ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SapphireSea]

I did have a good time watching him fight. Going to Miami Thursday so I guess I won't have to worry about evacuation traffic.

Rush hour will give you all the traffic you need.

People still evacuate in Florida? That is a good one. Gas Station traffic is always amusing. Although, storm damage and pain is not.

[StormTracker]

Wxman57, I think it is about time to really get Bones back and call it like it is! I have long past grown weary of this system and the ULL has finally put the whammy on ex-Dorian. We can finally move on and look ahead to what August may have in store for us.

Yes, after what I am posting here bring Bones.

NHC_ATCF
invest_DEACTIVATE_al912013.ren
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201307301744
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END

Whatever happened to "Bones"? Somebody ate the "Bones"! Who ate the "Bones"? Sorry mods, I couldn't help it, wxman57 left the door wide open so I walked in! Back on topic: Dorian will always be a reference point and the most beautiful TW to remember and refer to from this day forth!

[fci]

I did have a good time watching him fight. Going to Miami Thursday so I guess I won't have to worry about evacuation traffic.

Rush hour will give you all the traffic you need.

People still evacuate in Florida? That is a good one. Gas Station traffic is always amusing. Although, storm damage and pain is not.

Actually, I know that The Keys do some mandatory evacuations.
A positive, selfish offshoot of that is that they suspend turnpike tolls!!
Last time there were evacuations for the Mainland has been a while but if a Cat 2 or higher were coming; I think the beach areas (east of the Intercoastal) I think would be evacuated and have been in the past.

[beoumont]

Tropical tease Dorian sticks tongue out at S. Florida weather enthusiasts, and towards Guantanamo Bay.

[beoumont]

A positive, selfish offshoot of that is that they suspend turnpike tolls!!
.

Part of the reason they suspended tolls was to avoid those long traffic back-ups that occur at each toll booth. Now that there are no more toll booths in Dade and much of Broward county, I wonder if they will suspend the fees. If you don't live there, cars don't have to slow down at all anymore, as cameras above the toll points take pictures of license plates and they simply send everyone a bill.

[HURAKAN]

Tropical tease Dorian sticks tongue out at S. Florida weather enthusiasts, and towards Guantanamo Bay.

[imghttp://img707.imageshack.us/img707/9916/8d86.jpg[/img]

Looks mostly associated with the upper level low generating convection due to divergence.

Tropical Weather Discussion:

TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE SW ATLC/CENTRAL CARIBBEAN EXTENDS FROM 25N78W TO 18N78W MOVING W 15-20 KT. WAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN AN AREA OF DEEP MOISTURE THAT COVERS THE W ATLC AND THE NW CARIBBEAN AS DEPICTED ON THE TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. WAVE IS MOVING W OF AN UPPER LOW THAT COVERS THE W ATLC WHICH IS ENHANCING ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE VICINITY NOT BY THE TROPICAL WAVE.

[wxman57]

Right, no more Dorian discernible on satellite or in the surface obs. Thunderstorms over eastern Bahamas are associated with the upper low. Quiet tropics for at least the next week.

[GCANE]

I am still watching this.

Mid-level water vapor sat loop has been filling in all day, albeit with light rain rate.

700mb and 500mb vorticity hanging in there.

12Z CMC & Euro are hinting.

What worries me is the big ULL to the east that could enhance ventilation and the clear 200mb PV to the west if something decides to spin up.

Too close to home to not dis this all together.

[wxman57]

You can keep an eye on the convection near the Bahamas east of the upper low, GCANE, but that's not Dorian's remnants.

[jhpigott]

I am still watching this.

Mid-level water vapor sat loop has been filling in all day, albeit with light rain rate.

700mb and 500mb vorticity hanging in there.

12Z CMC & Euro are hinting.

What worries me is the big ULL to the east that could enhance ventilation and the clear 200mb PV to the west if something decides to spin up.

Too close to home to not dis this all together.

