LONM24 = 80.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 180NM WNDM12 = 20KT
CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$

[tolakram]

Did anyone mention the 0Z euro takes the vorticity near New Orleans in 96 hours? Looks like mostly a rain maker, but that's a significant shift north from previous runs.

[tolakram]

The 12Z yesterday has a spread out mess while the 0Z from last night takes it north and much better defined.

Here is a saved comparison

0Z today



12Z previous run



You can compare them at this model page: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[cycloneye]

[USTropics]

Here is an image of 92L projected landfall using NOAA's WAVEWATCH III model (Wind data is provided from the GDAS data assimilation system for the GFS. It has a 25km resolution regionally and 100km globally).

[ROCK]

6Z NAVGEM shifted to Brownsville

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[ROCK]

6Z NAM...WGOM

http://magpara.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

6Z GFS...actually shifted west some also

[USTropics]

Following the relative vorticity at 850mb, the 06z GFS still brings 92L into the NO/LA area and is just a smidgen to the left of the 0z run.

[Dean4Storms]

Big shift north toward upper Gulf Coast with most of the Tropical Models at 12z.

http://derecho.math.uwm.edu/models/al922013.png

[USTropics]

The NHC typically likes to stay close to the TVCN model (which is a consensus model).

[Tireman4]

For the sake of avoiding undue stress, I realllllly hope that these models showing a south Texas landfall don't pan out. An evacuation situation would involve my wife taking our cats with our only functioning car, and me being holed up in the WFO sans transportation.

Though it WOULD shake up the summer doldrums, and my renter's insurance might pan out nicely in a worst case scenario. :p

And remember, you hate Texas in August. I agree with you heat..and this...uggh...it can stay away...

[ROCK]

actually it is a shift towards LA now as compared to FL panhandle....and its probably not done shifting...

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

all depends on trough deepness and how strong the storm can get as it starts to feel the pull. I would think stronger/more organized system will be more straight north, while a weaker system will head more westerly.

[sleepysilverdoor]

For the sake of avoiding undue stress, I realllllly hope that these models showing a south Texas landfall don't pan out. An evacuation situation would involve my wife taking our cats with our only functioning car, and me being holed up in the WFO sans transportation.

Though it WOULD shake up the summer doldrums, and my renter's insurance might pan out nicely in a worst case scenario. :p

And remember, you hate Texas in August. I agree with you heat..and this...uggh...it can stay away...

The south texas coast in August only really has two weather patterns: stupidly hot and tropical cyclone. Maybe I just need a new state, some place with more temperate summers. Maybe I'll just run off to Washington state and enjoy the forests.

[N2Storms]

actually it is a shift towards LA now as compared to FL panhandle....and its probably not done shifting...

Like I said yesterday, the FL Panhandle, S. AL and MS coasts are going to get a lot of rain regardless of whether or not a TC heads in this direction. This is JMHO but I think 92L is going to be much more of a rain threat than a wind threat so while it could potentially exacerbate flooding up here in our neck of the woods if it came in our direction, it looks as though we are going to be dealing with the heavy rainfall Thurs, Fri and Sat. A TC would just add insult to injury...