ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

Well it definitely seems like some sort of primitive eye. Check out the 12Z AMSU which showed an eyewall trying to build at that time:



In my opinion, this was a TC before they said it was. Therefore, an intensity of anywhere between 45-55 knots is reasonable to me.

[SFLcane]

13:45Z

http://imageshack.us/a/img15/8389/oqdx.jpg

Wow! indeed best looking system thus far this season

[ronjon]

I doubt the sea surface temperature will have any impact on Dorian. We've seen north atlantic tropical cyclones maintain hurricane intensity in marginal SSTs.

[HurrMark]

I wonder what the upper tropospheric anomaly is...if it is abnormally cold, the 80 degree "threshold" may not necessarily apply (ala 'Vince', 'Epsilon', etc.)

[Tireman4]

Now I'm starting to get skeptical again

Skeptical? Just curious...about...not to be nosey....LOL

[Tireman4]

If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

Why do you think that?

Oh please do not use that word. LOL. It will be 5 years this September since he "paid" us a visit. Goodness gracious.

[NDG]

Another look.

[hurricanekid416]

Will the nhc go with 40mph or higher

[EyELeSs1]

Will the nhc go with 40mph or higher

NHC went with 50mph

15 GMT 07/24/13 14.3N 29.9W 50 1002 Tropical Storm

[Blown Away]

I doubt the sea surface temperature will have any impact on Dorian. We've seen north atlantic tropical cyclones maintain hurricane intensity in marginal SSTs.

I agree, based on the intensity models I think it's the shear that tears Dorian apart down the road...Looks good now!!

[hurricanekid416]

Forecast takes it to 60 kts

[hurricanekid416]

Forecast takes it to 60 kts

Sorry I mean 50kts

[HurricaneTracker2031]

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.

TS DORIAN NOW!

50 MPH WINDS

[vbhoutex]

If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

Why do you think that?

The models show a northerly track and then a bend west with a strong ridge and that's what ike did

Believe me I KNOW what Ike did, first hand!! I had not looked at the models yet this morning when I asked the question. Dorian has to get through some cooler waters,shear ahead of him, and keep getting rid of the dry air before I start worrying about him, but to say the least I will be watching!!

[Gustywind]

Another look.

http://i20.photobucket.com/albums/b245/ ... 76b8cb.jpg

With my untrained eyes of amateur, looks like banding are already trying to form and even expand nicely. Let's see what could happens with Dorian during the next couple of days. Interresting system for a ... 24 th July.

[weathernerdguy]

Could be a lot like hurricane bertha you know from 2008..

[MGC]

The cyclone really improved its organization overnight. No doubt now a TS. Will be an interesting feature to track across the Atlantic. Hello CV season.......MGC

[Blown Away]

12z...LGEM brings Dorian to Cat 2...Most intensity models now keep Dorian as strong TS or Cat 1...Big shift from 06z...

[meriland23]

http://img856.imageshack.us/img856/1006/svz7.jpg
12z...LGEM brings Dorian to Cat 2...Most intensity models now keep Dorian as strong TS or Cat 1...Big shift from 06z...

The more time goes by, the more they assume shear/winds/etc aren't going to be 'as' strong or effective as originally thought,

[galaxy401]

The Public Advisory and Discussion still isn't out yet despite it showing it is out on the website...