ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

meriland23 · #481 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:05 am

How could it be forming a eyewall yet? It is just born...

#482 Postby **gatorcane** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:08 am

Amazing, that certainly looks like an eye-like feature to me. Here is the latest VIS shot which shows this:

meriland23 · #483 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:09 am

gatorcane wrote:Amazing, that certainly looks like an eye-like feature to me. Here is the latest VIS shot which shows this:

[img ]http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/6199/zo3u.jpg[/img]

Could be just a pocket of dry air or something right?

Gustywind · #484 Postby **Gustywind** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:12 am

TS numbers on the increase. Notice the prononced wnw track.

24/1145 UTC 14.2N 28.7W T2.0/2.0 04L
24/0545 UTC 13.5N 27.1W T1.5/1.5 98L

#485 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:13 am

At 1200 UTC, 24 July 2013, TROPICAL STORM DORIAN (AL04) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.0°N and 29°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 18 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al042013/

#486 Postby **northjaxpro** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:13 am

Yeah, gatorcane, the more I view the imagery and the approximate LLC location, it does look more like an eye beginning to form. We may be wrong in assuming that, but I have been tracking these cyclones for years, and right now it sure does look like a one is forming. We will know soon enough.

#487 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:14 am

NDG wrote:At 1200 UTC, 24 July 2013, TROPICAL STORM DORIAN (AL04) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.0°N and 29°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 18 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.

Source?

#488 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:18 am

tolakram wrote:
NDG wrote:At 1200 UTC, 24 July 2013, TROPICAL STORM DORIAN (AL04) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 14.0°N and 29°W. The current intensity was 35 kt and the center was moving at 18 kt at a bearing of 285 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb.

Source?

This is the position & strength the 12z tropical models were started.

http://www.ral.ucar.edu/guidance/realti ... /al042013/

#489 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:19 am

I don't think its an eyewall, but I've been wrong before.

meriland23 · #490 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:20 am

gatorcane wrote:Amazing, that certainly looks like an eye-like feature to me. Here is the latest VIS shot which shows this:

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/6199/zo3u.jpg

Does not make sense, how could it possibly, aren't eyewalls a feature of a M hurricane?

#491 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:21 am

meriland23 wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
Does not make sense, how could it possibly, aren't eyewalls a feature of a M hurricane?

Eyewalls typically being to form on strong tropical storms. However, I'm quite skeptical that this is an eye wall. I'm betting on an illusion.

#492 Postby **wxman57** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:25 am

New model guidance has 14N/29W and 45 kts. Agree with that intensity estimate.

meriland23 · #493 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:27 am

wxman57 wrote:New model guidance has 14N/29W and 45 kts. Agree with that intensity estimate.

hmph.. 35 kts to 45 kts in the blink of a eye? Well that is interesting..

#494 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:28 am

12:45Z

meriland23 · #495 Postby **meriland23** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:28 am

tolakram wrote:12:45Z

[img ]http://imageshack.us/a/img23/3285/6sf1.jpg[/img]

that sure looks like a eye to me...

#496 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:29 am

It doesn't look like an eye on IR...but if thats not, it is by far the best illusion I've ever seen.

#497 Postby **NDG** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:30 am

A few things to note from the 12z SHIPS guidance.
It shows that the coolest SSTs Dorian will track through is near 25.3 deg C over later today and tomorrow morning by tomorrow evening it should be back over 26 deg C waters and warmer as it keeps tracking westward.
Shear will be under 10 knots over the next 36 hrs and to slowly increase to near 20 knots by Sunday morning, definitely not strong enough shear to destroy it.
The only thing that I see that looks like it will negatively encounter is dry air by 72 hrs where it shows 700-500 mb RH to get down to low 40s.

#498 Postby **tolakram** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:32 am

MIMIC-TPW shows a decent moisture envelope, and good spin.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... /main.html

Aric Dunn · #499 Postby **Aric Dunn** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:35 am

dont think its a dry slot they typically fade quickly. i am on.my.phone but i guess will have to wait for a better microwave image.. or the next couple hours see if that feature persists

Chris_in_Tampa · #500 Postby **Chris_in_Tampa** » Wed Jul 24, 2013 8:35 am

Best track data was updated to reflect the storm becoming a tropical storm at 2am EDT this morning:

AL, 04, 2013072406, , BEST, 0, 136N, 272W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 30, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, FOUR, M,
AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 45, 1002, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 30, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,

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