WPAC: UTOR - Post-Tropical

[RL3AO]

90 kts in 36 hours... Guess its gonna pull a Gil and just randomly fall part.

More likely to be 140 than 90 at that time IMO.

[vrif]

00Z GFS run is again showing northward motion after entering the SCS and making land fall slightly east of HK. CMC still has STS Utor going straight west and making landfall in western Guangdong.

edit: Included GFS past 4 cycle track.

[senorpepr]

Finally JMA is with the program. Rarely you see JMA (using 10-min avg) report the initial intensity of a well-developed tropical cyclone higher than JTWC (using 1-min avg)... but that's the case now... and may still be a little low. Although I still have no clue why JMA is bringing the cyclone north of Aparri.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pit6EYMSQmM[/youtube]

[vrif]

The pinhole is gone now.

[vrif]

Finally JMA is with the program. Rarely you see JMA (using 10-min avg) report the initial intensity of a well-developed tropical cyclone higher than JTWC (using 1-min avg)... but that's the case now... and may still be a little low. Although I still have no clue why JMA is bringing the cyclone north of Aparri.

The latest 0Z JMA run has Utor's track slightly more south and crossing Luzon. There is a chance JMA may move the track south in the next update, if they do indeed follow their own guidance model.

[euro6208]

UTOR likely peaked at 115 knots category 4 earlier with the formation of an pinhole eye (I'm going on the low side)...he has weakened now to 100 knots...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

[Alyono]

UTOR likely peaked at 115 knots category 4 earlier with the formation of an pinhole eye (I'm going on the low side)...he has weakened now to 100 knots...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

Lets stop with the hyperbole.

This in no way was 115 KT earlier. In no way is it weakening now. We still have a rapid intensfiying typhoon

[Meow]

Finally JMA is with the program. Rarely you see JMA (using 10-min avg) report the initial intensity of a well-developed tropical cyclone higher than JTWC (using 1-min avg)... but that's the case now... and may still be a little low. Although I still have no clue why JMA is bringing the cyclone north of Aparri.

Since 2011, JMA often reports higher intensity for TS and STS. This is logically, as JMA’s Dvorak technique provides.

When Utor becomes a TY, JMA should begin reporting lower intensity, for the same reason.

[mrbagyo]

UTOR likely peaked at 115 knots category 4 earlier with the formation of an pinhole eye (I'm going on the low side)...he has weakened now to 100 knots...




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the JTWC and JMA products.

Lets stop with the hyperbole.

This in no way was 115 KT earlier. In no way is it weakening now. We still have a rapid intensfiying typhoon

I agree with Alyono...
but that 115 knots is not far fetch if UTOR keeps on intensifying.



let's check the rainfall potential of Utor...
quite heavy but not as much as KAI-TAK of 2012


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[vrif]

Upgraded to TY



WTPQ20 RJTD 100600
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 1311 UTOR (1311) UPGRADED FROM STS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 100600UTC 13.9N 129.2E GOOD
MOVE W 12KT
PRES 965HPA
MXWD 070KT
GUST 100KT
50KT 50NM
30KT 120NM
FORECAST
24HF 110600UTC 15.6N 125.6E 70NM 70%
MOVE WNW 10KT
PRES 945HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT
48HF 120600UTC 18.0N 122.5E 110NM 70%
MOVE NW 10KT
PRES 940HPA
MXWD 085KT
GUST 120KT
72HF 130600UTC 20.2N 118.3E 210NM 70%
MOVE WNW 11KT
PRES 930HPA
MXWD 090KT
GUST 130KT =

[dexterlabio]

Officially this season's 2nd typhoon. I wonder what JTWC will do next, their latest satfix still has DT 2.5

[vrif]

This image says it all.

[Alyono]

Officially this season's 2nd typhoon. I wonder what JTWC will do next, their latest satfix still has DT 2.5

They're actually at 3.5

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 113fix.txt

However, a 3.5 defies logic and JT really needs to start using the fixes from SSD as well. I dont even know why SSD bothers with WPAC fixes since JT never uses them

This is a clear 4.5 or a 5.0

[mrbagyo]

UTOR is still moving westward and the eye is about to reappear again...


I think it's Rapidly intensifying now...
50 knot wind barbs now occupying half of the storm's inner core

[RobWESTPACWX]

In response to this being a Typhoon now I made up a new video update. Plus my thoughts on the track. My thoughts that is nothing official.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCERMuKFiQs[/youtube]

[RobWESTPACWX]

In response to this being a Typhoon now I made up a new video update. Plus my thoughts on the track. My thoughts that is nothing official.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XCERMuKFiQs[/youtube]

[Meow]

However, a 3.5 defies logic and JT really needs to start using the fixes from SSD as well. I dont even know why SSD bothers with WPAC fixes since JT never uses them

Sometimes, JTWC uses 3 fixes, PGTW, KNES and RJTD. PGTW is JTWC itself, and KNES is SSD.

What is RJTD? Japan Meteorological Agency.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Utor rapidly gaining in size! This probably could reach low-end Category 4 before landfall. 90 knots is to conservative!

[dexterlabio]

They're actually at 3.5

http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/R ... 113fix.txt

However, a 3.5 defies logic and JT really needs to start using the fixes from SSD as well. I dont even know why SSD bothers with WPAC fixes since JT never uses them

This is a clear 4.5 or a 5.0

My bad, was going to type 3.5. Still no update from the JTWC. It'd be a huge difference if JTWC keeps it at around 60-65kts given that DT number, while JMA is at 70kts, plus the fact that JMA uses 10-min average.

[dexterlabio]

eye is peeking again.