ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ROCK]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

Well being one of those that relies on Climo most of the time; I would be shocked if the GOM verified for Dorian.
Wxman57 showed the map on one of the threads and Dorian would be the first to do that.
So, yeah, I will probably join witness protection if that happens.......

nice one!!!

[Bluefrog]

So ...fci ..... what would you like your "new" name to be?? ...... j/k

[Cyclenall]

ATCF updated the 18z Best Track and is up again to 50kts.

AL, 04, 2013072518, , BEST, 0, 164N, 370W, 50, 999, TS

They can't make up they're minds!

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/mimic-tpw/natl/anim/latest72hrs.gif

That animation is really cool for another reason, you can see the influx of moisture from the ITCZ feeding right into it directly like a hooked supercell with a tornado hanging on the end of it. That product would be an excellent way to find out if and when it disconnects.

[gatorcane]

18Z Guidance:

[gatorcane]

Latest Intensity Guidance:

[wzrgirl1]

Pretty tightly clustered for the next 5 days. Question may be more of intensity rather than position at this point.

18Z Guidance:

http://img543.imageshack.us/img543/9208/n4n2.png

[gatorcane]

Looking much better the past couple of hours:

[Blown Away]

The 18z end position is a classic strike point for SFL!! Hope the intensity stays down!

[wxman57]

http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/1038/msvt.jpg
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html

Interesting they see Dorian as TS on day 5 and a low on day 6/7 and generally moving westward...Maybe we see long range intensity going down with next NHC advisories??

I wouldn't infer much from the "L" vs. tropical storm symbol on the 7-day map. Since there is no official NHC 7-day position, the person who drew the map simply extrapolated a possible location and put an "L" there to represent Dorian. I doubt the 7-day map would look any different even if Dorian was forecast to be a Cat 5 at day 5.

[tailgater]

So I have reservations at a really nice hotel in Key West for one week from tomorrow. Cancel, go, or wait a couple more days? I think I can cancel 72 hours out. Thanks in advance.

Send me instead, I'll take pics

I certainly wouldn't cacel till the last possible day, might be a nice experience.

[jhpigott]

http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/1038/msvt.jpg
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html

Interesting they see Dorian as TS on day 5 and a low on day 6/7 and generally moving westward...Maybe we see long range intensity going down with next NHC advisories??

I wouldn't infer much from the "L" vs. tropical storm symbol on the 7-day map. Since there is no official NHC 7-day position, the person who drew the map simply extrapolated a possible location and put an "L" there to represent Dorian. I doubt the 7-day map would look any different even if Dorian was forecast to be a Cat 5 at day 5.

wxman57 - any change to your gut thoughts yesterday about Dorian potentially being a Carolina threat? I know we are a long way out . . . just curious

[wzrgirl1]

Reservation is all yours! Pier House. 1 Duval Street.

So I have reservations at a really nice hotel in Key West for one week from tomorrow. Cancel, go, or wait a couple more days? I think I can cancel 72 hours out. Thanks in advance.

Send me instead, I'll take pics

I certainly wouldn't cacel till the last possible day, might be a nice experience.

[Blown Away]

http://img585.imageshack.us/img585/1038/msvt.jpg
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/day4nav_color.html

Interesting they see Dorian as TS on day 5 and a low on day 6/7 and generally moving westward...Maybe we see long range intensity going down with next NHC advisories??

I wouldn't infer much from the "L" vs. tropical storm symbol on the 7-day map. Since there is no official NHC 7-day position, the person who drew the map simply extrapolated a possible location and put an "L" there to represent Dorian. I doubt the 7-day map would look any different even if Dorian was forecast to be a Cat 5 at day 5.

Cool, always wondered why they did that...I have noticed over the years they are pretty darn accurate placing that low at 7 days, usually within a few hundred miles!

[ROCK]

18Z suite looks like FL or GOM track and less of a recurve......still though a ways out

[Senobia]

I spy Texas in the latest model map with some GFS ensembles heading in that direction.....hmmm...if a GOM solution verified then CLIMO huggers are going to go into hiding....

I asked a local pro-met (SE Texas) about this today - how there's so much recurve chatter and supposed model guidance to suggest it, yet it hasn't shown up in the track yet. I said it looks like it's going to the Gulf - to me - and he agreed.

However, he said there's high pressure over Texas and he doesn't see it being an issue for us 'at this time'.

That said, can someone point out this H he's talking about over Texas? Thanks in advance.

[Aric Dunn]

Image from about an hour ago. just as the recent burst started to get going.. make a good come back from earlier sat and microwave images.

[torrea40]

Image from about an hour ago. just as the recent burst started to get going.. make a good come back from earlier sat and microwave images.

Due West now.???

[gatorcane]

So here is the 12Z GFS 500MB steering 180 hours from now, which typically steers tropical cyclones. Notice how there is more of a zonal pattern across the Northern United States with very little evidence of any kind of trough that we saw in yesterday's GFS runs with High pressure in the Western Atlantic.

We are still too far out to say if Dorian will threaten the East Coast of the United States but the possibility seems to be there despite what climatology suggests:

[wxman57]

More climo fun from Coastal Services Center. I plotted all storms which passed within 150NM (about 180 miles) from Dorian's current point. 93 such storms were found. Of those, only 2 entered the Gulf - Ike (2008) and the 1915 Galveston hurricane. From this, we can conclude that:

There is about a 2.15% chance that Dorian will enter the Gulf. However, if it does enter the Gulf, there is a 100% chance it will hit Houston/Galveston!

[Stormlover2012]

Well it would be hitting texas if it did for another 10-12 days long ways out