ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[fci]

Hey Rock; if this redevelops and moves into the GOM do I have to go into hiding?

nah, I have known you long enough to let you slide.... but next time leave a way out!!

I was, and still am; very confident that this is not a GOM'er; at least not as a storm.
But thanks for the vote of confidence!!!

[StormTracker]

I can already see 3 days from now the questions being asked if something develops from the remnants or the area of the remnants: "is this still Dorian", "will it be renamed Dorian", "is this now Erin",etc...To be honest, Dorian didn't sound like a name for a big, bad storm! For some reason Erin does! I have to go back and check the thread of storms that we think are going to be the dangerous ones!

See, I knew this was going to happen! I just knew Dorian had 1 more run left in him!

[jonj2040]

upper divergence has decreased this would explain the current lack in popping convection; right?


The lower convergence which was close to nonexistent is also in the negatives in the general area, does this mean that the is divergence at the lower levels?

[MGC]

Does look like a circulation is starting to take shape west of Andros Island and move slowly west based on Miami radar. Not sure if it is on the surface though....MGC

[sunnyday]

Local S Fl met just said not much is going to come of this, that the trough will take it away.

[NDG]

A potential LLC located near NW of Andros Islands.

I wouldn't say an LLC but definitely a vorticity there, also seen in visible sat loop, let's see if it can hold during the night.

[Dean4Storms]

Where have I seen this replay before?

[funster]

:lol: Where have I seen this replay before?

lol - Dorian is an expert on failed comebacks.

[Sanibel]

Very weak and dry but this area of the basin combined with recurve, Gulf Stream, time of year, and persistence has surprised before.

[HurricaneDREW92]

:lol: Where have I seen this replay before?

lol - Dorian is an expert on failed comebacks.

True, but we're at DMIN so what did you expect?

[Senobia]

12z GFs brings the 850 mb vorticity into Ft Laud.

Yeah, perhaps some rain for the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow. GFS then takes it north then NE and dissipates it.

That looks to be where it's headed on satellite as well.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Any guesses for the 8pm TWO, anyone? I'm guessing 30%

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think they'll mantain 20% and lower the chances tomorrow.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Any guesses for the 8pm TWO, anyone? I'm guessing 30%

20% still, if not 10% is my amateur guess. Thunderstorms have diminished and development is unlikely.

[tropicwatch]

I'm not sure if the front will pick 91 up. The storms just off of Jacksonville appear to be moving east and little northward with the front. The showers around Gainesville appear to be moving south indicating detachment from the front.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

[Hammy]

Tonight is probably Dorian's last chance of redevelopment, given that there appears to be very little shear this time, if it can generate a good ball of convection tonight and then spin up underneath of it. If not, that's probably the final chapter on it.

[Evil Jeremy]

I don't see what the fuss is about. Dorian died days ago. He's not coming back.

[Javlin]

I'm not sure if the front will pick 91 up. The storms just off of Jacksonville appear to be moving east and little northward with the front. The showers around Gainesville appear to be moving south indicating detachment from the front.

http://www.wjhg.com/weather/interactiveradar

That was my thought in the sense that 91L is to shallow to feel the front and the front does appear to be seperating over the Carolinas.Also the front part of the UL in Canada is at 75' while 91L is coming up on 80'.But I still do not see awhole lot of development with this ATTM .

[wxman57]

Thunderstorms are diminishing. I think NHC will drop development chances on the next outlook.

[cycloneye]

Up to 30%

DISORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE...THE REMNANTS OF DORIAN...LOCATED BETWEEN SOUTH FLORIDA
AND THE BAHAMAS. SURFACE PRESSURES ARE FALLING...AND SOME
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THIS DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO
MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST...BRINGING CLOUDINESS...
SHOWERS...AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE COASTAL WATERS OF SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...THE DISTURBANCE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TOWARD
THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND BECOME ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL TROUGH
OFFSHORE OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM
CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.