00:00 Tropical model suite for Isabel=Models continue west

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cycloneye
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00:00 Tropical model suite for Isabel=Models continue west

#1 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:42 pm

http://twister.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/ ... s/03091000

All the tropical models are westbound with Isabel.
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Derek Ortt

#2 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:44 pm

Well, not all are to the west.

Excluding the CLIPER, the vast majority of the models still only have this to about 65W in 5 days, which seems a tad bit slow. In addition, at the end, the heading changes to WNW. However, these models were initialized at 300, when the system is probably closer to 295 or 290 right now
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#3 Postby bayouwxman » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:46 pm

Not much of a SHIPS fan, but interesting to see how much weakening it forecasts...doubtful.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:47 pm

Agree on the heading that is lower than 300 I say 285-290 now.
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#5 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:47 pm

It's weakening it due to a technical aspect of the model. It is calculating POT based upon the CI, not the forecasted intensity
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#6 Postby Pebbles » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:54 pm

Um...not to sound like a dummy ...but can you explain that technical aspect of the forecast intensity dropping in newbie terms *winks and giggles* it went right over me lil' ol preggo head. Thanks
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Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:56 pm

a predictor is difference between CI and max potential intensity. The greater the difference, the more favorable for development and vice versa
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#8 Postby Pebbles » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:59 pm

Thanks hun!
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#9 Postby wow » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:01 pm

Image
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#10 Postby Pebbles » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:06 pm

I don't like it...not one bit..BAD BAD MODELS...your suppose to MAKE IT A FISH! *makes a fishie face* Thanks for the graphic hun...
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JetMaxx

#11 Postby JetMaxx » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:48 pm

I was just looking at that page....and those model proggs have major SoFla landfall written all over them.....very ominous.
Here's a large screen version (for fellow Webtv's)
http://maps.wunderground.com/data/image ... _model.gif

PW
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