ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

meriland23 · #501 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:36 am

it is booking its rotation speed insanely rapidly, so maybe the reason for this supposed eyewall?

#502 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:36 am

This is the newest IR image I can get. Have to zoom in since SSD hasn't repositioned the floater.

#503 Postby **GCANE** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:40 am

ADT

Scene Type : SHEAR

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/adt/odt04L.html

#504 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:40 am

13:15Z (that's 9:15AM EDT)

#505 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:42 am

Might be watching the strangest two hours of the entire season.

artist · #506 Postby **artist** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:43 am

Dvorak =

meriland23 · #507 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:44 am

RL3AO wrote:Might be watching the strangest two hours of the entire season.

Was looking for the 'like' button where you posted this and realized I was not on FB.. sigh.. well I agree with ya~

#508 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:44 am

Next image will be the 13:45Z, but the FTP site is running about 25 minutes behind.

ftp://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/goeseast/overview2/vis/

I was hoping to get better clarity from the latest, but I'm just not sure. The eye like feature looks like an eye, but there appears to be either shear or dry air, or both, impinging on the SW quadrant.

HurrMark · #509 Postby **HurrMark** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:47 am

Small systems like this can change intensity rather quickly (upwards and downwards)...doubt it's a hurricane, but it certainly intensifying faster than the NHC forecasted. It is moving a bit north of forecast, however, which may mean it would traverse more "cooler" waters...which could possibly keep it in check.

hurricanekid416 · #510 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:47 am

If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

#511 Postby **vbhoutex** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:48 am

hurricanekid416 wrote:If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

Why do you think that?

#512 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:49 am

Looking at the visible loop from this page: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... r=AL042013

And considering best track moved up TS formation to early this morning I would not be surprised if this is a strong TS at this point, undergoing RI. It just looks too darn good to be an illusion.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

otowntiger · #513 Postby **otowntiger** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:50 am

jlauderdal wrote:
ronjon wrote:
meriland23 wrote:Do you guys think it will be a GOMer, ECer, or a fish... IYO[/quote

Strong Atlantic ridging forecast to remain over the next week by the global models. Too early to say but at least for now doesn't look likely to recurve into the open Atlantic.

long runner looks probable, been awhile since we had a long runner make it all the way across, its rather uncommon

Certainly is possible, but even with the models suggesting its path could come all the way across the chances are still less than 50/50 (inmho) just because its so rare. The other, perhaps bigger question is what kind of intensity will be looking at? It seems that at this point guidance tells us it may not be that potent by the time it gets closer to the Islands, but I know things can and will change.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

hurricanekid416 · #514 Postby **hurricanekid416** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:53 am

vbhoutex wrote:
hurricanekid416 wrote:If this was September this may be like hurricane ike in terms of track

Why do you think that?

The models show a northerly track and then a bend west with a strong ridge and that's what ike did

#515 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:54 am

Things are changing quick right now. This is a tropical cyclone which has been intensifying apparently over the past 6-12 hours.

BobHarlem · #516 Postby **BobHarlem** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:56 am

This is currently a pretty small system, the intensity swings could get pretty crazy, in both directions, for a while.

#517 Postby **CrazyC83** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:02 am

Best looking storm of the season so far I would say. If it was 45 then, I would have it at 50 kt now. IMO, it became a TD at 1800Z yesterday (but it was right to wait) and a TS at 0000Z.

#518 Postby **AdamFirst** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:08 am

It brings me joy that right now TD4 looks better than Chantal ever did

#519 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:09 am

13:45Z

#520 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 9:10 am

Now I'm starting to get skeptical again

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