ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Recon for Friday afternoon

Flight plan anticipates a northward movement?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A INVEST B. AFXXX 0404A DORAIN
C. 02/1530Z C. 03/0400Z
D. 27.0N 79.5W D. 28.5N 79.5W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2130Z E. 02/0530Z TO 03/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Yes,they dont see it going to GOM at this time.

[fci]

Looks like the area is smacking The Western Bahamas now:
SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

THE BAHAMAS DEPARTMENT OF METEOROLOGY HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FROM 2:20 PM EDT UNTIL 4:20 PM EDT, THURSDAY 1ST AUGUST 2013.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS, NEW PROVIDENCE, CAT ISLAND, NORTH ABACO AND GRAND BAHAMA AND EXUMA ALONG WITH THEIR ADJACENT WATERS AND CAYS.

AT 2:20 PM SATELLITE AND DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DEPICT LARGE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING ACROSS THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS.

SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE AT TIMES, CAUSING STRONG GUSTY WINDS, DANGEROUS LIGHTNING, HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH FLOODING IN LOW LYING OR FLOOD PRONE AREAS, POSSIBLE HAIL, AND WATERSPOUT OR TORNADIC ACTIVITY.

BOATERS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD REMAIN IN PORT OR SEEK SAFE HARBOUR IMMEDIATELY. RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREAS SHOULD STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS AS CONDITIONS WORSEN.

[GCANE]

Sat analysis is tagging the LLC farther north and west where I thought. I was putting it just south of Andros.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 011915.jpg

[northjaxpro]

Recon for Friday afternoon

Flight plan anticipates a northward movement?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A INVEST B. AFXXX 0404A DORAIN
C. 02/1530Z C. 03/0400Z
D. 27.0N 79.5W D. 28.5N 79.5W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2130Z E. 02/0530Z TO 03/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

Yes,they dont see it going to GOM at this time.

Good. I hope it plays out with the northward movement as we don't need this compounding to our already saturated conditions here. The trough should hopefully grab it in the short term.

[wxman57]

Paging Wxman 57,


You maybe needed back in the morgue. Something is happening. Thank you.

I still say this is most definitely NOT Dorian. Vorticity associated with Dorian dissipated days ago. This is a new feature related to the upper low.

[brunota2003]

This doesn't make sense. If it reforms, they'll rename it Dorian? Since when did that rule change? Last I read, in order for a storm to keep the same name, it has to maintain a closed low level circulation the entire time. The remnants have not had a closed LLC in several days...even though if a system forms, it may be from the remnants of Dorian, the name should change.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Cycloneye adds S2k Disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Obviously, I'm not a pro met, and my predictions should be taken with a grain of salt
HRS
12: 30kts
24: 45kts
48: 60kts
72: 65kts
96: 65kts
120:75kts



Looks pretty scary though:


Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Ha, thanks cycloneye

[wxman57]

This doesn't make sense. If it reforms, they'll rename it Dorian? Since when did that rule change? Last I read, in order for a storm to keep the same name, it has to maintain a closed low level circulation the entire time. The remnants have not had a closed LLC in several days...even though if a system forms, it may be from the remnants of Dorian, the name should change.

Right, this would not be named Dorian if it developed. All traces of Dorian are gone, with the possible exception that some of the moisture in the region was transported there by Dorian. No surface low or wave survived. It would be named "Erin". But development appears unlikely.

[fci]

Cool that you have put together the forecast and map!!
What lead you to forecast the westerly track across SFL into the GOM.
NWS shows it headed north and taken by a trough off to the NE.
Your reasoning, (and this is not the least bit critical as you have put up a good presentation); I would just like the thought process for your conclusion

[Senobia]

Are we really back on Dorian again?

[Hurricane Alexis]

From the Miami AFD.

MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE A DECENT HANDLE ON THE LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
ARE REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE BULK OF THE ASSOCIATED
WEATHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE GFS IS THE ONLY MODEL
WHICH BRINGS THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (850 MB) ONSHORE THE EAST
COAST LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY, WITH THE NAM AND ECMWF
KEEPING IT OFFSHORE OVER THE STRAITS.

