Dr Lexion Avila on WPB News 530

[bosag]

He was on by phone, was very vague about path beyond 5 days, and Dean Tendrich really tried to get something out of him

Barb in Jupiter

[Anonymous]

How intresting. So what did he say?

[bosag]

Avila basically said that there's supposed to be a ridge forming early next week, but really would not give hard answer. When Dean Tendrich asked about people getting prepared, Avila said that we should have our preparations in order, like we should have in the beginning of the season. Absolutely no details whatsoever .

Barb in Jupiter

[sfwx]

He said NOTHING. He was very, very elusive and wouldn't even hint a little about a path. He basically said to monitor the situation and that you should already be prepared with your hurricane supplies(as of June 1st) He was very tight lipped, but can you blame him?

Eric

[jfaul]

Avila basically said that there's supposed to be a ridge forming early next week, but really would not give hard answer. When Dean Tendrich asked about people getting prepared, Avila said that we should have our preparations in order, like we should have in the beginning of the season. Absolutely no details whatsoever .

Barb in Jupiter

glad to hear he acknowledged the ridge..ridge means no fish which means about sunday things will get real tense in the SE USA. Him acknowledging the ridge is alot more than you would get out of a local met.

[wxman57]

The NHC has to be VERY careful about what is said about any possible landfall. If Avila had said a Florida landfall is likely, it would have started a state-wide panic. They won't mention it until it's a certainty.

Fortunately, that is good for our busisenss. I have no problem calling our customers today and discussing a possible FL impact. The NHC has a tough job, pulled in all directions. I don't envy them.

[Aquawind]

Wow that is pretty cool getting the Lexion on live TV. Tight lipped and elusive sounds like the logical thing to do with Isabel so far out from landfall in the US. I agree with jfaul..kinda impressed he even mentioned the ridge.

[Dean4Storms]

Exactly, anyone in an official capacity would be very careless to speculate at this point and it's all speculation that far out in time. The NHC never actually says it's headed in any particular direction beyond 5 days and even then they don't really recommend action until a Hurricane Watch is issued.

[ameriwx2003]

Agreed the media is going to be looking for the slightest hint from the TPC about a possible US landfall possiblity and the TPC has to be very carefull. While it does look a US landfall and possibly Florida is a good chance now, alot can happen. Following the Models for a storm that is 7+ days out is like following a golfshot. A small error is hardly noticeable early in its path but as it goes further out the error becomes very distinct:):):) Though Perry like you said the trend is your friend and it sure is starting to look interesting

[GulfBreezer]

Speculation can be a very dangerous thing with a storm of her magnitude!! Especially for Andrew Survivors!! That memory is still very fresh in their minds!!

[Scott_inVA]

He said NOTHING. He was very, very elusive and wouldn't even hint a little about a path. He basically said to monitor the situation and that you should already be prepared with your hurricane supplies(as of June 1st) He was very tight lipped, but can you blame him?

Eric

TPC and HRD specialists rarely do media interviews (in fact most detest the media...probably with due cause :? ). As Nelson said in another reply, if he even hints at a FL landfall, the plywood stampede is on.

I've called NWS privately after they do a segment on our News station and get a different story b/c they know it stays off air. SPC will be very candid if they know you and know it won't go on the air. But TPC, that's a tough place to deal with the media.

Avila isn't big on interviews and regardless of on-air pushing, must be vague and non committal. They don't know where Izzy is going so they can't speculate. That's not science which is all one should get from them.

Scott

[ColdFront77]

Avila basically said that there's supposed to be a ridge forming early next week, but really would not give hard answer. When Dean Tendrich asked about people getting prepared, Avila said that we should have our preparations in order, like we should have in the beginning of the season. Absolutely no details whatsoever .

Barb in Jupiter

glad to hear he acknowledged the ridge..ridge means no fish which means about sunday things will get real tense in the SE USA. Him acknowledging the ridge is alot more than you would get out of a local met.

The local meteorologists here in the Orlando viewing area have been mentioning and showing the ridge in the Atlantic. Saw it on one specifically at 6:15 PM-ish Eastern.

[KeyLargoDave]

I disagree with what sounds like uninformed "conventional wisdom" -- that TPC forecasters don't like the media and are adverse to discussing forecasts. As a reporter, I've met several of these guys, like Bob Sheets, Jerry Jerrel, Mayfield, Franklin (at NOAA HRC) and they have a strong respect for and appreciation of the media...
But they also KNOW a 7-day track forecast is a GUESS, better than the rest of us.

I think a skillful interviewer could get more detail by focusing on what MIGHT affect the storm, not just "tell me where will it go." This can give knowledgeable weather watchers things to listen for.
With Andrew, we had all of 21 hours from the hurricane warning until it hit. I went canoeing on the Loxahatchee river and was dining in Jupiter on Saturday night, barely paying attention to the fact that a system even existed. Sunday at noon we found out we were supposed to evacuate. You talk about panic? Saying today that South Florida should pay attention is not going to cause a panic like that.

No offense to anyone, I just felt I should repond to about what seemed like bashing of an "uncooperative" TPC forecaster.