ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dorianclimo2.gif[/ig]

LOL the always humorous world of statistical analysis.

[Hurricaneman]

This is at exactly 16N on microwave which means its south of the NHC plots and the model plots if the west movement continues this may slip south of the big islands which could be more dangerous than if this goes north of the islands

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[Tireman4]

[quote="wxman57"]More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

Oh you are so funny. I will give you your due, you did nail Ike landing within 10 miles. Oh how the Summer wakes up the Heat Miser. Sigh....LOL

[wxman57]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dorianclimo2.gif[/ig]

LOL the always humorous world of statistical analysis.

Yes, quite interesting. While I made the statements above tongue-in-cheek, climo does say that it takes a heck of a ridge to the north of the system and good timing for a system NOT to recurve before reaching the Gulf. I was quite surprised that when I extended the search circle from 65NM to 150NM that there were still only 2 storms that reached the Gulf, as the circle extended south below 14N.

By the way, I just extended the ring to 200NM and got 127 storms in the circle. Still, only 2 reached the Gulf. I have to re-evaluate the probabilities...

[ROCK]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dorianclimo2.gif

great observation and I completely agree....

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Looking much better the past couple of hours:

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/6213/u4iu.jpg

Dorian is making a comeback

[Aric Dunn]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

[img]http://home.comcast.net/~cgh57/dorianclimo2.gif[/ig]

LOL the always humorous world of statistical analysis.

Yes, quite interesting. While I made the statements above tongue-in-cheek, climo does say that it takes a heck of a ridge to the north of the system and good timing for a system NOT to recurve before reaching the Gulf. I was quite surprised that when I extended the search circle from 65NM to 150NM that there were still only 2 storms that reached the Gulf, as the circle extended south below 14N.

By the way, I just extended the ring to 200NM and got 127 storms in the circle. Still, only 2 reached the Gulf. I have to re-evaluate the probabilities...

yeah, however there is always one inherent flaw.. tomorrow when its a 150 miles west do it again it will be a different set of storm.. actually extrapolate it position about 200 miles west and see what it does..

[torrea40]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4min
dry air in water vapor loop seems to be shrinking in front of Dorian
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html …

[RL3AO]

There is a bit of a weakness, but it probably wouldn't feel it unless it got above 20 to 22N.

Otherwise, that pattern looks like it could get pretty far west if it misses the gap off the East Coast.

[ROCK]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

I asked a local pro-met (SE Texas) about this today - how there's so much recurve chatter and supposed model guidance to suggest it, yet it hasn't shown up in the track yet. I said it looks like it's going to the Gulf - to me - and he agreed.

However, he said there's high pressure over Texas and he doesn't see it being an issue for us 'at this time'.

That said, can someone point out this H he's talking about over Texas? Thanks in advance.

no need to worry about something 10 days away....there might not be much left after the islands anyway. The EURO and more globals are really weakening it as it approaches the islands.

[RL3AO]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4min
dry air in water vapor loop seems to be shrinking in front of Dorian
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html …

King TUTT over the Bahamas!

[Alyono]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4min
dry air in water vapor loop seems to be shrinking in front of Dorian
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html …

JB should understand by now that SAL moves from east to west. Thus, it is the air BEHIND Dorian that matters.

He does not always focus on science, however

[cycloneye]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4min
dry air in water vapor loop seems to be shrinking in front of Dorian
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html …

King TUTT over the Bahamas!

The San Juan NWS talks briefly about the TUTT.

TUTT WILL WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDS FROM THE EAST

[fci]

So ...fci ..... what would you like your "new" name to be?? ...... j/k

Walter White or Heisenberg.

[Blown Away]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

I learned with Ike that the legends make their own way and write their own unique story and you can throw the climo and statistics out the window! Never in a million years did I think Ike jumps over 20N/60W and find its way to GOM and especially Texas!!

