Isabel beginning turn to West..........

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Dean4Storms
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Isabel beginning turn to West..........

#1 Postby Dean4Storms » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:39 pm

Sat. pics indicate that Isabel's outflow pattern has shifted to a E to W orientation this evening which is an early indicator of a track change with intense Hurricanes. Look for Isabel to begin a more west movement by morning. This change has occured quickly this late afternoon.
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#2 Postby wx247 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:48 pm

I haven't had a chance to look at a loop this evening, but if what you are saying is true... all I can say is :o !
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#3 Postby southerngale » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:52 pm

Just looked at visible loop...maybe just a wobble, but it may have begun.
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#4 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:54 pm

We will see!!!! :wink:
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#5 Postby Agua » Tue Sep 09, 2003 6:59 pm

The storm appears to be moving more westerly in the last several frames. Stairstepping? Won't know for quite a while, I suppose. The outflow has shifted to an east/ west orientation as Dean states. Very striking change. Whether that means a damned thing, I haven't a clue, but it's definitely there.
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#6 Postby dixiebreeze » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:04 pm

DT WXRISK IS ABSOLUTELY CONFIDENT ISABEL WILL TURN WEST TONIGHT OR MORNING AT THE LATEST AND I ABSOLUTELY BELIEVE HIM. I AGREE WITH THIS THREAD, TOO, THAT IT HAS BEGUN. EVEN AN UNTRAINED EYE CAN SEE THE PATTERN CHANGE IMO.
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Josephine96

#7 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:06 pm

Dixie you're right.. Isabel will get trapped and head straight towards Florida unless something turns her.. Could be a very scary set up
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Derek Ortt

#8 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:32 pm

Of course it will turn. This is an easy forecast change. The northward track was initially seen by few; however, this turn has been extremely well forecasted and has been expected (except by GFS hugging NHC) to occur at precisely this time by the CMC and UKMET models.
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#9 Postby Lindaloo » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:36 pm

From what I have been reading the turn west was expected this evening.
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#10 Postby Rainband » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:36 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Of course it will turn. This is an easy forecast change. The northward track was initially seen by few; however, this turn has been extremely well forecasted and has been expected (except by GFS hugging NHC) to occur at precisely this time by the CMC and UKMET models.
west????
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Derek Ortt

#11 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:45 pm

yes west. The turn is underway and also a slight acceleration is underway
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#12 Postby rob8303 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:50 pm

WOW :o Time for me to eat crow. I requested fried crow Galvestonduck. I'm sure you'll be happy to oblige. THE WEST TURN IS UNDERWAY. I DON'T THINK ANYTHING HAS BEEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVER AT STORM2K.

I WAS WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!!!!

Shall I hang my head in shame?
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Yep

#13 Postby wxman57 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:51 pm

Yep, Isabel is turning west just as the models had been forecasting. No big surprise.
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#14 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:53 pm

Just look at the imagery and look at the almost arrowhead like appearance of Isabel saying "I'm heading west, young man."

Image

SF
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#15 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:56 pm

LOL.. It wouldn't surprise me if she did say that... Isabel is 1 tough chick... I wouldn't wanna be her prom date lol
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#16 Postby Stephanie » Tue Sep 09, 2003 7:57 pm

rob8303 wrote:WOW :o Time for me to eat crow. I requested fried crow Galvestonduck. I'm sure you'll be happy to oblige. THE WEST TURN IS UNDERWAY. I DON'T THINK ANYTHING HAS BEEN THIS ANTICIPATED EVER AT STORM2K.

I WAS WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG, WRONG!!!!

Shall I hang my head in shame?


Oh stop! Even the best blow it!!! :wink:
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#17 Postby zoeyann » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:05 pm

This most certainly seems to be the turn. And is it just me or is the ULL in front of it seem to be dissapating a bit. Nobody fuss if that sounds crazy I am amature. But if this is so is the only thing the US can hope for is that magical trough to save the coast or will that come too late?
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#18 Postby mf_dolphin » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:06 pm

Rob we've all eaten our share of crow this year and we're just at the mid-point of thre season :-)
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#19 Postby JtSmarts » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:07 pm

Stephanie is right, don't tell me no one has ever been wrong here.
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Josephine96

#20 Postby Josephine96 » Tue Sep 09, 2003 8:23 pm

I've been wrong plenty of times at Go Pbi and never been asked to eat crow lol.. That would be a nice way to put it lol...

Oh the joys of sitting here In Central Florida knowing you have a monster lurking about 2,000 miles away...
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