ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

This is where I think there could be an LLC at or forming.

http://img812.imageshack.us/img812/3866/xs2e.jpg

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First of all there is no LLC and secondly the weak surface circulation/trough is much further north than your red dot, it appears to be between SE FL and Grand Bahama Island as Bimini Island has being reporting light westerly winds.
Your red dot appears to be dying mid level circulation.

[Blown Away]

[blp]

I see a small vort/ spin off of Ft. Pierce with convection trailing behind it trying to catch up. Hard to see with nighttime imagery though. Morning visible should clarify. Could be mid level.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

[tolakram]

MIMIC-TPW: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Looks like the primary area of circulation, such that it is, is just NW of the Bahamas.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 2 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN IS
LOCATED BETWEEN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE FLORIDA EAST
COAST. SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS NOT
BECOME ANY BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT...BUT CONDITIONS WILL STILL
BE FAVORABLE FOR SLIGHT DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS TO
PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF
SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA TODAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED
WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE
AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE HURRICANE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY HAS
BEEN CANCELLED.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[NDG]

I see a small vort/ spin off of Ft. Pierce with convection trailing behind it trying to catch up. Hard to see with nighttime imagery though. Morning visible should clarify. Could be mid level.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/vis_lalo-animated.gif

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/91L/imagery/rb-animated.gif

It looks more like a little eddy rotating westward towards the coast, clearly seen on radar.
Broader low circulation appears to be offshore of West Palm Beach/Boca Raton area.

[wxman57]

I see some evidence of a weak surface trof east of southern FL but pressures have risen along the coast and across the western Bahamas in the past 4 hrs. No development.

Florida Keys should be fine, Wendy. This system is moving the other way.

[ninel conde]

It looks weak and elongated area of low pressure this morning.

good observation. its my belief that to get development in the sw atlantic you need a strong high over new england/se canada so the energy in the sw atlantic doesnt get elongated and stretched NE. we have the opposite pattern now. i still think it may look pretty good once it gets moving NE with the shear.

[jhpigott]

I see some evidence of a weak surface trof east of southern FL but pressures have risen along the coast and across the western Bahamas in the past 4 hrs. No development.

Florida Keys should be fine, Wendy. This system is moving the other way.

Do you think coastal SE FL sees any rain from this today or will subsidence kill any chance of that?

[Frank2]

The local forecast is for a SW-W wind due to the weak low, and that is forecast to bring the convergence precip from SW Florida across the state later in the afternoon...

[Aric Dunn]

definately appears to.be weak surface circ though elongated atm. has a chance to develop..

[hurrtracker79]

definately appears to.be weak surface circ though elongated atm. has a chance to develop..

What are you basing this information off of. I'm not seeing anything close to a surface circulation.

[Aric Dunn]

definately appears to.be weak surface circ though elongated atm. has a chance to develop..

What are you basing this information off of. I'm not seeing anything close to a surface circulation.

sat radar and surface ibs pointing towards a weak low off vero beach area though its elongated north to south

[tolakram]

Circulation clearly visible NW of convection now.

Live visible: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=4

[Airboy]

definately appears to.be weak surface circ though elongated atm. has a chance to develop..

What are you basing this information off of. I'm not seeing anything close to a surface circulation.

sat radar and surface ibs pointing towards a weak low off vero beach area though its elongated north to south

Yes, when looking at visible sat it looks like some kind of rotation there.

[tolakram]

saved Radar loop

[NDG]

12z Best track location was placed on the little eddy very well seen east of Vero Beach/Ft Pierce, but most of the convection with it displaced to the south.
SHIPS show increasing shear as it tracks N & E with time, so either today or never, lol.

[Aric Dunn]

its quite clear http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/wfo/m ... h-rgb.html

[Aric Dunn]

though it appears to be moving wnw to nw which would bring it ashore todsy and that would put a stop to any development

[tolakram]

Shear already looks to be 15kts or better.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=