Has anyone read this?

[mel38]

Last part of forecast interesting.

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

[wow]

no, i've never heard of that fragmented sentence before.

[mel38]

link did not post.
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/MLB/AFDMLB

[charleston_hugo_veteran]

HURRICANE ISABEL FORECAST TO APPROACH
THE EXTREME SE BAHAMAS TUESDAY THEN TEMPORARILY SLOW/STALL AS
EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH WEAKENS/LIFTS NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL THREAT
FROM THIS SYSTEM LIKELY TO BE BEYOND THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

[Steve Cosby]

The current one removed all references to Isabel. (but now talking about Henri)

I wonder if the guy writing the first one got his hand slapped.

[bayouwxman]

Latest discussion has no mention because it's just an update on their earlier forecast for any changes. NWS forecast offices generally release 2 full discussions per day...1 overnight, 1 early-mid afternoon. Any discussions between are just for any updates or changes, so you'll notice they typically don't go into nearly as much detail.

But, Steve, you also have a point...the forecasters have differing views on how much should be discussed sometimes. In this case though, I just think there is no reference made because Isabel is so far away and the discussion was just a quick update.

[Steve Cosby]

OK, that makes sense.

BTW, where did this "stall" thing come from. I haven't been able to follow the advisories today. Did NHC really stall the system in the Bahamas?

[bayouwxman]

NHC doesn't stall it in their forecasts because the potential stall is beyond their 5 day forecast period.

However, the scenario that the NWS Melbourne discusses is very possible. It's quite common to see a trough pass a storm by, leaving it in weak steering currents. That's why you're seeing some of the mid-range models forecasting a stall...they have that trough approaching, but not being deep enough to pull Isabel north. As a result, she's left behind until the next trough comes along.

[bev1]

If Issy does stall what stering currents will be in play and where will they send the storm. In other words--will this stall be good?

[bkhusky2]

Who knows what could happen if she was to stall, she could go anywhere.