11 PM TROPICAL UPDATE

[WXBUFFJIM]

Tropical update time as of 11 PM EDT this Tuesday evening September 9th, 2003. Hurricane Isabel remains a dangerous category 4 hurricane. At 11 PM EDT, the center of dangerous hurricane Isabel was located near latitude 20.6 north, longitude 48.8 west or about 875 miles east northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Movement is west northwest at 14 mph. This general motion is expected to continue with a turn to the west overnight and through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 135 mph with higher gusts. Fluctuations in strength are common in majoe hurricanes and Isabel will likely fluctuate in intensity over the next few days. The overall intensity forecast remains the same through the next 5 days. Minimum central pressure is 948 millibars or 27.99 inches.

The projected path keeps the center of Isabel north of Puerto Rico and north of the Leeward Islands. However 10-20 foot waves are likely over the northern facing shores of Puerto Rico abd the northern Lesser Antillies as well. That will mean dangerous rip currents, very high battering waves, and possibly some coastal flood potential as well. Also keep a close eye on the Bahamas, Florida, Gerogia, and South Carolina as Isabel closes in and continues moving west through the next 5-7 days. We could see a major hurricane threat in these areas, I'll say that right now. Definitely worth monitoring this situation carefully. High pressure ridging in north of the hurricane favors the west track and that means the United States will have a likely threat from major hurricane Isabel about one week from today. Stay tuned.

Meanwhile dangerous rip currents, high waves, and minor coastal flooding have occurred along the VA/NC coast this evening and more can be expected over the next day or so courtesy of what's left of Henri off the coast and strong high pressure building in from the north. In between, the tight pressure gradient setup means a prolonged northeast wind flow. The follwing is the 11 PM EDT buoy reports from the mid atlantic coast and coastal zones. All wind speeds are in knots and all temperatures are for the water.

Chesapeake Light, VA: NNE 30 kts, gusts to 33 kts, waves 11 feet.
The buoy 64 NM est of Virginia Beach: Ne 25 kts, gusts to 31 kts, 74 degrees
Diamond Shoals red buoy: NNE 21 kts, gusts to 27 kts, 71 degrees, waves 11 feet.
The buoy 26 nm southeast of Cape May, NJ, NNE 23 kts, gusts to 29 kts, 72 degrees, seas 10 feet.

The first high tide for Virginia Beach, VA will be at 8:21 AM Wednesday morning with a expected height of 6.3 feet. The second high tide wil be at 8:40 PM EDT with a height of 6.2 feet. The height needed for minor coastal flooding is 6 feet. The combination of prolonged northeast wind, and astronomial high tides increases the threat for high waves, dangerous rip currents, and minor coastal flooding at times of high tides. The Virginia/North Carolina coast is especially threatened by this!!!!

TD#14 is now over the Cape Verde Islands with 30 mph maximum sustained winds. It remains disorganized and no changes in strength is expected for the next few days with TD14. However heavy rains are likely in the Cape Verde Islands over the next 12-24 hours and all interests in the Cape Verde Islands should still monitor this one carefully.

Also Maemi in the west pac is a supertyphoon with winds sustained at 150 knots, gusting to 180 knots. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/03_ ... _full.html for the info on satellite. Just amazing!!!

Jim

[CocoaBill]

"High pressure ridging in north of the hurricane favors the west track and that means the United States will have a likely threat from major hurricane Isabel about one week from today. Stay tuned. "


This can not be understated..........