[Ellsey]

This is like one of those action movies where you're so sure the hero died, but he magically reappears full of wounds and vigor. Dorian refuses to die completely! He must single-handedly save the Atlantic tropical season!

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is fine, the peak isn't for another couple of weeks.

It was a joke. Although honestly I wouldn't care if nothing else every happened if it means no one gets any storms.

To keep this on topic, I am very surprised this popped up again.

[GCANE]

Cycloneye adds S2k Disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Obviously, I'm not a pro met, and my predictions should be taken with a grain of salt
HRS
12: 30kts
24: 45kts
48: 60kts
72: 65kts
96: 65kts
120:75kts

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/821/3c0.png/http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/2899/3c0.png[/url]

Looks pretty scary though:
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6180/w7j.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Ha, thanks cycloneye

Track - about what I am thinking. Wind speeds - maybe higher.

[brunota2003]

This doesn't make sense. If it reforms, they'll rename it Dorian? Since when did that rule change? Last I read, in order for a storm to keep the same name, it has to maintain a closed low level circulation the entire time. The remnants have not had a closed LLC in several days...even though if a system forms, it may be from the remnants of Dorian, the name should change.

Right, this would not be named Dorian if it developed. All traces of Dorian are gone, with the possible exception that some of the moisture in the region was transported there by Dorian. No surface low or wave survived. It would be named "Erin". But development appears unlikely.

But the NHC posted on their FB page that if it does reform, it will be named Dorian...not Erin. Which is where my confusion lies. Kyle in 2002 and Ivan in 2004 maintained their LLC, thus their name. But this system did not (and recon has confirmed that), yet it keeps the same name?

[hurricanekid416]

I have a vacation to key west on August 15th I'm hoping this doesn't affect the island much

[fci]

This doesn't make sense. If it reforms, they'll rename it Dorian? Since when did that rule change? Last I read, in order for a storm to keep the same name, it has to maintain a closed low level circulation the entire time. The remnants have not had a closed LLC in several days...even though if a system forms, it may be from the remnants of Dorian, the name should change.

Right, this would not be named Dorian if it developed. All traces of Dorian are gone, with the possible exception that some of the moisture in the region was transported there by Dorian. No surface low or wave survived. It would be named "Erin". But development appears unlikely.

Wxman, I have the most faith and regard for you more than most others; but on Facebook; the NOAA-NWS responded to a question about a possible name and said "Dorian" (I posted it a page or so back in the thread).
It's not a particularly vital issue, discussing nomenclature; but makes for an interesting discussion nonetheless.
They didn't renumber the invest to 92 so they are associating it with 91 which clearly were the remnants of Dorian.
I'd tend to agree with you but not sure that NOAA-NWS does, or at least not the person who responded from them.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Cool that you have put together the forecast and map!!
What lead you to forecast the westerly track across SFL into the GOM.
NWS shows it headed north and taken by a trough off to the NE.
Your reasoning, (and this is not the least bit critical as you have put up a good presentation); I would just like the thought process for your conclusion

Thank you. I appreciate that I have put alot of faith in the GFS this year, it seems to be on its game pretty well so far (As opposed to the Euro and NAM and the wind speeds I got from the idea of a good enviroment, not from the models on that subject.

[BigB0882]

It seems the NWS is pretty confident in this going N and then NE. I would be shocked if this went into the Gulf as they are rarely wrong with such short time frames.

[HurricaneDREW92]

Cycloneye adds S2k Disclaimer.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Obviously, I'm not a pro met, and my predictions should be taken with a grain of salt
HRS
12: 30kts
24: 45kts
48: 60kts
72: 65kts
96: 65kts
120:75kts

[url=http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/821/3c0.png/http://img821.imageshack.us/img821/2899/3c0.png[/url]

Looks pretty scary though:
http://img845.imageshack.us/img845/6180/w7j.gif

Uploaded with ImageShack.us
Ha, thanks cycloneye

Track - about what I am thinking. Wind speeds - maybe higher.

Trying to be somewhat conservative

[hurricanekid416]

What are the odds it ends up in the Gulf