any one backing off ther #'s?

[hurricanedude]

The beginning of the season i went with 17/6/3
Now that the first 2 weeks in august look unfav for development...my guess of 5 named storms in Aug dont seem to be reasonable anymore......Im lowering my guess to 3....with 4 already named in june and july....that would be 7...I still suspect a semi busy sept...with 4 named storms....growing the total to 11....I think with all the yack at an early winter for most of the US this season...the season may shut off quicker than some think....an early start to winter would mean more cold fronts pushing off the coasts of both the EC and GC....which obviously is not to promising for development....however I do give October 2 named storms that form off the tail end of the aforementioned fronts....i think both form in the vicinity of the Bahamas. With that that brings the total storm to 13....I give november a shot at 1 named storm.....just because my guess has been reduced to 14...and that would get me there.
With all that said....i have reduced my # of total storms from 17 to 14
reduced my # of canes from 6 to 4
reduced my # 0f major canes from 3 to 2
Out of the 6 Hurricanes..I think only 1 will form in the Gulf and one will move into the gulf from the carribean...I target Eastern Gulf coast with the most risk from them. the other 4 will remain in atlantic with one perhaps threatening florida's EC and one threatening Bermuda...with perhaps some concern of a Mid-Atlantic threat late.
Of the two majors i am thinking....I think one for the gulf...perhaps a strong cat 3 weakenin to cat 2 b4 hitting the far eastern gulf coast. and the other passing in the middle of Bremuda and Hatteras as a cat 4. Still 14/4/2 still busy!
THIS IS WHAT I THINK AND NO WAY SHAPE OR FORM SUPPORTS THE THOUGHTS OF THE NHC OR S2K

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Nope, I'm still expecting lots of homebrew & systems that do not fully develop until around 60 West.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I am with you. Just lowered my guess to 3 for august as well the other day. Can't remember my preseason predicted numbers but I think I had 15 total 5 hurricanes and 2 majors, I think. I was already lower than most so will probably leave them there. But I do completely 100% agree with you on the gulf unless something drastically changes. Don't see it being anymore of a threat this year compared any other years. Too many fronts and troughs.

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm not backing off number yet, UNLESS the first 2 weeks go by in August without any development, then I think it's pretty obvious that the numbers need to be dropped...

[psyclone]

No

[Tireman4]

Neva. By the will of Wxman 57, I will keep my numbers. Wee Hee...

[thundercam96]

I've heard some posts previously* predicting this season too be like the 04' season in terms of SE US landfall risks....... Can anyone elaborate on the possibility of that?


*in other topics/threads

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2010 didn't see the formation of Earl until August 25. The season ended up the third active on record. So to answer the question, no. Why would I?

[MGC]

Not yet, however, if the current SAL conditions persist well into August then I think it would be prudent to lower ones totals.......MGC

[Hurricane Alexis]

Once the SAL exits the eastern Atlantic and the envrionment moistens up, I think we will see development. So no I wouldn't lower my numbers because September could always be hyperactive.

[galaxy401]

Won't lower my numbers unless August is quiet.

[Hammy]

never really made a prediction at this point for the entire season but there are numerous active seasons in the last few decades that were very quiet in the first half of August

[Ptarmigan]

No, still maintaining numbers.

[abajan]

2010 didn't see the formation of Earl until August 25. The season ended up the third active on record ...

Indeed. Have a look:

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ual22znKM10[/youtube]

[Tireman4]

Neva!!

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm definantely not in the season cancel camp, BUT with that said, if the next couple of weeks leading to the
end of August are quiet, then absolutely positively I don't see the extremely busy season happening that the
forecasters have been predicting, but definately not season cancel as I'm sure we will still get a few storms/hurricanes in September/October.

The only way I would call for a slow/low number season is if we go through the next 4 weeks(to mid september) without any activity.

[tolakram]

I think a cool neutral -> La Nina points to a later season, but I will agree that no activity by mid September would significantly lower numbers.

[Caribwxgirl]

I said 3 in August and i'm sticking to it. A lot more month left to go

[RainbowAppleJackDash]

I did- voted six or seven this August but I have a feeling that its gonna be 4 now...

[Hammy]

given what the models show, I'm going to stick with my forecast of 3 in August, and will add 15 total (the other 8 being 4 in Sep and 3 in Oct/Nov)