ATL: INVEST 92L - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

Yes I agree Dean. Could see some significant changes to projected track by the models if development is occuring farther east and if the system becomes stronger.

It is organizing rather steadily this morning.

[Dean4Storms]

Sure do NDG and that Vort is sitting in a nearly perfect spot in regards to the Anticyclone.
I see a slow drift to the NW.

[Dean4Storms]

Just can't see a deepening TC east of the Yucatan and moving so slow it missing the weakness developing in the Gulf. Everyone along the Gulf Coast needs to monitor this though.

[northjaxpro]

Yes, the poleward motion is already beginning as the system is moving more north of west now. System is gaining latitude.

[northjaxpro]

What time is Recon scheduled to go in?

[RL3AO]

What time is Recon scheduled to go in?

Tomorrow afternoon.

[RL3AO]

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD BE
FORMING BETWEEN THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS AND THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS WHERE THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BECOME CONCENTRATED DURING THE
PAST SEVERAL HOURS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AS
IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH TOWARD THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. INTERESTS IN THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
AND THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS
DISTURBANCE.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

Zoomed in: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=5

NOAA Floater: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[northjaxpro]

Too bad Recon is not going in today. 92L is really organizing fairly well this morning.

[ronjon]

Yeah northjax I mentioned that last night. Well another day and more confusion on track - Euro and UKMET seem to have have shifted northward while the CMC into S Tex and GFS a lttle westward into NO. I suppose we'll need to see just where the LLC forms to know with more certainty where future Erin might go. It is definitely organizing this am and NHC might regret cancelling that RECON for today.

[Dean4Storms]

If this is forming an LLC at the surface today then the models are really going to be somewhat susceptible to errors until maybe the 18z or 00z runs.

[ronjon]

If the LLC is forming under the center of the heaviest convection (a big if w/o RECON), it would be centered near 17N-82W. If we assume a due NW heading from there, the system would head to the NE tip of the Yuc.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/92L/flash-vis-long.html

[Blown Away]

06z...Shear levels increasing over time

[GCANE]

3 decent looking overshooting tops.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... 0-lalo.jpg



TRMM showing possibly 4 tiny hot towers

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... W.63pc.jpg

[NDG]

Yeah northjax I mentioned that last night. Well another day and more confusion on track - Euro and UKMET seem to have have shifted northward while the CMC into S Tex and GFS a lttle westward into NO. I suppose we'll need to see just where the LLC forms to know with more certainty where future Erin might go. It is definitely organizing this am and NHC might regret cancelling that RECON for today.

I am throwing last night's CMC out the window, now the Euro agrees with the GFS with one heck of a weakness setting up across the MS river valley Friday into the weekend, no matter what comes out of 92L it has no other option but to go northward towards the central gulf coast.

[Dean4Storms]

The short temporary change in wind direction at this buoy this morning....

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/maps/West_Caribbean.shtml

[Gustywind]

First appareance on SSD...

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
14/1145 UTC 17.6N 82.6W TOO WEAK 92L

[Dean4Storms]

That Shear from SHIPS is running off the westward motion of the BAMM Blown Away. It looks to be moving NW from at least satellite loops.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track.

AL, 92, 2013081412, , BEST, 0, 171N, 828W, 25, 1009, DB

[Alyono]

is the NHC site down? I cannot reach any NOAA sites