ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cainer]

Is that an eye-feature trying to form, or just a dry slot? It seems to line up with the centre position...

[hurricaneCW]

I wouldn't be too concerned about this one regardless of track but perhaps it may dictate where more powerful storms may go come August/September.

[tolakram]

12:15Z image just finished

[Blown Away]

TD4 might become a dud, but it's existence is symbolic of something much more dire.

Maybe, the models not picking up on any significant development through August 9th. I'm sure we will see more activity in August, but models not picking up on that so far. Seems most of the models now shear TD4 into remnants after 120 hours...

[NDG]

All I have to say this morning is "long live the GFS!"
Dorian is giving a much needed respect to this model that was trashed this past weekend by many people this past weekend.
The ECMWF is back to its conservative mode for tropical development that it was back few years ago and the GEM/CMC is just as crazy as it was before its upgrade.

[wxman57]

Model guidance now says "Dorian" with 35 kts.

[gatorcane]

Model guidance now says "Dorian" with 35 kts.

Agree on it now a T.S. Looks rather good on SAT imagery this morning, though the area of convection is relatively small. NHC will upgrade this to Dorian for the 11AM EST advisory.

[GCANE]

Lots of overshooting tops - doing some serious cirrus building.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240845.GIF

[NDG]

Yes wxman 57, Dorian is now born.

AL, 04, 2013072412, , BEST, 0, 140N, 290W, 35, 1006, TS, 34, NEQ, 30, 0, 0, 30, 1012, 150, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, DORIAN, D,

[Aric Dunn]

Model guidance now says "Dorian" with 35 kts.

if thats the beginning of a partial eywall forming it maybe just tad stronger...

[GCANE]

Big area of 30-knot barbs on multi-sat surface analysis

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 0_SWHR.GIF

[gatorcane]

00Z FIM model from Earth Research Laboratory 168 hour forecast, slight WNW bend at the end and has it passing just north of the islands towards SE Bahamas:

[GCANE]

Latest 85GHz Microwave - don't think there is an eyewall yet.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.80pc.jpg

[northjaxpro]

Looks pretty good this morning. It seems to pulling together nicely and imo this has been Dorian for quite sometime. I can' t say for sure if that it a potential "eyewall" feature we are seeing on satellite imagery. I think it may be more of a dry slot as well, but I have to say that it is very intriguing to look at this morning. I wouldn't be shocked at all if this is already at 45-50 kts right now. Just my own thoughts.

[Blown Away]

00Z FIM model from Earth Research Laboratory 168 hour forecast, slight WNW bend at the end and has it passing just north of the islands towards SE Bahamas:

[img]http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/6211/no8z.png[/img

Classic CV track towards SFL IMO, fortunately it appears a very weak system at best...

[NDG]

This vis satellite loop shows very clearly the convection wrapping around Dorian's LLC this morning.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240845.GIF

[tolakram]

This vis satellite loop shows very clearly the convection wrapping around Dorian's LLC this morning.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/product ... 240845.GIF

Sure looks like an "eye like" feature to me.

[NDG]

Latest 85GHz Microwave - don't think there is an eyewall yet.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... W.80pc.jpg

I hate to call it an eyewall on the current vis satellite but this microwave pass is 3 hrs old.

[tolakram]

Heat content may be limiting for the next day or so, depending on track.

[Blown Away]

12z

12z...LGEM brings Dorian to Cat 2...Most intensity models now keep Dorian as strong TS or Cat 1...Big shift from 06z...