CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[HURAKAN]

When do storms in this part of the world get Hawaiian names?

When they form between 140ºW and the International Day Line

[Yellow Evan]

When do storms in this part of the world get Hawaiian names?

They don't unless they form east of 140.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't like it's structure anymore.

[tolakram]

Live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8

IR: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... umframes=8


Goes W ftp: ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeswest/overview2/vis/

latest


larger image: http://imageshack.us/a/img13/31/vodt.jpg

[Yellow Evan]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
200 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

...FLOSSIE CONTINUES TO MOVE TOWARD THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.8N 149.3W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 560 MI...905 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...32 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY...INCLUDING THE ISLANDS OF MAUI...MOLOKAI...LANAI AND
KAHOOLAWE
*OAHU

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR
*KAUAI AND NIIHAU

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY THE HONOLULU NWS FORECAST
OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM HST...0000 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 149.3 WEST. FLOSSIE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A SLIGHT
SLOWING IN FORWARD SPEED.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 160 MILES...260 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE BIG
ISLAND LATE TONIGHT...MAUI COUNTY MONDAY MORNING AND OAHU MONDAY
NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ON KAUAI AND NIIHAU
MONDAY NIGHT...LASTING INTO TUESDAY.

RAINFALL...HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AS EARLY AS MONDAY
MORNING OVER HAWAII COUNTY AND MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER MAUI COUNTY...
WITH HEAVY RAIN SPREADING TO OAHU BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOSSIE IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER
THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI COUNTY...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15
INCHES POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER OAHU...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES
POSSIBLE...MAINLY WINDWARD. THIS RAINFALL COULD CAUSE LIFE-
THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

SURF...DANGEROUSLY LARGE SURF WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT EAST FACING
SHORES OF THE ISLANDS AS EARLY AS TONIGHT WITH THE LARGEST SURF
EXPECTED ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. BE AWARE THAT LARGE SURF CAN CAUSE
COASTAL ROAD CLOSURES...EVEN BEFORE THE STORM ARRIVES. PLEASE
CONSULT THE LATEST HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FOR INFORMATION
SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track at 50kts.

EP, 06, 2013072900, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1494W, 50, 996, TS

[tolakram]

00:15Z

[Yellow Evan]

00z Best Track at 50kts.

EP, 06, 2013072900, , BEST, 0, 196N, 1494W, 50, 996, TS

After what happened earlier, I won't be too shocked if they gave it 45. But I agree with 50.

[Kingarabian]

29/0000 UTC 19.8N 149.5W T3.0/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific

Looks like it has 20kts of shear over it. Should be entering slightly warmer waters soon however.

[Yellow Evan]

29/0000 UTC 19.8N 149.5W T3.0/3.0 FLOSSIE -- Central Pacific

Looks like it has 20kts of shear over it. Should be entering slightly warmer waters soon however.

I think convection will refire tonight. Not as much as it did last night though.

[tolakram]

[Kingarabian]

Wow I can't believe it nearly intensified into a Hurricane whilst being over 25C SST's.

[Yellow Evan]

Wow I can't believe it nearly intensified into a Hurricane whilst being over 25C SST's.

Sounds like Daniel 12, which you loved.

[Yellow Evan]

The more I look at that, the less damage I think Flossie will do. I'm expecting them to go with 45 knts now at the upcoming advisory.

[supercane4867]

Stays at 50kt

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

ONCE AGAIN...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CONSISTENT 3.0...45
KT...FOR CURRENT FLOSSIE INTENSITY FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB. A LATE
MORNING ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE EASTERN HALF OF FLOSSIE RATHER
WELL...INDICATING 45 KT AT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS ALONG
THAT PORTION WHICH JUST MISSED THE CENTER. WE WILL KEEP 50 KT AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEAR MISS AND FOR THE
CONTINUED GOOD OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL 34 KT WIND
RADIUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLOSSIE WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...THANKS TO ASCAT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT FLOSSIE HAS LOST A
BIT OF LATITUDE SINCE MIDDAY...TRACKING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AT 16 KT. THE LLCC IS LIKELY BENEATH A SMALL SET OF OVERSHOOTING
TOPS WHICH HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON. FLOSSIE HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN A COL NOTED IN 300 MB FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
KAUAI AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR 20N137W. SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF THE COL MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL SOUTHERLY TRACK
COMPONENT AND LOSS OF LATITUDE. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT FLOSSIE
IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE SPLIT FLOW EFFECTS OF THE BIG ISLAND...AT
LEAST ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT FLOSSIE IS MOVING INTO WILL
GRADUALLY CAUSE SYSTEM WEAKENING. SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH OF FLOSSIE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER HIGH NEAR KAUAI NOTED EARLIER. AS FLOSSIE MOVES
WEST...THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPOSE INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THE FORECAST TREND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FROM
THE LAST CYCLE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH
ACTUALLY INDICATES INCREASED SHEAR AT ALMOST ALL TAU SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOWING
FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY MORNING...THEN PASSING
SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF KAUAI THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY
BAMMS...STILL THE RIGHT OUTLIER...TAKES FLOSSIE JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANGE IN SYSTEM MOTION SINCE THIS MORNING.
THIS TRACK STILL LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LIKE UPPER HIGHS AND SHEAR ZONES PLAY
KEY ROLES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTING...IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT FLOSSIE IS VERY LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...INTRODUCING THE
DIFFICULTY OF ACCOUNTING FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS ON SYSTEM TRACK AND
INTENSITY. POST-BIG ISLAND TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY BE
QUITE DIFFERENT ONCE THESE TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE KNOWN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.6N 150.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 19.6N 152.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 156.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 20.0N 159.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 20.3N 162.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 20.7N 169.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 21.0N 176.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[Kingarabian]

