ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[northjaxpro]

I agree with most on here that has pointed out that if a LLC is trying to establish itself, it is just to the south of Andros Island. I'll be curious to see the latest pass soon.

[fci]

I think if they have tagged it as a reactivation of 91L and the former 91L was clearly the Dorian remains; then a TS would be called Dorian.

[northjaxpro]

This will stay Dorian since NHC re-designated this as 91L

[NDG]

This will stay Dorian since NHC re-designated this as 91L

That makes sense.

[gatorcane]

Long-range NWS Miami radar link out to Andros in the Bahamas:

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes

[RL3AO]

91L was tagged from the remnants of Dorian, which this still is. However, it completely lost a surface circulation so I would expect it to become a new tropical cyclone, not Dorian. It is similar to TD10/TD12 in 2005.

[GCANE]

Interesting development of another 850mb vorticity SW of Isle of Youth.

Came up quick.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/a ... wg8vor.GIF

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 91, 2013073018, , BEST, 0, 242N, 784W, 25, 1013, WV

[cycloneye]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1848 UTC THU AUG 1 2013

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DORIAN (AL912013) 20130730 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130730 1800 130731 0600 130731 1800 130801 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 78.4W 24.5N 80.5W 24.9N 82.3W 25.3N 83.6W
BAMD 24.2N 78.4W 23.7N 80.1W 23.3N 82.0W 22.8N 83.8W
BAMM 24.2N 78.4W 24.1N 80.2W 24.0N 82.0W 24.0N 83.6W
LBAR 24.2N 78.4W 24.1N 80.0W 24.3N 81.8W 24.6N 83.6W
SHIP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS
DSHP 25KTS 28KTS 32KTS 36KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130801 1800 130802 1800 130803 1800 130804 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 25.8N 84.4W 26.3N 85.7W 27.2N 87.7W 28.4N 89.2W
BAMD 22.3N 85.5W 21.7N 88.9W 22.2N 93.2W 23.5N 98.2W
BAMM 23.9N 84.8W 23.7N 87.5W 24.3N 91.2W 25.6N 95.4W
LBAR 25.1N 85.2W 26.9N 88.2W 28.9N 90.8W 30.2N 92.0W
SHIP 39KTS 44KTS 51KTS 59KTS
DSHP 39KTS 44KTS 51KTS 59KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 23.4N LONM12 = 76.5W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 45KT
LATM24 = 21.0N LONM24 = 66.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[fci]

91L was tagged from the remnants of Dorian, which this still is. However, it completely lost a surface circulation so I would expect it to become a new tropical cyclone, not Dorian. It is similar to TD10/TD12 in 2005.

From the NOAA NEW Hurricane Center Facebook page:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center And if it develops into a tropical cyclone again it would be called Dorian.

[northjaxpro]

Another thing I have noticed for now is that 91L has slowed down its forward motion considerably as it is entering into an area of weaker steering currently. It will stay that way until hopefully this trough will grab it over the weekend.

But, the slower movement and light shear is giving 91L a possibility to spin up into a modest tropical cyclone in the short term. This has been a tenacious fighter this system. It has a mind of its own in defying all the odds that is for sure.

[northjaxpro]

Just as I stated earlier, NHC confirmed on Facebook that this stays as Dorian.

[jonj2040]

From what I can see it looks like shear is a non issue for it this time at least for the time being. Also where can I view those shear forecasts? could a link be posted or PMd to me? Thanks!

mid:


upper:

[GCANE]

Lid is definitely coming of this thing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[RL3AO]

Should have 24 hours or so of pretty good upper air conditions. Will it be enough time for the surface to organize? Not so sure.

[hurricanekid416]

Lid is definitely coming of this thing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

What does that mean

[Ellsey]

This is like one of those action movies where you're so sure the hero died, but he magically reappears full of wounds and vigor. Dorian refuses to die completely! He must single-handedly save the Atlantic tropical season!

[otowntiger]

Any graphical forecast models up yet? (i.e. spaghetti models)

[cycloneye]

They fixed it now with the proper date of 8/1/13.


DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE DORIAN (AL912013) 20130801 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
130801 1800 130802 0600 130802 1800 130803 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 24.2N 78.4W 25.1N 79.8W 26.2N 81.2W 27.1N 82.3W
BAMD 24.2N 78.4W 24.7N 79.7W 25.3N 81.1W 25.8N 82.5W
BAMM 24.2N 78.4W 24.9N 79.7W 25.6N 81.1W 26.3N 82.4W
LBAR 24.2N 78.4W 25.0N 79.4W 26.3N 80.3W 27.7N 81.0W
SHIP 25KTS 29KTS 35KTS 40KTS
DSHP 25KTS 29KTS 28KTS 34KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
130803 1800 130804 1800 130805 1800 130806 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 28.1N 83.2W 28.9N 83.4W 28.3N 83.2W 28.0N 83.5W
BAMD 26.1N 83.8W 26.0N 86.6W 26.0N 90.5W 26.8N 94.1W
BAMM 27.0N 83.5W 27.3N 85.2W 27.1N 86.9W 26.9N 88.3W
LBAR 29.2N 81.1W 31.8N 78.2W 36.6N 70.4W 47.7N 54.7W
SHIP 44KTS 46KTS 46KTS 49KTS
DSHP 38KTS 41KTS 41KTS 43KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 24.2N LONCUR = 78.4W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 23.4N LONM12 = 76.5W DIRM12 = 294DEG SPDM12 = 10KT
LATM24 = 22.6N LONM24 = 74.6W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 70NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1013MB OUTPRS = 1015MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

[tolakram]

Lid is definitely coming of this thing

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

GCANE, can you explain some of your statements for us dummies? Thanks.