Interesting. What do the CMC and Euro do with this?

[GCANE]

I am still watching this.

Mid-level water vapor sat loop has been filling in all day, albeit with light rain rate.

700mb and 500mb vorticity hanging in there.

12Z CMC & Euro are hinting.

What worries me is the big ULL to the east that could enhance ventilation and the clear 200mb PV to the west if something decides to spin up.

Too close to home to not dis this all together.

Interesting. What do the CMC and Euro do with this?

Seeing some small 850mb vorticity development. CMC has it going into FL and Euro up the east coast. Will be interesting to see the 00Z runs.

[GCANE]

You can keep an eye on the convection near the Bahamas east of the upper low, GCANE, but that's not Dorian's remnants.

Understood - thanks

[AtlanticWind]

You can keep an eye on the convection near the Bahamas east of the upper low, GCANE, but that's not Dorian's remnants.

NWS in Miami describes this as the remains of Dorian.

OVERALL...THURSDAY WEATHER SHOULD BE VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY. LOW
PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
DORIAN...LOCATED THIS AFTERNOON JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS...WILL DRIFT WESTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN BAHAMAS...WITH
SUBSIDENCE ON ITS WEST SIDE KEEPING CONVECTION MINIMAL NEAR THE
EAST COAST...WITH CONTINUING SCATTERED COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CLOSER TO THE GULF COAST. A LOW-LEVEL
BOUNDARY WILL SAG SOUTHWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PENINSULA AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS
FEATURE WILL HAVE LITTLE IMPACT ON SOUTH FLORIDA WEATHER...BUT IS
WHERE THE BEST CONVERGENCE WILL RESIDE AND WHERE MOISTURE WILL POOL.

[chaser1]

("tongue in cheek") Oh, make no mistake about it....Dorian is out there! Might be limited to an ounce of vorticity somewhere between 500mb-850mb and be a single small rotating CB....., er...wait a minute it was there a moment ago?? Oh well, maybe i'll stay up all night waiting for another diurnal max??

Who really knows...., wouldn't surprise me if there was "some" vorticity that might have remained at some level, but you know what??? I could use the few extra hours of sleep anyway As for the season, I'll say this much....if I lived out in Vegas and there was a betting line on development, i'd happily lay money down for some "good odds" and even go so far to say that I believe that there will be 2 more named storms by 9:00pm ( random hour LOL) Aug. 17th! One of which will ultimately be the season's 1st hurricane.

[Hurricane Alexis]

18z GFS shows a little 850mb vorticity, in line with the 12z CMC and Euro. Nothing will probably develop though, just an observation.


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[AtlanticWind]

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

00CMC redevelops dorian remnants off the florida coast as a mini storm

[ronjon]

Is ex Dorian coming back from the dead. Getting a nice circular convective mass and the ULL seems to have completely vanished.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

[Hurricane Alexis]

Is ex Dorian coming back from the dead. Getting a nice circular convective mass and the ULL seems to have completely vanished.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_timestamp.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_2&width=640&height=480

Globals are hinting at something developing, especially the cmc, but it's all speculation.

[GCANE]

850mb, 700mb, and 500mb vorticities are stacking up.

Rain rate is moderate.

This basically has a good structure with 200mb PV keeping a cap on it.

Frankly, this is starting to concern me.

Mid-level water vapor is filling in indicating a weakening of the cap.

Synoptically, this has a good set up to ramp up a west moving TC if it forms.

A strong ULL to the east to create a poleward outflow channel and a UL High (clear 200mb PV) to the west.

Could be an opportunity if it moves thru the Strait of FL into the GOM.

00Z CMC is more bullish on it compared to yesterday's 12Z run although it forecasts a track up the Gulf Stream.

A couple good hot towers and would very likely be game on.

[jhpigott]

If anything does get going at the surface, I suspect we might pick it up here (long range MIA radar)

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 1&loop=yes