ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Should have 24 hours or so of pretty good upper air conditions. Will it be enough time for the surface to organize? Not so sure.

http://crownweather.com/index.php/tropi ... ther-page/
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Shear is low for the next 48 hours

[AdamFirst]

Just when I began to forget about Dorian...

[hurricanekid416]

I had a feeling there would be a Dorian part 3

[cycloneye]

Any graphical forecast models up yet? (i.e. spaghetti models)

[Tireman4]

I had a feeling there would be a Dorian part 3

Shoot, I am hoping for Dorian part 4, the fish storm.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/flash-wv.html
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Just my opinion but I think the ULL to it's SW is still stopping 91L from wrapping up on the south side. Also convection is waning a little as would be expected during DMin. I think tonight you might see this improve a lot during DMax and with the ULL moving off to the SW. Shear is low in the area it's headed towards and the gulfstream waters are warm.

[lester]

This is like one of those action movies where you're so sure the hero died, but he magically reappears full of wounds and vigor. Dorian refuses to die completely! He must single-handedly save the Atlantic tropical season!

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is fine, the peak isn't for another couple of weeks.

[otowntiger]

Any graphical forecast models up yet? (i.e. spaghetti models)

Thanks Cycloneye! You are right on top of it, as usual!! You provide a great service to this site.

So that is an interesting looking set of models. I just saw the Weather Channel's new Hurricane expert (I forget his name) say that it would have no impact on the US as a front was progged to sweep it north and northeast out to sea from its current position. These models seem to paint a very different story.

[cycloneye]

This is like one of those action movies where you're so sure the hero died, but he magically reappears full of wounds and vigor. Dorian refuses to die completely! He must single-handedly save the Atlantic tropical season!

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is fine, the peak isn't for another couple of weeks.

Make it six.

[Hurricane Alexis]

What are the globals seeing that the rest of the track guidance isn't? That's a big disagreement for it being the short term.

[ROCK]

Floaters will be up soon....not working right now. interesting remarks from the update.

REMARKS...VIS LOOP SHOWS LOW LEVEL CENTERS TRYING TO FORM ON THE LESS
SIDE OF ANDROS ISLAND (LIKELY ISLAND DRIVEN MORE THAN CONNECTIVELY DRIVEN
LOWERING OF THE PRESSURE ATTM)...HOWEVER PERSISTENT UPSTREAM CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX MAY AID PRESSURE LOWERING FOR A BETTER MORE PERSISTENT CLOSED
LLC LATER IN TIME AS THE PEAK OF THE WAVE PASSES WEST OF THE ISLANDS.
STILL CONVECTIVE WRAPS .25 ON LOG10 TO WARRANT A DT OF 1.0 AND INITIAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

[Tireman4]

What are the globals seeing that the rest of the track guidance isn't? That's a big disagreement for it being the short term.

The high pressure ridge maybe....



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[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

Live IR loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=10

[GCANE]

Lid is definitely coming of this thing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

GCANE, can you explain some of your statements for us dummies? Thanks.

Sorry. The 200mb PV associated with the ULL was what was keeping the lid on the lower / mid-level vorticity from expanding vertically.

Now that it has moved away, convection can fire up and raise the topopause height allowing the mid level vorticity to expand vertically, both up to the tropopause and also down to the surface.

[cycloneye]

Recon for Friday afternoon if needed.

Code: Select all

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
0330 PM EDT THU 01 AUGUST 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
         VALID 02/1100Z TO 03/1100Z AUGUST 2013
         TCPOD NUMBER.....13-062 AMENDMENT

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. REMNANTS OF DORIAN
       FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71        FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
       A. 02/1800Z                  A. 03/0600Z
       B. AFXXX 0304A INVEST        B. AFXXX 0404A DORAIN
       C. 02/1530Z                  C. 03/0400Z
       D. 27.0N 79.5W               D. 28.5N 79.5W
       E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2130Z      E. 02/0530Z TO 03/0930Z
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT          F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.


[cycloneye]

Recon for Friday afternoon

[GCANE]

Dorian floater back up

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... oater.html

[sunnyday]

I'm betting on the trough taking it away.

[fci]

This is like one of those action movies where you're so sure the hero died, but he magically reappears full of wounds and vigor. Dorian refuses to die completely! He must single-handedly save the Atlantic tropical season!

The Atlantic Hurricane Season is fine, the peak isn't for another couple of weeks.

Actually the peak is one month away; September 10th.

[fci]

Recon for Friday afternoon

Flight plan anticipates a northward movement?

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF DORIAN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 02/1800Z A. 03/0600Z
B. AFXXX 0304A INVEST B. AFXXX 0404A DORAIN
C. 02/1530Z C. 03/0400Z
D. 27.0N 79.5W D. 28.5N 79.5W
E. 02/1730Z TO 02/2130Z E. 02/0530Z TO 03/0930Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.