WTPA41 PHFO 290240
TCDCP1

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 PM HST SUN JUL 28 2013

ONCE AGAIN...SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ANALYSIS YIELDS A CONSISTENT 3.0...45
KT...FOR CURRENT FLOSSIE INTENSITY FROM PHFO...JTWC AND SAB. A LATE
MORNING ASCAT PASS SAMPLED THE EASTERN HALF OF FLOSSIE RATHER
WELL...INDICATING 45 KT AT THE FAR WESTERN EDGE OF THE PASS ALONG
THAT PORTION WHICH JUST MISSED THE CENTER. WE WILL KEEP 50 KT AS THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS NEAR MISS AND FOR THE
CONTINUED GOOD OVERALL SYSTEM ORGANIZATION. THE INITIAL 34 KT WIND
RADIUS ALONG THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLOSSIE WAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY AS
WELL...THANKS TO ASCAT. SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS THAT FLOSSIE HAS LOST A
BIT OF LATITUDE SINCE MIDDAY...TRACKING SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST
AT 16 KT. THE LLCC IS LIKELY BENEATH A SMALL SET OF OVERSHOOTING
TOPS WHICH HAVE FORMED THIS AFTERNOON. FLOSSIE HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY
FASTER THAN A COL NOTED IN 300 MB FLOW BETWEEN AN UPPER HIGH NEAR
KAUAI AND ANOTHER ONE NEAR 20N137W. SLIGHTLY STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW
ALOFT WEST OF THE COL MAY ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL SOUTHERLY TRACK
COMPONENT AND LOSS OF LATITUDE. ANOTHER POSSIBILITY IS THAT FLOSSIE
IS BEGINNING TO FEEL THE SPLIT FLOW EFFECTS OF THE BIG ISLAND...AT
LEAST ALONG ITS WESTERN PERIPHERY.

THE SYNOPTIC SCALE ENVIRONMENT THAT FLOSSIE IS MOVING INTO WILL
GRADUALLY CAUSE SYSTEM WEAKENING. SSTS WARM SLIGHTLY ALONG THE
PROJECTED PATH OF FLOSSIE...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THIS SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN
AN AREA OF INCREASINGLY DRY AIR ALOFT DUE TO SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER HIGH NEAR KAUAI NOTED EARLIER. AS FLOSSIE MOVES
WEST...THIS HIGH IS EXPECTED TO IMPOSE INCREASING NORTH TO
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR ACROSS THE SYSTEM. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A
GRADUAL WEAKENING AND THE FORECAST TREND IS ABOUT THE SAME AS FROM
THE LAST CYCLE. THIS IS ALSO CLOSE TO SHIPS GUIDANCE...WHICH
ACTUALLY INDICATES INCREASED SHEAR AT ALMOST ALL TAU SINCE THE LAST
FORECAST CYCLE.

TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED IN THE SHORT TERM...SHOWING
FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND MAUI MONDAY MORNING...THEN PASSING
SOUTH OF OAHU MONDAY NIGHT AND SOUTH OF KAUAI THROUGH TUESDAY. ONLY
BAMMS...STILL THE RIGHT OUTLIER...TAKES FLOSSIE JUST NORTH OF THE
ISLANDS ACROSS WINDWARD WATERS. THE LATEST TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN
NUDGED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 36 HOURS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE SMALL CHANGE IN SYSTEM MOTION SINCE THIS MORNING.
THIS TRACK STILL LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

WHILE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES LIKE UPPER HIGHS AND SHEAR ZONES PLAY
KEY ROLES IN TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTING...IT IS IMPORTANT TO
NOTE THAT FLOSSIE IS VERY LIKELY TO TRACK ACROSS AT LEAST A PORTION
OF THE BIG ISLAND OVER THE NEXT 36 HOURS...INTRODUCING THE
DIFFICULTY OF ACCOUNTING FOR TERRAIN EFFECTS ON SYSTEM TRACK AND
INTENSITY. POST-BIG ISLAND TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS MAY BE
QUITE DIFFERENT ONCE THESE TERRAIN EFFECTS ARE KNOWN.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 19.6N 150.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 19.6N 152.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 19.8N 156.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 30/1200Z 20.0N 159.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 31/0000Z 20.3N 162.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 01/0000Z 20.7N 169.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 02/0000Z 21.0N 176.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[Yellow Evan]

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND

Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the Big Island late tonight, Maui county Monday morning and Oahu Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible on Kauai and Niihau Monday night, lasting into Tuesday.
RAINFALL

Heavy rainfall is expected to begin as early as Monday morning over Hawaii county and Monday afternoon over Maui county, with heavy rain spreading to Oahu by Monday night. Flossie is expected to produce total rainfall amounts of 6 to 10 inches over the Big Island and Maui county, with isolated maximum amounts of 15 inches possible, mainly windward. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches are possible over Oahu, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches possible, mainly windward. This rainfall could cause life- threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in the mountains.
SURF

Dangerously large surf will begin to impact east facing shores of the islands as early as tonight with the largest surf expected on Monday into Tuesday. Be aware that large surf can cause coastal road closures, even before the storm arrives. Please consult the latest hurricane local statement for information specific to your area.

[hawaiigirl]

http://www.prh.noaa.gov/hnl/satellite/H ... R_loop.gif

[Yellow Evan]

Flossie making a bit of a comeback.

[HURAKAN]

not very impressive