WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

It's pulling a Cimaron(2006) type of intensification right now... I hope it doesn't pull a PATSY(1970) like track since many are still celebrating the victory in FIBA ASIA...
my personal forecast - landfall near Casiguran, Aurora



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[cebuboy]

I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png

It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png

It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.

I'm also in Cebu. Do you remember Utor [Seniang] last 2006?

[euro6208]

the eye is becoming more defined each passing hour...Raw T approaching 7.0!


UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.4
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 AUG 2013 Time : 033000 UTC
Lat : 14:53:02 N Lon : 125:08:39 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 973.7mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -25.1C Cloud Region Temp : -78.8C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 107km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 28.8 degrees

[dexterlabio]

I think if ever the track goes south, the landfall will still be in Aurora, but near Dingalan Bay. And even if the track is well north of Manila, we can still feel its effects. Loleng (Babs) in 1998 which made landfall in Aurora but I remember the weather in Manila then was stormy...same with Pedring (Nesat) 2 years ago, it made landfall in Isabela-Aurora border but Manila also took a beating. We should all be prepared.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.

This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.

[cebuboy]

I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png

It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.

I'm also in Cebu. Do you remember Utor [Seniang] last 2006?

Great..Yes I remember that one..

[Meow]

Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.

This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.

Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.

This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.

Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.

And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.

[Meow]

And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.

It had not formed an upper-level eye at 00Z, so agencies could not give higher intensity, especially JMA.

[mrbagyo]

I observed it's expanding quickly; even its rainbands reach Cebu city I checked on the latest Satellite data. Damn, a probably rapid intensification might happen anytime now. It can become Category 5. Remember the 1995 Typhoon Angela?, path is very similar:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Angela_1995_track.png

It tracks upwards for some time but goes straight to Manila. This is the worst that can happen. I hope we are prepared on this.

I experienced that one... but all I can remember is darkness and the howling winds... I was 3 years old back then.

I think if ever the track goes south, the landfall will still be in Aurora, but near Dingalan Bay. And even if the track is well north of Manila, we can still feel its effects. Loleng (Babs) in 1998 which made landfall in Aurora but I remember the weather in Manila then was stormy...same with Pedring (Nesat) 2 years ago, it made landfall in Isabela-Aurora border but Manila also took a beating. We should all be prepared.

we might feel some effects of UTOR but I don't think it will be as bad as Nesat. The south west monsoon aka "HABAGAT" is relatively weak right now...

[euro6208]

Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.

This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.

Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.

And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.

indeed...Parma's eye seems smaller though...hard to believe this only peaked at 135 knots when it looks smiliar to Wilma...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strong winds, pressure of 1000 hPa reported in Cebu: http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/fin ... 00.1.98645

[vrif]

ASCAT pass from 0130Z

[mrbagyo]

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awfully awesome... and still intensifying

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Colored (2-km) Imagery of Utor:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This storm is really like LABUYO! So spicy and intense!

[Alyono]

Utor really getting intense. Organizing really fast and its eye is clearing up, could be about 125-135 kts.

This is one of the most impressive Category 3's out there.

Parma in 2009 looked like that, and it was a super typhoon.

And that is why i'm wondering why Utor wasn't upgraded into a Category 4. This season, both JMA and JTWC are more conservative.

Because there was NO data indicating that intensity. I just did an analysis of the storm and also came up with 100 KT

[vrif]

GFS track is looking more and more confident.

[RL3AO]

Not a Dvorak expert, but eye temp doesn't support more than 110 kts IMO.