ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3301 Postby cycloneye » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:41 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Windsurfer_NYC wrote:
cycloneye wrote:If anyone wants to comment to NHC about this not being Dorian you can contact them.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/contact.shtml


Does NHC have their criteria posted anywhere for renaming/reusing regenerated storm names?


There must be some identifiable and trackable surface feature. They stretched that rule a bit when they renamed Ivan as Ivan once it emerged into the Atlantic. They said they could track part of the low-level vorticity. But I don't think even that is possible with Dorian.


From NHC facebook page they answered.

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center The NWS Directive states that "Within a basin, if the remnant of a tropical cyclone redevelops into a tropical cyclone, it is assigned its original number or name." This language is a little ambiguous about what happens when there is more than one remnant (if, for example, a low-level remnant and a mid-level remnant separate). However, in such a case, we follow the primary remnant, which would almost always be considered the lower-level feature.

The reason that 2005's TD Twelve was not renamed TD Ten was because the primary remnant - the low-level circulation - of TD Ten had moved on and was not involved in the genesis of TD Twelve. In the case of Dorian, on the other hand, we're still dealing with the same low-level vorticity feature.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3302 Postby ROCK » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:43 pm

so to recap...we "Bones" this feature twice now and twice its come back. What have we learned?

it aint over until its over!! :D
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#3303 Postby fci » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:44 pm

Hey Rock; if this redevelops and moves into the GOM do I have to go into hiding? :roll:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3304 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:44 pm

18z new model track guidance for 91L has ex Dorian skirting through the keys into the GOM. Sounds like game on.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3305 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:45 pm

TRMM Precip Radar, about 2 hrs 20 min ago, was showing two small hot towers east and SE of Andros.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc13/A ... W.62pc.jpg
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3306 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:47 pm

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3307 Postby HURAKAN » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:47 pm

ronjon wrote:18z new model track guidance for 91L has ex Dorian skirting through the keys into the GOM. Sounds like game on.


unlikely to go to the Gulf, look at the steering currents
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Re:

#3308 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:47 pm

Hurricane Alexis wrote:From the Miami AFD.

MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
WHICH BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (850 MB) ONSHORE THE EAST
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
KEEPING IT OFFSHORE OVER THE STRAITS.


offshore over the straits - isn't that the term between FL and Cuba?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3309 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:48 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Senobia wrote:
HurricaneDREW92 wrote:Cycloneye adds S2k Disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Obviously, I'm not a pro met, and my predictions should be taken with a grain of salt
HRS
12: 30kts
24: 45kts
48: 60kts
72: 65kts
96: 65kts
120:75kts

http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/2899/3c0.png



How likely is this scenario, anyone? I don't know which steering currents and such are in place. Maybe someone else does.


Pure fantasy. There is absolutely nothing to indicate such a track/intensity.

I disagree as respectfully as possible :D Models shifting this way but at the end of the day most of the time you pro mets are on the ball :wink:
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-THE ABOVE IS THE OPINION OF DREW ONLY

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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3310 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:50 pm

HURAKAN wrote:
ronjon wrote:18z new model track guidance for 91L has ex Dorian skirting through the keys into the GOM. Sounds like game on.


unlikely to go to the Gulf, look at the steering currents


I tend to agree with the globals showing otherwise but interesting that the BAM suite takes it west.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3311 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:50 pm

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#3312 Postby gatorcane » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:50 pm

Maybe something getting going at the surface just NW of Andros Island?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html
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#3313 Postby fci » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:53 pm

Looks like Miami NWS is buying the stays offshore of the east coast solution.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3314 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:53 pm

ROCK wrote:outflow boundaries vomiting up = not good for low level circulation....

The dry air killed this thing again, the nice weak surface circulation that was there 3 hours ago is now gone, lol.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3315 Postby Sanibel » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:53 pm

No clear center on Miami long-range Doppler. However something appears to be trying to pull together over Andros or nearby.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3316 Postby ronjon » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:53 pm

12z GFs brings the 850 mb vorticity into Ft Laud.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3317 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:54 pm

Let's see if we can follow Dorian's low-level vorticity using 00hr model analysis from last weekend. Looking at the progression below, I have to admit that there does appear to be a trackable bit of vorticity from Dorian that's now near Andros Island. However, I don't think it will develop, so we won't have too much to debate.

12Z 27th - Still quite visible:
Image

12Z 28th - Visible but fading:
Image

12Z 29th - Still identifiable:
Image

12Z 30th - Still a little vorticity there:
Image

12Z 31st - Still something there, but very stretched out:
Image

12Z 1st - Can still identify some vorticity in the Bahamas:
Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3318 Postby GCANE » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:54 pm

NDG wrote:



I don't see much.


Very pink
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3319 Postby HurricaneDREW92 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:55 pm

NDG wrote:
ROCK wrote:outflow boundaries vomiting up = not good for low level circulation....

The dry air killed this thing again, the nice weak surface circulation that was there 3 hours ago is now gone, lol.

I would expect a TD at 11am tomorrow, but once again, just an amateur :wink:
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Re: ATL: INVEST 91L - Dorian Remnants - Discussion

#3320 Postby wxman57 » Thu Aug 01, 2013 3:56 pm

ronjon wrote:12z GFs brings the 850 mb vorticity into Ft Laud.


Yeah, perhaps some rain for the southern FL Peninsula tomorrow. GFS then takes it north then NE and dissipates it.
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