CPAC: FLOSSIE - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

even the hurricane hunters are not noticing this. very surprised the TCPOD has no missions scheduled. IMO, this should be 6 hourly fixes as it is a US threat

[cycloneye]

Latest microwave not bad.

[supercane4867]

ASCAT still impressive looks stronger than 45kt

[Yellow Evan]

ASCAT still impressive looks stronger than 45kt

Yea, Flossie is not toast yet.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Watch for Hawaii and Maui

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE ADVISORY NUMBER 13

Issued: 500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

Flossie continues moving westward toward the state of Hawaii

SUMMARY OF 500 PM HST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
LOCATION: 19.0N 143.2W
ABOUT 775 MI E OF HILO HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS: 50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT: W OR 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE: 1000 MB or 29.53 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
A tropical storm watch has been issued for Hawaii and Maui counties.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR:
*HAWAII COUNTY
*MAUI COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
At 500 pm HST, 0300 UTC, the center of tropical storm Flossie was located near latitude 19.0 north, longitude 143.2 west. Flossie is moving toward the west near 20 mph, and this motion is expected to continue for the next 24 to 48 hours.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb, 29.53 inches.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
RAINFALL

Heavy rainfall may begin as early as Monday morning over Hawaii county and Monday afternoon over Maui county.

WIND

Tropical storm force winds are expected as early as Monday afternoon.

SURF

Large surf will impact east facing shores possibly as early as Sunday afternoon with the largest surf expected on Monday.

NEXT ADVISORY
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM HST.

$$
FORECASTER BURKE




TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP062013
500 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT FLOSSIE HAS MAINTAINED ITS CURRENT
INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES
NEAR AND JUST NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
JUST AHEAD OF FLOSSIE ALONG WITH MARGINAL SSTS AND SOME DRY AIR
INTRUSION IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE FLOSSIE TO SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS IN LINE WITH ALL INTENSITY MODELS.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275 DEGREES AT 20 MPH WHICH HAS
CHANGED LITTLE OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. FLOSSIE IS EXPECTED TO
SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY BUT CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD SOUTH OF
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ALMOST ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW FLOSSIE NEAR THE BIG ISLAND IN ABOUT 48 HOURS.
THUS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY AND THE
BIG ISLAND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/0300Z 19.0N 143.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 28/1200Z 19.4N 145.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 29/0000Z 19.8N 149.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 29/1200Z 19.9N 152.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 30/0000Z 19.9N 155.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 31/0000Z 19.9N 161.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 01/0000Z 20.0N 167.6W 25 KT 30 MPH
120H 02/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BURKE

[Kingarabian]

00z ATCF Stays at 45kt
EP, 06, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1423W, 45, 1000, TS

Flossie really deserves more attention
US is facing a direct hit from tropical cyclone and most people don't even realize lol

Probably cause Flossie is gonna be weak by the time it gets to Hawaii....lol now if it was something like Iniki it would be known.

No this is not some weak Tropical Depression that may hit the Islands. If you look at the latest visible it is clear that it may have strengthened. Flossie's main wind and rain power, which are located to it's north remain healthy.

We need Recon as the storm could be stronger. And this is a state. Hawaii is a state of the USA. We all saw how crap Dorian looked and for some reason it was considered a TS.

[Yellow Evan]

00z ATCF Stays at 45kt
EP, 06, 2013072800, , BEST, 0, 189N, 1423W, 45, 1000, TS

Flossie really deserves more attention
US is facing a direct hit from tropical cyclone and most people don't even realize lol

Probably cause Flossie is gonna be weak by the time it gets to Hawaii....lol now if it was something like Iniki it would be known.

No this is not some weak Tropical Depression that may hit the Islands. If you look at the latest visible it is clear that it may have strengthened. Flossie's main wind and rain power, which are located to it's north remain healthy.

We need Recon as the storm could be stronger. And this is a state. Hawaii is a state of the USA. We all saw how crap Dorian looked and for some reason it was considered a TS.

I agree. We need to stop downplaying this storm, right now, if the GFS is correct, Flossie will be the 3rd strongest storm to impact Hawaii since 1959. This storm is weak and still has convection, which means it can produce heavy rains over the big island. My Daillia 89 comparison still stands as that was a bit of a rainmaker.

[Kingarabian]

They were even considering sending out recon to Dorian in the earlier today... But zero mention for Flossie.

[supercane4867]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
523 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE REMAINS ON TRACK TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.
FURTHER HYDROLOGIC THREAT INFORMATION WILL BE COVERED BY FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES AS
CONDITION WARRANTS.

[Yellow Evan]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
523 PM HST SAT JUL 27 2013

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...

...HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT...

TROPICAL STORM FLOSSIE REMAINS ON TRACK TOWARDS THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.
HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE TUESDAY NIGHT FOR ALL OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.

THIS WILL BE THE FINAL HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK ISSUED FOR THIS EVENT.
FURTHER HYDROLOGIC THREAT INFORMATION WILL BE COVERED BY FLASH
FLOOD WATCHES...FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS AND FLOOD ADVISORIES AS
CONDITION WARRANTS.

Eh, Hawaii goes under flash flood watches all the time. So, it's not that important.

[JonathanBelles]

My latest post combines my thoughts on all three systems in the Atlantic and Central Pacific:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ig-island/

[Kingarabian]

Code: Select all

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
                3.0 / 999.1mb/ 45.0kt

     
             Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
                3.0     3.2     3.7

[Hurricane Alexis]

I saw the GFS and I understand what you're saying. It could be a decent TS by the time it gets to the islands. Recon should go since Hawaii isn't too far from this system and was Dalila and Iniki the shortest time span between 2 TC's affecting Hawaii?

[Yellow Evan]

My latest post combines my thoughts on all three systems in the Atlantic and Central Pacific:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ig-island/

Nice, though Felicia 09 also posed a bit of a threat to Hawaii.

[Kingarabian]

My latest post combines my thoughts on all three systems in the Atlantic and Central Pacific:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ig-island/

Nice, though Felicia 09 also posed a bit of a threat to Hawaii.

Felicia didn't do squat. I stayed up with my camera and all for nothing. Barely got any squalls because it's rains and winds were packed to the north and only the remnants of it's center passed through the Islands.

Let's not forget that Felicia was on major Recon life support. They were the ones finding 35kt winds despite how poor it looked.

[Kingarabian]

Just sucking out energy from the ITCZ into itself.

[Blown Away]

ASCAT still impressive looks stronger than 45kt

[mg]http://bbs.typhoon.gov.cn/attachment/1307/thread/79_86846_ade42c5c54dba56.png[/img]

That's a good looking ASCAT!!!

[Kingarabian]

ADT numbers raising this past hour.

Code: Select all

 CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.1 / 997.9mb/ 47.0kt

     
 Final T#  Adj T#  Raw T#
  3.1     3.2     3.9

[HURAKAN]

that ASCAT pass is quite old, if you noticed the center is east of 138W, now Flossie is west of 143W

[Yellow Evan]

My latest post combines my thoughts on all three systems in the Atlantic and Central Pacific:
http://jonathanbelles.wordpress.com/201 ... ig-island/

Nice, though Felicia 09 also posed a bit of a threat to Hawaii.

Felicia didn't do squat. I stayed up with my camera and all for nothing. Barely got any squalls because it's rains and winds were packed to the north and only the remnants of it's center passed through the Islands.

Let's not forget that Felicia was on major Recon life support. They were the ones finding 35kt winds despite how poor it looked.

Well, it was quite an epic major hurricane. It did bring 14 inches of rain to the island as well.