18z GFS .. an animated look ... and EURO details

[Stormsfury]

Again, I generally ... ok, usually despise the 18z GFS run or otherwise, known in my book at the "RUNNING of the BULLS", but there wasn't a lot of detail deviation from the 12z GFS run on the surface level. Of course, the 18z GFS probably had some initialization issues ... but just like the EURO, the overall idea, IMO, is correct. Already I'm seeing the doomsday comparison to this being the "Donna 2 Run" which would definitely support the 1960 analog. IMO, this is NOT the time to panic, but to be on notice and monitor the progress of the storm, and be fully aware that there is a CHANCE, but not an imminent THREAT.

BTW, ignore the pressure details ... tonight's EURO initialized Isabel as a 1009 mb low ... Anyways, just ignore the pressure details ... the overall idea painted both by the GFS and the EURO are correct on the westward and maybe even a little south of due west movement.

Both are painting a general idea of a decent Midwestern trough. But look very similar in the the middle latitudes but differ in regards to Isabel. The EURO's deeper trough depiction, IMO, would actually look to pull Isabel quite rapidly and I'm not that sure about a cut-off low being that deep into KY at Day 7. But again, the general idea looks correct.

EURO day 7 500hPa

GFS depiction of 500mb heights

We're already fully aware that Isabel is making that westerly jog now.

18z GFS run animated JAVA loop

[Derek Ortt]

The pressure fields do make a big difference.

The fact that the EURO is calling a cat3/4 hurricane as a broad area of low-pressure renders the run as a pile of dung. In all liklihood, the system is being treated as if its shallow, as most broad areas of low-pressure are; thus, the effects of the UL to the west are neutralized. The EURO is utterly worthless in this instance, IMO, as is my favorite, the CMC

[Steve Cosby]

Boy, that is just wild. Runs straight up the coast.

I guess the one good thing showing up is that SHIPS seems to be convinced that the intensity is going down in the near term.

[tropicsPR]

Please confirm my interpretation of the animated GFS RUN. It puts the hurricane almost over Puerto Rico in day 5?. It is the first time I see an animated model.

[Derek Ortt]

See my previous post as to why SHIPS is most likely in error

[Steve Cosby]

See my previous post as to why SHIPS is most likely in error

Where? I went through two pages of your last messages and didn't seem to find it.

[Derek Ortt]

try tropical models

[wxman57]

Please confirm my interpretation of the animated GFS RUN. It puts the hurricane almost over Puerto Rico in day 5?. It is the first time I see an animated model.

Look closer - the low is north of 20N when it passes PR. It's rain that is shown down in PR.

Here's the new 7-day ECMWF - heading right for S. FL just as the GFS is depicting:

http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.ecmwf850t.html

[Steve Cosby]

Hum, just noticed your signature line on that post:

2003 Season Forecast -- Ignore the numbers, observe the flow patterns! The patterns suggest storms willl track through the Caribbean to the Gulf or southeastern U.S. - a high risk of major hurricane landfall, particularly in Florida.

I know you've had it out there a while.

[Stormsfury]

The pressure fields do make a big difference.

The fact that the EURO is calling a cat3/4 hurricane as a broad area of low-pressure renders the run as a pile of dung. In all liklihood, the system is being treated as if its shallow, as most broad areas of low-pressure are; thus, the effects of the UL to the west are neutralized. The EURO is utterly worthless in this instance, IMO, as is my favorite, the CMC

Sorry, Derek ... IMO, the CMC weakens the ridge in the ATL too quickly and for the life of me can't see why it hangs back a low off of NC for so long.

Anyways, with regards to the EURO. It did the same thing with Fabian, and did it miss a beat? No. Showed the turn to the north correctly, while the CMC was 7-8º further west and indicated a Cape Cod even 72 hours beforehand, when the EURO clearly showed the turn would occur much earlier than that. Pressures didn't matter 7 days out with Floyd when it showed the sharp NE turn into NC perfectly. The GFS did quite well in regards to keeping Fabian west correctly ... IMO, with that ridge being as strong as it is ... I see NOTHING that indicates to me that Isabel is going to have much of a northward component in the coming days, especially as much of a northward component as the CMC is depicting. I will hand it to the CMC for correctly developing Isabel has a mammoth powerhouse early in the game, while the GFS (totally out to lunch with the idea of the 3 separate individual vort maxes) and others were showing 2 separate vort maxes. However, note that the EURO also developed Isabel quite nicely as well ... IMO, even though, tonight's EURO has been the spark of some speculation, this is the third night in a row that the EURO indicates Isabel will be in the Southern Bahamas at the end of the period ...

SF

[JetMaxx]

Mike, IMHO south Florida is in for a world of hurt in about a week (Sept 16-17)....a world of hurt

[Derek Ortt]

I said the CMC is also worthless as well. The UKMET is probably handling this the best

[Derek Ortt]

I also dont see a northward motion. I was just saying that using the euro is a bit flawed in this instance

[Stormsfury]

I also dont see a northward motion. I was just saying that using the euro is a bit flawed in this instance

Understood ...

FWIW, I give Kudos to the CMC for accurately depicting the development of Isabel as she is ... a powerhouse ... (The EURO did well also), but the GFS and others were accurate in developing it, but so off with the details.

SF

[wxman57]

Hum, just noticed your signature line on that post:

2003 Season Forecast -- Ignore the numbers, observe the flow patterns! The patterns suggest storms willl track through the Caribbean to the Gulf or southeastern U.S. - a high risk of major hurricane landfall, particularly in Florida.

I know you've had it out there a while.

Well, let's see if I'm right then. In all my talks each spring, I show "the numbers" for the coming season up front, then go on to say that the numbers are basically useless information. Instead, look at the general flow patterns and SSTs. Combine that with a look at the QBO, El Nino/La Nina situation, and other "enhancing" factors and project what parts of the Atlantic Basin will be threatened in a season.

JB over at AccuWeather (whom I love to watch each morning, even though he's been nuts about Henri) has seen the same pattern for 2003. Take a look at his revised seasonal outlook projecting major problems for Florida.

[ameriwx2003]

Yes .. I saw Joe B's revised forecast also:):).. WEll wxman57 , I have a feeling that Isabel is going to at least make a strong attempt at proving you correct:):)

[GAStorm]

Mike, IMHO south Florida is in for a world of hurt in about a week (Sept 16-17)....a world of hurt

Perry,

I don't usually post on the tropics, but this is really starting to concern me. I have an aunt who just moved to West Palm Beach, FL!! :o I sure hope things do change since the winds from this cane will extend really far out!

[Steve Cosby]

JB over at AccuWeather (whom I love to watch each morning, even though he's been nuts about Henri) has seen the same pattern for 2003. Take a look at his revised seasonal outlook projecting major problems for Florida.

First, I also enjoy watching JB's videos each morning as much for entertainment value as anything. I play them on my second monitor while working on other stuff as a form of informative noise. He and Ken Reeves on their point/counter point deal can be hilarious.

Regarding JB's seasonal outlook: it's kinda hard to follow him sometimes through the grammar errors and typos but, yes, he is a big pattern follower.