Thoughts on 2013 Atlantic Hurricane Season

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I'm already starting to feel pessimistic about the season. That weather channel vid is only trying to make us happy. IF WE DON'T GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF STORMS THIS MONTH THEN I KNOW IT'LL BE A BUST. Ugh. It's looking like 2009 now -_-

[Ptarmigan]

Back-loaded seasons often seem to produce monsters as well, since they allow the oceans to heat up more without early activity to come into play.

Two examples of this were 1998-99, both of which went all the way until the last third of August with only a single storm, yet 1998 produced Mitch in October and 1999 nearly Cat 5 Lenny in November.

I noticed those kind of seasons are the deadliest.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I'm already starting to feel pessimistic about the season. That weather channel vid is only trying to make us happy. IF WE DON'T GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF STORMS THIS MONTH THEN I KNOW IT'LL BE A BUST. Ugh. It's looking like 2009 now -_-

It's not just about the numbers and. Just look at 1999. There were only 3 August storms all of them forming towards the end of the month. All 8 hurricanes of that season formed between then and nov 30, with all of them impacting land and some in a devastating manner.

I think this is a slow season but not like 2009 where there was an el nino. We just have to wait.

[ninel conde]

I'm already starting to feel pessimistic about the season. That weather channel vid is only trying to make us happy. IF WE DON'T GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF STORMS THIS MONTH THEN I KNOW IT'LL BE A BUST. Ugh. It's looking like 2009 now -_-

It's not just about the numbers and. Just look at 1999. There were only 3 August storms all of them forming towards the end of the month. All 8 hurricanes of that season formed between then and nov 30, with all of them impacting land and some in a devastating manner.

I think this is a slow season but not like 2009 where there was an el nino. We just have to wait.

2009 is a good comparison. some experimental models are showing the MDR shut down thru the first week of sept. wxman57 is calling for a pattern change next week so maybe all this will reverse.

[ninel conde]

I'm already starting to feel pessimistic about the season. That weather channel vid is only trying to make us happy. IF WE DON'T GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF STORMS THIS MONTH THEN I KNOW IT'LL BE A BUST. Ugh. It's looking like 2009 now -_-

It's not just about the numbers and. Just look at 1999. There were only 3 August storms all of them forming towards the end of the month. All 8 hurricanes of that season formed between then and nov 30, with all of them impacting land and some in a devastating manner.

I think this is a slow season but not like 2009 where there was an el nino. We just have to wait.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /index.php

personally i dont see this similar to 1999. 5 major hurricanes. if this is to be similar to 1999 the models should be latching onto some strong developments very soon.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/ro ... lmod30.png

this indicates as of sept 7 there is a below normal chance of anything in the MDR.

[southerngale]

[thetruesms]

Winner. Lock this thread, we're done here. Everyone go home, there's nothing that can top it.

[WeatherEmperor]

I know how you feel. Some people just dont know how to be patient. I suspect most of this has to do with them not being here on Storm2k long enough or havent tracked hurricanes long enough to know that many seasons start late and end with a bang. The preseason forecasts of high activity and this activity not showing itself (yet) adds to their frustration and the season cancel mentality.

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[hurricaneCW]

I'm already starting to feel pessimistic about the season. That weather channel vid is only trying to make us happy. IF WE DON'T GET A GOOD AMOUNT OF STORMS THIS MONTH THEN I KNOW IT'LL BE A BUST. Ugh. It's looking like 2009 now -_-

It's not just about the numbers and. Just look at 1999. There were only 3 August storms all of them forming towards the end of the month. All 8 hurricanes of that season formed between then and nov 30, with all of them impacting land and some in a devastating manner.

I think this is a slow season but not like 2009 where there was an el nino. We just have to wait.

2009 is a good comparison. some experimental models are showing the MDR shut down thru the first week of sept. wxman57 is calling for a pattern change next week so maybe all this will reverse.

You can't compare this year to an El Niño year of 2009, this year if anything resembles a cold neutral state. The worst storms are ones that form close to us so a quiet MDR doesn't mean we're safe by any means, it just means less Cape Verde storms, which mostly recurve out to sea anyway.

[CrazyC83]

Are the lack of waves in the tropical Atlantic heating the ocean up? That could mean trouble down the road...

BTW, in 2009, we had plenty of waves, just they were never developing (or even threatening to develop) due to excessive wind shear. Shear is not the problem right now.

[CrazyC83]

Another season this brings me back to is 2004:

* The first named storm - Alex - had subtropical origins.
* Bonnie had the same problem as Chantal and Dorian, while Charley found a sweet spot far enough west, despite rip-roaring. Earl had the same problems.
* Danielle had a brief RI period (think Fred 2009), but also removed a lot of dry air - setting up Frances and Ivan. But that took until late August.

[cycloneye]

Are the lack of waves in the tropical Atlantic heating the ocean up? That could mean trouble down the road...

BTW, in 2009, we had plenty of waves, just they were never developing (or even threatening to develop) due to excessive wind shear. Shear is not the problem right now.

Yes,as you said earlier,late seasons may turn as a wild ride as warm waters have been undisturbed.

[CrazyC83]

Also I believe the first big wave to come out will act as the pattern-changer. It won't develop too much - perhaps a TD or weak TS (unless it manages a quick RI spurt) but will clear out the dry air for the next ones.

[CrazyC83]

Also 2010 - it took until the last week of August for activity to get a toehold, other than Alex which was a sort of fluke storm.

[weatherwindow]

Are the lack of waves in the tropical Atlantic heating the ocean up? That could mean trouble down the road...

BTW, in 2009, we had plenty of waves, just they were never developing (or even threatening to develop) due to excessive wind shear. Shear is not the problem right now.

Good afternoon, Crazy...Luis noted CV development late in the 12Z GFS run...I ran it on MSLP anomaly...note the TC at about 45 deg W..then note the weak ridging north and west of the Greater Antilles to the ohio valley(1016mb isobar to about 90W) and no evident troffing upstream west of the Rockies, however it is a fairly progressive pattern...obviously, 384hrs is not forecast materiel but certainly an interesting situation even the displaced Bermuda high(relatively well east of climo)...Grtz from KW, Rich

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... opics.html

[Zanthe]

NHC put out an article talking about how this season is on track to be above average.
http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... pdate.html

So, you know. Season bust.

[Hammy]

While the model trends can cause impatience with the season for some, I found another example of a late start to August activity, that being 1966: Faith was the only August storm, and did not form until Aug 21, and turned out to be one of the longest tracking storms (in aerial coverage) out there.

[ninel conde]

it would be nice to see that huge upper low near 30n 60w dissipate to help get things going.

[Ntxw]

In late July/early August I posted that I would like to see vertical instability increase through August to believe we will see bigger storms vs the weaker slower to develop systems of the past few seasons. Well it's almost mid August and MDR instability is still below normal. Subtropical Atlantic is below normal as well along with the Caribbean falling below normal lately. The gulf and EC are the two areas near or above normal. IF this doesn't change by the end of this month I would consider revising down the number of majors and potential hurricanes from my guess this season. The subtropical Atlantic is also important in the numbers game. I am in the camp this is a late blooming season, but the stats are pretty glaring and hard to argue at this point.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/project ... _00-24.asp

[hurricanetrack]

I find it odd that NO ONE in the forecasting of numbers community can foresee the instability issues and yet it has been there for the past several seasons. It also rarely seems to be addressed. I also find it amusing that one particular person, who we all know, was practically SCREAMING about his "nightmare" back in March based on a change in the 400mb temps etc. Just wondering how all of this can be accounted for? Huge signs go missed. Others seem to make up signs that aren't there. What gives?