[Weatherboy1]

I agree with the view that climatology strongly argues against a Gulf hit, much less a FL one, given the latitude at which Dorian started his trans-Atlantic trek. But boy is that ever a solid model consensus for a W to WNW move for the next five days! Can always change this far out, but if I don't see much of a northward hook at the end of these forecasts by, say, Saturday morning, I'll be getting more concerned here in FL.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DORIAN ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013

...DORIAN MAINTAINS ITS STRENGTH AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
OVER THE OPEN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 37.8W
ABOUT 1670 MI...2690 KM E OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DORIAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 37.8 WEST. DORIAN IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/H. THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL TURN
TOWARD THE WEST BY LATE FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS AS DORIAN MOVES OVER WARMER WATERS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 999 MB...29.50 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART


TROPICAL STORM DORIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
500 PM AST THU JUL 25 2013

AFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B
OVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/16. SEVERAL OF THE MORE RELIABLE
MODELS...SUCH AS THE GFS RUN OFF THE NEW WCOSS SUPERCOMPUTER...MADE
A SIGNIFICANT SOUTHWARD SHIFT ON THE 12Z MODEL CYCLE. HOWEVER...THE
OVERALL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DID NOT SHIFT SOUTHWARD...BUT RATHER
CONVERGED EVEN MORE TIGHTLY AROUND THE PREVIOUS NHC FORECAST
TRACKS. AS A RESULT...ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR REASONING. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...THE MAIN DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE MODELS CONTINUES TO
BE THE FORWARD SPEED OF DORIAN. THE ECMWF IS ONE OF THE FASTER
MODELS SINCE IT WEAKENS DORIAN ALMOST IMMEDIATELY AND MOVES IT
QUICKLY IN THE BRISK EASTERLY TRADE WIND FLOW...WHEREAS THE UKMET
AND HWRF MODELS MAINTAIN A VERTICALLY DEEPER AND MORE ROBUST
TROPICAL CYCLONE... WHICH MOVES SLOWER IN THE DEEP-LAYER STEERING
FLOW. GIVEN THAT THE GFS-ENSEMBLE MEAN...HWRF...AND UKMET MODELS
HAVE HANDLED THE INTENSITY AND TRACK OF DORIAN THE BEST THUS
FAR...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THOSE SOLUTIONS. THE
NEW ADVISORY TRACK IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND
IS IDENTICAL TO BUT REMAINS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS
TRACK MODEL TVCN.

AFTER SURVIVING THE DIURNAL CONVECTIVE MINIMUM PERIOD...DORIAN IS
NOW MOVING OVER 26C SSTS AND TOWARD EVEN WARMER WATERS...AND ALSO
INTO THE CONVECTIVE MAXIMUM PERIOD. DORIAN IS FORECAST TO REMAIN IN
A LOW SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR ANOTHER 72-96 HOURS...DURING WHICH TIME
AT LEAST SOME GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AS THE CYCLONE
MOVES OVER SSTS ABOVE 27C. BY DAY 5...THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW PATTERN
IS QUITE UNCERTAIN WITH DORIAN POSSIBLY MOVING INTO SOME MODERATE
TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS. GIVEN THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY SHOWS MODEST
STRENGTHENING AND MAINLY FOLLOWS THE LGEM...SHIPS...AND HWRF
MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/2100Z 16.5N 37.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 26/0600Z 17.2N 40.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 26/1800Z 17.8N 44.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 27/0600Z 18.5N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 27/1800Z 19.2N 52.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
72H 28/1800Z 20.4N 59.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 29/1800Z 21.1N 65.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 30/1800Z 21.9N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[RL3AO]

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4min
dry air in water vapor loop seems to be shrinking in front of Dorian
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/flash-wv.html …

He does not always focus on science, however

Well thats a massive understatement...

[Aric Dunn]

good discussion...

"AFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B
OVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY."

[artist]

good discussion...

"AFTER A BRIEF DISRUPTION IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTIVE PATTERN
EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON...DORIAN HAS MADE A COMEBACK WITH A BURST OF
COLD-TOPPED CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED
LOW-LEVEL CENTER. IN ADDITION...A 1728Z TRMM OVERPASS INDICATED A
NEARLY CLOSED LOW-LEVEL EYE HAD DEVELOPED BENEATH A WEAK MID-LEVEL
EYE FEATURE. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAIN AT 55 KT
AND 45 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY...AND AN EARLIER ASCAT-B
OVERPASS AT 1230Z INDICATED SURFACE WINDS OF AT LEAST 48 KT NORTH
OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS
50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY."

wow, an eye? Hmmm, how is this going to ffect the islands?